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Thread: 2014 Twins ZiPS Projections

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    I saw that. The forward should be ok. ZIPS is based on the previous 4 years of performance. Would those numbers have been better had Mauer been a 1B? He certainly would have played more games. I don't think ZIPS backward adjusts for a positional change. The only way it might matter is a move from catcher.
    That sounds right. If you believe Mauer's hitting rate stats will notably improve simply by virtue of moving from C to 1B, then yeah, ZiPS isn't going to help you.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    That sounds right. If you believe Mauer's hitting rate stats will notably improve simply by virtue of moving from C to 1B, then yeah, ZiPS isn't going to help you.
    it is intuitive that the wear in the body of a catcher would effect their hitting. There aren't enough examples to study for a trend.

    Biggio was a much better hitter after he left catching, but he left younger before his prime.

    Bench had a poor year hitting as a 3B following an injury riddled last year as a catcher, but he was a little older and probably not healthy.

    Torre had a monster year in 1971 following his last year as a catcher, but he also didn't catch in 1969.

  3. #23
    ZiPS still gives Mauer a 40% chance at .300 - one has to remember that for very high achievers, there's more downside than upside. If you start with Mauer's .317 4-year average, knock a few points off for age, and then just stick that as the middle of neat bell curve, you're going to tend to overrate great players. There are a lot more scenarios in which a 31-year old Mauer hits .300 than ones in which he hits .340. A lot more in which he hits .280 instead of .360. And even more in which he hits .260 rather than .380.

    ZiPS does consider Mauer differently as a 1B than as a catcher and generally has Mauer's bat lasting longer and playing more games long-term than as a C.

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  5. #24
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    Curious what the group thinks of the Mauer projection now?

  6. #25
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    There was SO much venom against these projections before the season. Kind of funny to see them as overly optimistic at this point.

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