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Thread: What kind of trade value does Sano have

  1. #61
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    Trade all-star 3B for "ace." Ace blows out shoulder. Franchise toast for 10 years. Sign me up.

  2. #62
    Let's assume good health for Sano (with the shoulder). I then took a look at Jonah Keri's Trade Value chart. This chart would be specific for the Twins. I probably wouldn't trade Sano for David Price just because of where the Twins would be on the Win Curve.

    Players whose value would seem to be similar
    -Matt Moore-TB
    -Jurickson Profar-Tex
    -Xander Boegarts- Bos
    -Kyle Seager- Sea
    -Shelby Miller-Sea

    Sano's the best power-hitting prospect in the Minors and power tends to seems to be a valued skill as evidenced by the Trumbo trade.

    Just for the record- Buxton's value would seem to be similar to Will Myers or Yasiel Puig. This is how high Buxton's value would seem to be.

  3. #63
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    Well, take a look at the hypothetical trade from the other team's perspective. If you're the Phillies, do you deal Hamels for Sano, straight up? If that's even close to "yes" then the Twins probably shouldn't take that deal.

    Regardless of where the Twins are at in their "success cycle", they should spend their cash before dealing prospects. They still basically need improved players at ALL positions, not just ace, not just 3B.

  4. #64
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    Trade all-star 3B for "ace." Ace blows out shoulder. Franchise toast for 10 years. Sign me up.
    By that logic we should never do anything. It's just not the right way to justify it.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    By that logic we should never do anything. It's just not the right way to justify it.
    Pitchers are riskier than position players. That's just a fact. Trading Sano for a pitcher would be utterly insane. The chances of it happening are literally zero. You may as well speculate on the odds Joe Mauer is moved to shortstop.

  6. #66
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    Pitchers are riskier than position players. That's just a fact. Trading Sano for a pitcher would be utterly insane. The chances of it happening are literally zero. You may as well speculate on the odds Joe Mauer is moved to shortstop.
    Not to mention that when it comes to pure "wins", a position player is more valuable than a pitcher. A 66 win team needs better players and a lot of them. Position players that supply 2-4 wins are easier to find than their pitching equivalent and they generally cost less. It's also more common to see superstar position players that will deliver as many 7-8 wins in a season.

    Elite pitching is rarer, which makes it harder to find and more expensive to purchase.

    But when you're looking for wins, which the Twins are, your best bet is to do that through position players, not by giving up the farm for elite pitching. When you're a playoff team, that elite pitching can be the difference between an ALDS sweep and the World Series but the Twins aren't a playoff team... Nothing close to a playoff team. Right now, they need reliable players that deliver wins. That means better position players and "good enough" pitching, maybe with upside to be better than that.

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  8. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by josecordoba View Post
    Let's assume good health for Sano (with the shoulder). I then took a look at Jonah Keri's Trade Value chart. This chart would be specific for the Twins. I probably wouldn't trade Sano for David Price just because of where the Twins would be on the Win Curve.

    Players whose value would seem to be similar
    -Matt Moore-TB
    -Jurickson Profar-Tex
    -Xander Boegarts- Bos
    -Kyle Seager- Sea
    -Shelby Miller-Sea

    Sano's the best power-hitting prospect in the Minors and power tends to seems to be a valued skill as evidenced by the Trumbo trade.

    Just for the record- Buxton's value would seem to be similar to Will Myers or Yasiel Puig. This is how high Buxton's value would seem to be.
    Shelby Miller is with St. Louis. Would you trade Sano for Shelby Miller? Shelby won 15 games as a rookie this year. What about Sano for Lance Lynn of the Cardinals or Joe Kelly of the Cards?

  9. #68
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    Pitchers are riskier than position players. That's just a fact. Trading Sano for a pitcher would be utterly insane. The chances of it happening are literally zero. You may as well speculate on the odds Joe Mauer is moved to shortstop.
    All of that is fine and good but you can doomsday any scenario like that comment above. That justification is unnecessary and silly. There are lots of less silly, more valid reasons not to deal Sano.

