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Thread: Article: Finding Positives in Pelfrey

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    But disturbingly, his 2013 SIERA doesn't confirm his sub 4.00 FIP going forward. The projecting services are not convinced that he turned it around, either. Steamer and Oliver have his ERA and FIP significantly above his career averages and/or worse than his 2013 numbers, ZIPS goes even further to the downside:
    Those projections aren't looking at his 2013 splits. They may not directly factor in the injury either, except noting his lack of 2012 innings.

    The fact that his 2013 results are a pretty good match for his 2009 and 2011 results (as well as 2006-2007) probably doesn't help either. And it's one reason I am still skeptical of him.

  2. #62
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Wouldn't it make sense to give reps to Gibson, Meyer, and Deduno over Pelfrey? Nolasco, Correa, and Hughes are going to start. I think Meyer has a spot in June, his stuff is filthy and the best in our system. Does it make sense long-term to have Pelfrey instead of Gibson or Deduno?
    It is not an either/or scenario. Somebody (or multiple somebodies) will get hurt. Gibson, Deduno and Meyer will all have the opportunity to pitch if they prove ready. Hopefully, building veteran depth up front prevents the need to call on those guys too soon, or to ever fall back on the Walters & De Vries of the world.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    It is not an either/or scenario. Somebody (or multiple somebodies) will get hurt. Gibson, Deduno and Meyer will all have the opportunity to pitch if they prove ready. Hopefully, building veteran depth up front prevents the need to call on those guys too soon, or to ever fall back on the Walters & De Vries of the world.
    Good point. Which of these two scenarios would yield more wins next year:

    Pelfrey as a starter and Doumit/Parmalee at DH

    Or

    Deduno/Gibson as a starter and Corey Hart as the DH?

    I know we should be able to afford both, but I have to see it to believe it.

  4. #64
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Good point. Which of these two scenarios would yield more wins next year:

    Pelfrey as a starter and Doumit/Parmalee at DH

    Or

    Deduno/Gibson as a starter and Corey Hart as the DH?

    I know we should be able to afford both, but I have to see it to believe it.
    Almost impossible to say. It's just as likely that Gibson throws a 4.00 ERA season as it is he throws a 5.50 ERA season. It's just as likely that Deduno continues his 2013 dominance as it is that his shoulder explodes in March.

    And I think that's the driving force behind the Pelfrey acquisition. It's not that Ryan doesn't realize other holes in the roster exist, it's that pitching has burned the team so badly in the past three seasons and he's not going to let it happen again.

    Inversely, the offense doesn't have any fewer question marks.

    Does 2014 Willingham look like 2012 or 2013 Willingham?

    Will Arcia progress?

    Does 2014 Doumit look like 2012 or 2013 Doumit?

    What the hell, Trevor Plouffe? What's wrong with you?

    Chris Parmelee. Paging Chris Parmelee. Please come to the front desk and notify them whether you're a MLB hitter or not.

    Aaron Hicks. LOL. He can't be worse.

    And those are just the OFers and DH-types (once Sano is up and replaces Plouffe).

    What we see on this roster right now is exactly why I thought Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe should have received every AB possible in 2013. The team should have already committed to a decision on those two players by now but we're facing another year of seeing "if they can hack it".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    What we see on this roster right now is exactly why I thought Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe should have received every AB possible in 2013. The team should have already committed to a decision on those two players by now but we're facing another year of seeing "if they can hack it".
    This. 100% this.
    Lighten up Francis....

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Almost impossible to say. It's just as likely that Gibson throws a 4.00 ERA season as it is he throws a 5.50 ERA season. It's just as likely that Deduno continues his 2013 dominance as it is that his shoulder explodes in March.

    And I think that's the driving force behind the Pelfrey acquisition. It's not that Ryan doesn't realize other holes in the roster exist, it's that pitching has burned the team so badly in the past three seasons and he's not going to let it happen again.

