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Thread: Four down, one to go: Who will be the Twins 5th starter?

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by zwiefz View Post
    First time post so be gentle
    So does anyone see one of the rotation candidates being part of a trade yet this offseason? Out of Correia(consistent), Deduno(intriguing), Diamond(lefty), and Worley(young) do you think could get the most in return?
    Correia and Deduno are probably our best shots to get something decent in a trade, but even then I'm not sure how good the return would be. If it's a mid-season trade, we're probably looking at a deal with a contender, so that's likely a 10-25 ranked organizational prospect in a not so good system. Dealing either one of them before the season would open up a few more potential partners, so that's what I'm hoping for. In terms of current Twins prospects that I think might be good comps for what's achievable, I'm thinking Mason Melotakis, Miguel Sulbaran, Logan Darnell, Niko Goodrum, or maybe Danny Santana at a stretch.

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    That leaves Deduno/Diamond and Worley. I think Worley will perform well enough to win the fifth spot in the rotation. The other will take the sixth rotation spot when someone goes down.
    Here is the issue I got with this logic: I kinda agree that from those 3 Worley is more likely to be on the 25 man roster (but I think that he will fight with Swarzak for that number 5 spot and the loser will be the swing man).

    Where do you stash the other 2? Deduno you stash on the DL till June/July. Diamond will not go through waivers... It will not be a great loss by any means (you got Kris Johnson who is at least comparable if not better, and Logan Darnell, and Pat Dean -not on the 40-man, in AAA if need.)

    Where it might get really interesting (and I hope it does) is if Meyer and/or Gibson have a phenomenal spring training...
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  3. #23
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Here is the issue I got with this logic: I kinda agree that from those 3 Worley is more likely to be on the 25 man roster (but I think that he will fight with Swarzak for that number 5 spot and the loser will be the swing man).

    Where do you stash the other 2? Deduno you stash on the DL till June/July. Diamond will not go through waivers... It will not be a great loss by any means (you got Kris Johnson who is at least comparable if not better, and Logan Darnell, and Pat Dean -not on the 40-man, in AAA if need.)

    Where it might get really interesting (and I hope it does) is if Meyer and/or Gibson have a phenomenal spring training...
    I think the Twins end Spring Training by washing their hands of Diamond and putting him on waivers. Just a gut feeling I have.

    I don't see Swarzak getting another shot at starting with this roster. Too many guys in front of him, too much success in the bulllpen.

    But these are just gut feelings. There are at least a dozen ways this could play out by the end of March.

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  5. #24
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Having DeDuno, Gibson, Albers, Diamond, Worley, Swarzak being discussed as the #5 pitcher, instead of being discussed as the #1,#2,#3 and #4 pitchers is a nice problem to suddenly have.

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  7. #25
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    Well, I actually tink Gibson could be the third best pitcher on the roster, maybe Worley. We are discussing who will be the 5th known starter, not 5th best starter, right?
    Lighten up Francis....

  8. #26
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    It is a lot more rewarding to think that someone might have to be dropped despite pitching well than to think about how to scrape together enough pitching to make it through the season. It could still go to h*ll in a handbasket but at least I feel like the Twins have tried to put together a rotation worthy of the term "major league pitching staff".

    I'll go with:

    Nolasco
    Hughes
    Pelfrey
    Correia
    Worley (mostly because I feel like we never got to appreciate his "Vanimal" side)

  9. #27
    Senior Member Triple-A raindog's Avatar
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    I'm really hoping the Twins don't screw around with stretching out Duensing and Swarzak. I like the chance that one of Worley, Deduno, Diamond, Albers, or Gibson performs well. Why add two other guys to the mix when we've already seen they can't succeed as starters? Just be happy that they've found nice niches in the bullpen.

  10. #28
    I think JB_Iowa's list of Nolasco/Hughes/Pelfrey/ Correia/Worley is as reasonable a prediction as any. With Gibson, K Johnson, Albers in the minors and Deduno on the DL. Not sure where that leaves Diamond, not sure how much I really care.

  11. #29
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Deduno, hands down. Then Diamond. Then Gibson. Then Worley. Then Albers.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  12. #30
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    Most would bet on Correia in the opening day roster, whether they want him there or not. Based onsmall sample size, the Twins do not have much of a history of trading free agents mid-contract.

    I would bet they put Deduno on the 60-day DL. I think he would have to make the 25-manroster first, which means they would have to option someone first.

    Let Worley and Diamond battle it out in spring training. Hopefully they both shine and JR can flip onefor a building block. They are both somewhat fringie and coming off a bad year after elbow surgery. The thing is there is no better place to hidethem. Swarzak appears to be a better long reliever and most do not want him starting. I don’t think Diamond does not have the splits suitable for a LHP reliever. And wishcasting here, I hope the Twins go to a 6-man bullpen so they can have a 5-man bench with only 1 and a fraction catchers on it.

    If the Twins do go with a 7-man bullpen, do they need two long relievers? I don’t think so. I would rather get Tonkin’s feet wet. The Twins will probably option Tonkin and Pressly, then keep the Diamond/Worley runner up in the 7-man pen (unless the runner-up shines or flops in spring training).

