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Thread: Article: Betting Against The House

  1. #41
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    The signing itself isn't the problem. In fact, I think there's a good chance that he's worth his contract. In the five years where he pitched a full season, Pelfrey has averaged between 1.1 - 1.8 WAR a year depending on if you use BR or FG. If he is somewhere in the middle and is worth 1.5 WAR each of the two years he's signed, then he is worth every penny.

    The problem is that I don't know what direction the team is going.

    Pelfrey at his best takes the team from 76 to 78 wins, and that win projection may already be optimistic. This is assuming that Pelfrey will be at his best and the other options are replacement level. Both of which aren't even close to being a given.

    More important is that Pelfrey isn't an asset. Teams aren't lining up to acquire 30+ year old below league average starters. You can find those guys every year on the free agent market. However, teams will give you a call about young, cost controlled pitching and possibly offer some real value.

    If the team were in need for a back end starter to fill out the rotation on a contending team, then this move would make perfect sense. But in the position they are in, it makes more sense to give innings to Gibson, Worley and Diamond. Go for it or build for the future. Attempting to reach mediocrity shouldn't be the goal.

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    Oxtung (12-16-2013)

  3. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    The signing itself isn't the problem. In fact, I think there's a good chance that he's worth his contract. In the five years where he pitched a full season, Pelfrey has averaged between 1.1 - 1.8 WAR a year depending on if you use BR or FG. If he is somewhere in the middle and is worth 1.5 WAR each of the two years he's signed, then he is worth every penny.

    The problem is that I don't know what direction the team is going.

    Pelfrey at his best takes the team from 76 to 78 wins, and that win projection may already be optimistic. This is assuming that Pelfrey will be at his best and the other options are replacement level. Both of which aren't even close to being a given.

    More important is that Pelfrey isn't an asset. Teams aren't lining up to acquire 30+ year old below league average starters. You can find those guys every year on the free agent market. However, teams will give you a call about young, cost controlled pitching and possibly offer some real value.

    If the team were in need for a back end starter to fill out the rotation on a contending team, then this move would make perfect sense. But in the position they are in, it makes more sense to give innings to Gibson, Worley and Diamond. Go for it or build for the future. Attempting to reach mediocrity shouldn't be the goal.
    If Correia gets moved (I know, a BIG if!), there's plenty of room for Gibson, Meyer, et al to fill the mid-rotation spots and for Pelfrey to take his "mediocrity at a cheap price" to the backend of the rotaton. But you're right, signing basically unflippable guys like Pelfrey and Correia make no sense for a team looking to rebuild. The original Plan A, now morphing into Plan B, still has the same lack of clarity from this type of signing. I'm still puzzled that a Winter Meeting roster-space-creating trade didn't transpire and that they walked away from JP Arrencibia for only $2M, people got on him for a low BA, but he has legit power and can frame pitches at a very high level (they probably were afraid that his "habits", hitting-wise, would be a bad influence on Pinto). The Rangers got a steal in Arrencibia in their ballpark.
    Last edited by jokin; 12-16-2013 at 04:28 PM.

  4. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I'm still puzzled that a Winter Meeting roster-space-creating trade didn't transpire and that they walked away from JP Arrencibia for only $2M, people got on him for a low BA, but he has legit power and can frame pitches at a very high level (they probably were afraid that his "habits", hitting-wise, would be a bad influence on Pinto). The Rangers got a steal in Arrencibia in their ballpark.
    .194/.227/.365, 59 OPS+: Arencibia in 2013
    .198/.270/.279, 53 OPS+: Butera in 2012

  5. #44
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    .194/.227/.365, 59 OPS+: Arencibia in 2013
    .198/.270/.279, 53 OPS+: Butera in 2012
    There are plenty of examples of former top talents floundering and then rebounding to have solid careers. Chris Davis had a 51 OPS + when he was dealt. They threw a few bucks towards getting a steal. I'm all for more of that from the Twins.

  6. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    There are plenty of examples of former top talents floundering and then rebounding to have solid careers. Chris Davis had a 51 OPS + when he was dealt. They threw a few bucks towards getting a steal. I'm all for more of that from the Twins.
    I agree the thinking has to be that the guys they got have a better then average chance to rebound and be valuable to the team currently and possibly to trade if that makes sense.

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    jokin (12-17-2013)

  8. #46
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    .194/.227/.365, 59 OPS+: Arencibia in 2013
    .198/.270/.279, 53 OPS+: Butera in 2012
    .233/.275/.435 , 90 OPS+: Arencibia in 2012
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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  10. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    .194/.227/.365, 59 OPS+: Arencibia in 2013
    .198/.270/.279, 53 OPS+: Butera in 2012
    I really don't care much about Arencibia, but Butera's "comparable" OPS+ in 2012 was almost entirely due to 9 BB in 122 PA, about double his career MLB rate and even higher than his career AAA rate.

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  12. #48
    No one can say Correia or Pelfrey or anyone is unflipable. Time will tell. It's just thinking of moving IF the time is right. Seemthing the Oakland A's seem to do very well, although their return is not always stellar.

  13. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rosterman View Post
    No one can say Correia or Pelfrey or anyone is unflipable. Time will tell. It's just thinking of moving IF the time is right. Seemthing the Oakland A's seem to do very well, although their return is not always stellar.
    Yeah, but put yourself in the shoes of every other GM. Terry Ryan was the guy who signed these two a year ago- both of their previous teams were happy to move on, and TR was virtually unopposed in bargaining with them- likely for good reason- PTC is a desirable trait in a SP FA to virtually no other GM than Terry Ryan- and unless someone is absolutey desperate, the Twins really can't expect much more than a Pedro Hernandez-type or "C +"- level prospect in return.

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