    Inversely, the offense doesn't have any fewer question marks.

    Does 2014 Willingham look like 2012 or 2013 Willingham?

    Will Arcia progress?

    Does 2014 Doumit look like 2012 or 2013 Doumit?

    What the hell, Trevor Plouffe? What's wrong with you?

    Chris Parmelee. Paging Chris Parmelee. Please come to the front desk and notify them whether you're a MLB hitter or not.

    Aaron Hicks. LOL. He can't be worse.

    And those are just the OFers and DH-types (once Sano is up and replaces Plouffe).

    What we see on this roster right now is exactly why I thought Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe should have received every AB possible in 2013. The team should have already committed to a decision on those two players by now but we're facing another year of seeing "if they can hack it".
    I think you never know for sure (like you said), but need to take calculated risks. Deduno had a 3.83 ERA last year, I think that is better than Pelfrey's ceiling at this point. Hart was hurt last year, but would likely stay healthy as a guy who gets up and swings the bat 5-6 times a few times a game. His numbers year by year are on another level than Doumit's, even in the good year Doumit had with us.

  7. #67
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I think you never know for sure (like you said), but need to take calculated risks. Deduno had a 3.83 ERA last year, I think that is better than Pelfrey's ceiling at this point. Hart was hurt last year, but would likely stay healthy as a guy who gets up and swings the bat 5-6 times a few times a game. His numbers year by year are on another level than Doumit's, even in the good year Doumit had with us.
    Aren't there rumblings that Deduno may not be healthy for Spring Training?

    That's not a guy you roll the dice on based on a half season of work, IMO.

    If he comes out of ST firing, find room for him. Don't count on him, though.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Almost impossible to say. It's just as likely that Gibson throws a 4.00 ERA season as it is he throws a 5.50 ERA season. It's just as likely that Deduno continues his 2013 dominance as it is that his shoulder explodes in March.

    And I think that's the driving force behind the Pelfrey acquisition. It's not that Ryan doesn't realize other holes in the roster exist, it's that pitching has burned the team so badly in the past three seasons and he's not going to let it happen again.

    Inversely, the offense doesn't have any fewer question marks.

    Does 2014 Willingham look like 2012 or 2013 Willingham?

    Will Arcia progress?

    Does 2014 Doumit look like 2012 or 2013 Doumit?

    What the hell, Trevor Plouffe? What's wrong with you?

    Chris Parmelee. Paging Chris Parmelee. Please come to the front desk and notify them whether you're a MLB hitter or not.

    Aaron Hicks. LOL. He can't be worse.

    And those are just the OFers and DH-types (once Sano is up and replaces Plouffe).

    What we see on this roster right now is exactly why I thought Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe should have received every AB possible in 2013. The team should have already committed to a decision on those two players by now but we're facing another year of seeing "if they can hack it".
    Easily the most entertaining and spot-on offseason summation of the MN Twins and their current lot. It behooves the GM to either eliminate or answer some of these questions definitively, just to clear the clutter and the climate in Twins Territory.

  9. #69
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Easily the most entertaining and spot-on offseason summation of the MN Twins and their current lot. It behooves the GM to either eliminate or answer some of these questions definitively, just to clear the clutter and the climate in Twins Territory.
    Which is why it's pretty hard for me to get worked up about Hendriks being whooshed off the 40 man roster. It was *slightly* perplexing, especially with some of the other 40 man roster pitchers and Hendriks still having an option but at the end of the day, I just don't give a damn.

    If anything, I could queue up another five names who can follow him right out the door.

    At some point, the team needs to cut bait with question marks and make the team a better one going forward by opening playing time for actual prospects, guys with a future. I can't get too worked up about middling former prospects and outright failures possibly leaving the team and finding marginal success somewhere else.