  10. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    All of that is fine and good but you can doomsday any scenario like that comment above. That justification is unnecessary and silly. There are lots of less silly, more valid reasons not to deal Sano.
    Sorry, but when an idea has so little merit (zero), it tends to deserve a briefer response.

  11. #70
    Senior Member Triple-A Monkeypaws's Avatar
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    Everyone knows the starting rotation was job 1 for Ryan, but let's not forget how crap the offense has been these last 3 seasons:

    2011, 13th in AL runs
    2012, 10th
    2013, 13th

    Dead last in home runs 2 of those seasons.

    Sano is a long-term piece that can held reverse that trend. To trade him for more pitching would be a big mistake.

  12. #71
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    Who wins more games for their team, Justin Verlander or Miguel Cabrera?

  13. #72
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    The original question I posted should have included an extension for David Price (approximately a deal at $23-25/yr through 2020). In this scenario, we pay for a known quantity versus a potential HOF bat.

    Does that change anything for anyone? Sano's age 22-27 season under team control (although arb will be expensive by 2017-2020, let alone re-signing him) or Price?

    I love the idea of having Sano be a life-long Twin. Do we just ride him until FA? Can we afford to keep both he and Buxton on elite contracts? Arcia, Meyers will also be extremely expensive at the same time if they both project as we believe they will. Would staggering the salaries be advantageous?

    2014: Price, Nolasco, Hughes, Correia and Gibson/Deduno
    2015: Price, Nolasco, Meyer, Hughes and Gibson
    2016: Price, Nolasco, Meyer, Hughes and Gibson
    2017: Price, Meyer, Nolasco, Gibson & Stewart
    2018: Meyer, Price, Gibson, Stewart & Thorpe/Berrios

    That is how championships are built. Strong pitching. We can't have our cake and eat it too. Sano would be a huge loss. But Price is an elite pitcher that is a proven commodity. The SF Giants won a WS with a limited offense, but great pitching. Pitching wins in the post-season. Sano for an extended Price? I am a YES.

  14. #73
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tibs View Post
    Who wins more games for their team, Justin Verlander or Miguel Cabrera?
    Not sure if this is rhetorical or not but... Miguel Cabrera.

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  16. #74
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    Gentlemen, please tone down the bickering.

    Thank you.

  17. #75
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    Brock, got to disagree here. I'd argue that Verlander, when pitching like an ace, is going to be move valuable. I get that he pitches once every 5 games, but the pitcher has far more influence over the course of that game than a hitter will.

  18. #76
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Brock, got to disagree here. I'd argue that Verlander, when pitching like an ace, is going to be move valuable. I get that he pitches once every 5 games, but the pitcher has far more influence over the course of that game than a hitter will.
    Upon further thinking, Miggy and Verlander aren't the best comparisons. They're probably about equal and WAR supports that thinking. What kills Miggy is his defense.

    But compare Mike Trout to Verlander and I firmly believe that Trout is more valuable over 162 games. Verlander dominates once every five games but Trout helps the team win 150+ times a season.

  19. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Not sure if this is rhetorical or not but... Miguel Cabrera.
    No it was an honest question. I agree with you that position players are more valuable in terms of wins over an 162 game season.

  20. #78
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    The most valuable commodity in baseball is cost-controlled impact talent. Teams essentially never trade players in that category unless they are about to be free agents.

    Sano at $500,000 is, by a massive, huge, gargantuan amount, more valuable than Price at $25 million. It's not even close or subject to any possible debate.
    Last edited by twinsnorth49; 12-13-2013 at 10:23 PM.

  21. #79
    Senior Member Triple-A amjgt's Avatar
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    In any given offseason we could throw 24.5 million at the best pitcher available. He might not be QUITE to Price's level, but he'd probably be close.

    At that point we have Sano and "almost Price" instead of just Price and the money is equal

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  23. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I guess that's true... But there's a 95+% chance that phone call will never come so it's really a moot point.
    Moot point? I would wager that Ryan takes calls that eventually bring up Sano's status on a weekly, if not daily basis, as Sano's career blossoms further, those calls will become more frequent and more intense in the interest level (and the "what's it gonna take?" level).

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