    Of course, both Diamond and Worley can flop in spring training.

    I’m guessing Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Correia, and Worley.

    Gibson, Myers, May, Albers, and Johnson are ticketed for Rochester.

  13. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lonestar View Post
    I would bet they put Deduno on the 60-day DL. I think he would have to make the 25-manroster first, which means they would have to option someone first.
    Nope. Toward's the end of ST they can just put him on the DL. Happens every year.

  14. #32
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    for those that think Worley and Diamond are the same player.....go to Fangraphs, do compare, and take into account Worley was hurt last year and get back to me. They were close in 2012, but there is NO comparison in 2011. And they both stunk it up last year. Worley has some stuff, Diamond is a long reliever, imo.
    Lighten up Francis....

  15. #33
    I know it's very unlikely, but how about a 6th man rotation for the 2014 season? Start two of the three ( Deduno, Diamond, or Worley). And put the other one in the bullpen as the long relief or AAA?

  16. #34
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heimer View Post
    I know it's very unlikely, but how about a 6th man rotation for the 2014 season? Start two of the three ( Deduno, Diamond, or Worley). And put the other one in the bullpen as the long relief or AAA?
    Six man rotations are uncommon; six man rotations out of ST are completely overkill. Teams get a lot of days off in April and guys are fresh out of ST. I think conventional wisdom is that you don't want to give your starters as many as six days off between starts.

  17. #35
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    for those that think Worley and Diamond are the same player.....go to Fangraphs, do compare, and take into account Worley was hurt last year and get back to me. They were close in 2012, but there is NO comparison in 2011. And they both stunk it up last year. Worley has some stuff, Diamond is a long reliever, imo.
    They had the same injury. Both had bone chips removed from their elbows. Worley's were removed in September of 2012. Diamond's were removed in December of 2012. They both struggled mightily out of the gate, though Worley more so than Diamond. They both got sent down. Diamond pitched well enough in AAA to make it back. Worley never did.

    Worley's game is about getting the inside strike called on a sinker that starts at the LHB and nicks the inside corner. That's how he got half his strikeouts in the NL. That stuff doesn't work in the AL when you just touch 90. Often last year, the pitches that he had been getting backwards Ks on were either called balls or ended up in the seats. If he wasn't getting his backwards Ks, he was getting pounded. I'm not impressed.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  18. #36
    Owner All-Star Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    for those that think Worley and Diamond are the same player.....go to Fangraphs, do compare, and take into account Worley was hurt last year and get back to me.
    Diamond has been able to get more swing-and-misses over his career: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...yers=6435,5089

    Admittedly Worley's approach -- which you can read about here: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php/2247...innesota-Twins -- involves finesse and, because of the loose bodies in his elbow, he was unable to demonstrate the same command as he did in 2011. It's possible he reemerges.

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  20. #37
    It seems to me that Deduno's health is the wild card. If he's healthy, I think he has a big lead in the competition for the 5th spot. That would probably mean that either Diamond or Worley is in the bullpen and the other is on waivers.
    If Deduno goes to the DL, I'd guess both Worley and Diamond make the roster as 5th starter and long reliever.
    I can't see Swarzak or Duensing being moved into the rotation and I don't think there is any way that Meyer makes the team out of ST. That leaves Gibson to go to AAA and wait for a spot. I appreciate what Albers did last year, but he is a AAA lifer that gets a few starts when a team has injuries.

  21. #38
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    All I know is that one was very good in 2011, one was ok in 2011, regardless of how they got those results. I suppose one could argue (as I believe cmat did very well) that it is not repeatable. Maybe it is that I've seen Diamond, and am not a believer, and I never saw the healthy Worely, so I am giving him the benefit of the doubt. Either way, we'll see over the next couple of years I guess.
    Lighten up Francis....

  22. #39
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    Deduno will be on the 60-day DL and Worley will be named the 5th starter. Ryan isn't going to give-up on a guy who was trumpeted as "part of the pitching solution" just yet. Diamond might be added to the bullpen--because I think the Twins will offer LHP (?!) in trade! Duensing, Albers, Theilbar, (not Kris Johnson!), and Diamond will all be offered in some kind of a package and if it's Duensing that leaves, then Diamond will replace him in the bullpen.

  23. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parker Hageman View Post
    Diamond has been able to get more swing-and-misses over his career: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...yers=6435,5089

    Admittedly Worley's approach -- which you can read about here: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php/2247...innesota-Twins -- involves finesse and, because of the loose bodies in his elbow, he was unable to demonstrate the same command as he did in 2011. It's possible he reemerges.
    Ah, you beat me to it. I was planning on writing a blog tonight on comparing Diamond to Worley.

    To summarize: Diamond gets more swings out of the zone, more ground balls, fewer line drives, more swings and misses and walks fewer batters.

    I have also seen a lot of mention of Worley's injury. Diamond had the same surgery to remove bone chips as Worley did and he had his over three months later. Yet, Worley gets the benefit of the doubt and Diamond doesn't.

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