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  11. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by brock beauchamp View Post
    which is why it's pretty hard for me to get worked up about hendriks being whooshed off the 40 man roster. It was *slightly* perplexing, especially with some of the other 40 man roster pitchers and hendriks still having an option but at the end of the day, i just don't give a damn.

    If anything, i could queue up another five names who can follow him right out the door.

    At some point, the team needs to cut bait with question marks and make the team a better one going forward by opening playing time for actual prospects, guys with a future. I can't get too worked up about middling former prospects and outright failures possibly leaving the team and finding marginal success somewhere else.

    amen
    Lighten up Francis....

  12. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    If anything, I could queue up another five names who can follow him right out the door.

    At some point, the team needs to cut bait with question marks and make the team a better one going forward by opening playing time for actual prospects, guys with a future. I can't get too worked up about middling former prospects and outright failures possibly leaving the team and finding marginal success somewhere else.
    I see your five and raise you five more....

  13. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    What we see on this roster right now is exactly why I thought Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe should have received every AB possible in 2013. The team should have already committed to a decision on those two players by now but we're facing another year of seeing "if they can hack it".
    Brock, Plouffe has been in the organization since 2004 and Parmelee since 2006. I think the decision on both has already been made and we're just waiting for it to play out. I agree, I would prefer they cut them like Hendriks, but I believe they think if they play their cards right, they can get at least something in return. Same is true for Hammer and Doumit. No one is getting terminally blocked and we're not going to ring the bell next season anyway.
    Last edited by howieramone; 12-17-2013 at 03:11 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    Brock, Plouffe has been in the organization since 2004 and Parmelee since 2006. I think the decision on both has already been made and we're just waiting for it to play out. I agree, I would prefer they cut them like Hendriks, but I believe they think if they play their cards right, they can get at least something in return. Same is true for Hammer and Doumit. No one is getting terminally blocked and we're not going to ring the bell next season anyway.
    Agreed. It is refreshing to see the likes of Liam moved out, Walters, Devries, etc. I am done with Parmalee. With Mauer at 1B, he needs to be a DH or corner OF. He has not shown anything that resembles that. I am not ready to give up on Hicks (way too talented and young), Gibson (51 IP is not enough), and Deduno (he has good stuff). I am OK with leaving Plouffe in there until Sano comes up because he hit 24 HR a few years back and what other option do we have at 3B. Worley and Diamond need to rip up AAA early next year or they can go as well.

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    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Good point. Which of these two scenarios would yield more wins next year:

    Pelfrey as a starter and Doumit/Parmalee at DH

    Or

    Deduno/Gibson as a starter and Corey Hart as the DH?

    I know we should be able to afford both, but I have to see it to believe it.
    Moot point. Signed with the Mariners.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  16. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Almost impossible to say. It's just as likely that Gibson throws a 4.00 ERA season as it is he throws a 5.50 ERA season. It's just as likely that Deduno continues his 2013 dominance as it is that his shoulder explodes in March.

    And I think that's the driving force behind the Pelfrey acquisition. It's not that Ryan doesn't realize other holes in the roster exist, it's that pitching has burned the team so badly in the past three seasons and he's not going to let it happen again.

    Inversely, the offense doesn't have any fewer question marks.

    Does 2014 Willingham look like 2012 or 2013 Willingham?

    Will Arcia progress?

    Does 2014 Doumit look like 2012 or 2013 Doumit?

    What the hell, Trevor Plouffe? What's wrong with you?

    Chris Parmelee. Paging Chris Parmelee. Please come to the front desk and notify them whether you're a MLB hitter or not.

    Aaron Hicks. LOL. He can't be worse.

    And those are just the OFers and DH-types (once Sano is up and replaces Plouffe).

