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Thread: What kind of trade value does Sano have

  1. #81
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Here's one way to look at it that I don't think has been mentioned.

    If you polled all 30 General Managers, how many would choose one versus the other. In the case of Sano-Price, off the top of my head, I think I'd say 20-25 would choose Sano. If someone wants to take stab at that, it might make for a fun way to spend 15 minutes this offseason.

  2. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    Here's one way to look at it that I don't think has been mentioned.

    If you polled all 30 General Managers, how many would choose one versus the other. In the case of Sano-Price, off the top of my head, I think I'd say 20-25 would choose Sano. If someone wants to take stab at that, it might make for a fun way to spend 15 minutes this offseason.
    The problem is that you need to establish the terms of Price's contract.

    Without an extension, all 30 take Sano, no question.

    With a reasonable extension, 25 or so take Sano, but of course we don't have enough information to make a precise estimate.

    Some posters have been looking forward and assuming Sano comes up and establishes himself as a top young player. In that instance, all 30 would again prefer Sano, without a doubt.

  3. #83
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    The problem is that you need to establish the terms of Price's contract.

    Without an extension, all 30 take Sano, no question.

    With a reasonable extension, 25 or so take Sano, but of course we don't have enough information to make a precise estimate.

    Some posters have been looking forward and assuming Sano comes up and establishes himself as a top young player. In that instance, all 30 would again prefer Sano, without a doubt.
    I don't think all 30 take Sano. But we can come up with a reasonable estimate based on Sabathia and Santana's deals. How about they rip up his existing deal and hand him a 7-year, $175M contract?

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    I don't think all 30 take Sano. But we can come up with a reasonable estimate based on Sabathia and Santana's deals. How about they rip up his existing deal and hand him a 7-year, $175M contract?
    We can look back at how many teams were willing to offer that kind of money to Sabathia and Santana, as a starting point. There weren't very many.

    I'm confident that all 30 would take Sano as of today. The reason is straightforward - once a team had Sano, they would easily be able to trade him for Price, or Cliff Lee, or another top starter if they so chose.

    Price is a commodity that only is an option for a handful of clubs. Sano is a commodity that everyone wants, which offers much more flexibility (and thus potential utility).

  5. #85
    Senior Member Triple-A Teflon's Avatar
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    Unless the Twins have a great underground pharmaceutical lab, don't expect Sano's power to build into his late 20s. It's starting to look like after the PED ban that players' power curves don't peak and decline - they just decline.

    Are Aging Curves Changing? from Fangraphs

  6. #86
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    The most valuable commodity in baseball is cost-controlled impact talent. Teams essentially never trade players in that category unless they are about to be free agents.

    Sano at $500,000 is, by a massive, huge, gargantuan amount, more valuable than Price at $25 million. It's not even close or subject to any possible debate.
    One possible area of debate would be that while we know Sano is cost controlled, we certainly DON'T know he's "impact talent."

    Id go so far as to say that what isn't close or subject to debate is that in the near future--2014 for sure--Price will be more valuable than Sano in terms of winning MLB games, which is, after all, the goal.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  7. #87
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teflon View Post
    Unless the Twins have a great underground pharmaceutical lab, don't expect Sano's power to build into his late 20s. It's starting to look like after the PED ban that players' power curves don't peak and decline - they just decline.

    Are Aging Curves Changing? from Fangraphs

    Apples and pineapples (that is wOBA and wRC+ and not isoP or HRs). And Small Sample Size bias on either size (like how many 19, 20 and 21 year olds and 39, 40 and 41 year olds were in the majors) skews the curve on both edges. I suspect that the rest of it (25-35 or so) where there is a significant sample size the variations are between the standard deviation, so all curves are identical.

    Unless they provide sample size (and it is significant on the edges, like p<0.01 or something), you cannot be confident with the conclusion they are reaching.

    All it takes is one Trout and one Harper to skew your data that way, if you have an age group size of 2.
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  9. #88
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    One possible area of debate would be that while we know Sano is cost controlled, we certainly DON'T know he's "impact talent."

    Id go so far as to say that what isn't close or subject to debate is that in the near future--2014 for sure--Price will be more valuable than Sano in terms of winning MLB games, which is, after all, the goal.
    I think that's very much up for debate. Look at Wil Myers and James Shields in 2013. I know you don't like WAR much but Shields was a ~4 win player while Myers was a 2.5 win player in less than two-thirds of a season. Whether you like WAR or not, Myers was a valuable player by almost any metric.

    I don't expect Sano to come up and dominate that quickly, most guys don't post Myers-esque rookie seasons. But it's not cut-and-dried, either. Sano has a chance to come up and be a valuable player almost immediately if he's healthy.

    Price has a huge advantage in being more valuable in 2014 but it's not impossible that both players stay healthy and have similar impacts for their respective teams.

  10. #89
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Apples and pineapples (that is wOBA and wRC+ and not isoP or HRs). And Small Sample Size bias on either size (like how many 19, 20 and 21 year olds and 39, 40 and 41 year olds were in the majors) skews the curve on both edges. I suspect that the rest of it (25-35 or so) where there is a significant sample size the variations are between the standard deviation, so all curves are identical.

    Unless they provide sample size (and it is significant on the edges, like p<0.01 or something), you cannot be confident with the conclusion they are reaching.

    All it takes is one Trout and one Harper to skew your data that way, if you have an age group size of 2.
    Yep. Most guys aren't in the Majors at age 23, much less age 21. Only the best players are going to get significant playing time at that age while the age 26-28 seasons are rife with middling prospects who take time to mature or bomb out of MLB entirely.

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