    What we see on this roster right now is exactly why I thought Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe should have received every AB possible in 2013. The team should have already committed to a decision on those two players by now but we're facing another year of seeing "if they can hack it".
    I think they have given Plouffe as many at bats as he can handle. Prmelee was just lost at the plate. I wouldn't be surprised to see him DFAd at the end of ST, if not before. Hicks was rushed. But he still has a lot of upside. Arcia will progress. Willingham was hurt a lot last year. He won't likely have another year like 2012. But 2013 is his floor. Look around the diamond and the only position player who exceeded expectations was Dozier. Plan on him regressing and the others experiencing the other kinds of regression to the mean.

    But I get your point. They have a lot of question marks on offense. The difference is, they also have a lot of top offensive talent coming up. Outside of Meyer, we can't say that about their pitching depth.

    Also, FA pitchers are a little less risky than FA position players. Pitchers can be flakes and still fit in. The Mike Lamb's and Tony Bautista's of the world are not just bad on the field. They poison the dugout.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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    About that Plouffe/Parmelee discussion:

    When was the last time that Terry Ryan DFA'd/cut/released a first round draft pick who have reached the majors?

    They will both be given opportunities. I like Plouffe as a corner OF more than I liked Cuddyer when that move was made. And Plouffe will move there as soon as Sano is up. Parmelee's future is a tad trickier, because with the Kubel signing it gets really complicated even if Doumit is toast, assuming that Kubel will share the DH role with Willingham (which should happen.) With Arcia and Mauer both LHBs there is just not much space for Parmelee other than the Kubel spot.
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  18. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    It is not an either/or scenario. Somebody (or multiple somebodies) will get hurt. Gibson, Deduno and Meyer will all have the opportunity to pitch if they prove ready. Hopefully, building veteran depth up front prevents the need to call on those guys too soon, or to ever fall back on the Walters & De Vries of the world.
    The problem is thata lot of the better depth we now have cant be stashed. Stashing Gibson could be counter-productive, especially for a franchise that tends to favor experience over promise. And it could be difficult to stash Deduno, Diamond, and Worley. At the end of the day option 6 or 7 may not be much better than usual and we still aren't auditioning parts of the future.

    Pelfrey might be a steal, but I can't feel good about him until Correia is gone or this supposed depth is retained or moved some how. Otherwise it feels like we're still leaving future question marks in favor of "meh " vets.

  19. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    When was the last time that Terry Ryan DFA'd/cut/released a first round draft pick who have reached the majors?.
    Does Adam Johnson count?

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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Does Adam Johnson count?
    I thought Perkins had to be DFA'd to demote him to AAA to convert him to a RP. Wouldn't that count as "cut"? Also, were Kyle Waldrop and Matt Fox promoted and then released?

    In, short it's not unprecedented that Ryan gives-up on a 1st round choice.

    Would Delmon Young qualify?

  22. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    The problem is thata lot of the better depth we now have cant be stashed. Stashing Gibson could be counter-productive, especially for a franchise that tends to favor experience over promise. And it could be difficult to stash Deduno, Diamond, and Worley. At the end of the day option 6 or 7 may not be much better than usual and we still aren't auditioning parts of the future.

    Pelfrey might be a steal, but I can't feel good about him until Correia is gone or this supposed depth is retained or moved some how. Otherwise it feels like we're still leaving future question marks in favor of "meh " vets.
    Because it now appears that the Twins will not be willing to go one bridge farther to get an SP at the next level above Nolasco (Garza, et al), this "fix" is more closely resembling the bullpen remedy of two years ago- the "solution" being based on quantity, hoping that somehow a rotation shakes itself out and makes itself evident. Like in 2012, it's bound to produce better overall numbers from the rotation, but really, as in 2012, it's still more of a Band-Aid approach- I've predicted 70-74 wins after Nolasco/Hughes- pending further improvements, Pelfrey may (or may not) move that number to 76-

    My immediate thought on the signing of Pelfrey was that they must have a trading partner in mind for Correia in a package with some of the other extra baggage, to clear the decks for another signing and for the rookies to take their rightful place at some point in 2014. I hope that thought is still operative in TR's mind.

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