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Thread: Not Hearing Much About Worley

  1. #121
    Head Moderator MVP glunn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    There is actually a lot of great points made on both sides of this discussion. As I see it, the two camps are basically these:

    A) Correia turned out to be a better signing than anyone expected. He was generally solid and dependable. Again, more-so than anyone expected. How much worse would this team have been without him? His overall numbers would have been better with greater support. We want our team to improve. Having him slide further down the pecking order in the rotation will only make us deeper, better, and with a better chance to be competitive each game.

    B) Correia has never been anything special, just solid and largely dependable. He has no upside at this point. With the talent we do have, and the young talent on its way, some of who are ready or very close, why stick with a guy who lacks upside and won't even be with us a year from now?

    And really, the problem is, both sides are correct.

    TR has put together a potential staff that lacks a #1 starter to be sure, but has the best overall depth of talent and potential the team has had in several seasons. Nolasco and Hughes in particular, Pelfrey has had some success, does provide innings, and should be better this season, rebounding/rehabbing not only his arm n general, but his endurance and the mental part of belief in his arm. (One could hope for a suggest the same of Gibson and others as well) And there is nothing wrong with a stable innings eater like Correia adding to the depth of a chance to win with a solid performance day in and day out. Haven't we all seen enough of 5 & 6 run deficit games after 3 innings?

    But it's also true that Correia, signed through only this season, older than any other SP on the team, and without upside, is NOT a part of the future. Now it's true that winning is good, and a team "learning to win" and expecting to is also a good thing. But where does "solid chance to win today" meet the place of winning tomorrow?

    As I have stated before in regard to Deduno somewhat, but mostly Diamond and Worley, if you've done it before, you just might be ale to show that you can do it again. I know their injuries weren't of a major nature, but there was injury and some surgery as well. Not only do you have to get healthy, but you have to get your work in to build your arm, but to also get your "feel" back for pitches as well as your overall confidence. Does this excuse Diamond and Worley from just awful years? No. Do they have a long-standing record of quality production? Again no. But all of that does provide some small measure of possibility and opportunity that simply must be allowed.

    Unfortunately, when ST begins, I'm afraid Deduno may still be rehabbing and strengthening, etc. I have doubts he's going to be a 100% right off the bat. I think TR is hedging his bets. That would leave 3, not 4 fighting for the final spot in the rotation. There s no doubt and no debate that Gibson is the greater talent here. I hope he's ready, hope he kicks butt and takes names from day one. But one year of AAA, inconsistent, then consistent, then a MLB promotion where he struggles is almost to be expected for most young pitchers, much less one coming back from TJ surgery. I want him in the rotation, e needs to be in the rotation. But as I've said before, a few starts in AAA to stretch out and pitch every day to begin the season isn't a bad thing, or an inditement of his talent or potential.

    And how many times does anyone come through ST with every SP 100%, no blisters, no muscle pulls, etc. If Diamond and/or Worley can really find themselves again, I believe the Twins will make room for them, cheaper, younger, more upside, and surely someone could use a veteran like Correia.

    You don't keep a 1 year, mediocre innings eater over a younger player with some potential. It you also don't keep a younger player just because he's younger if he falls on his face. I truly believe the Correia situation will play itself out in ST.

    Ideally, he would be traded for something because two of Deduno, Gibson, Worley and Diamond will prove him expendable.
    Your post is a good example of the level of intelligent, respectful discussion that we want to have at TD. You have made your arguments without attacking other posters, and you have focused on substance and have refrained from preaching. Very nice work.

  2. #122
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    Ideally, he would be traded for something because two of Deduno, Gibson, Worley and Diamond will prove him expendable.
    Good post Doc, my concern remains that A) I'm not sure the Twins will ever really open him up to that kind of competition and that B) ST is really hard to prove much of anything for anyone.

    But what you said is spot on :

    But where does "solid chance to win today" meet the place of winning tomorrow?
    I just feel we're a 72 win team, so in my mind, we're not at the point where you give up upside for tomorrow for solid chances today. We'd have to do more for the offense before I make that trade.

  3. #123
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    As I have stated before in regard to Deduno somewhat, but mostly Diamond and Worley, if you've done it before, you just might be ale to show that you can do it again. I know their injuries weren't of a major nature, but there was injury and some surgery as well. Not only do you have to get healthy, but you have to get your work in to build your arm, but to also get your "feel" back for pitches as well as your overall confidence. Does this excuse Diamond and Worley from just awful years? No. Do they have a long-standing record of quality production? Again no. But all of that does provide some small measure of possibility and opportunity that simply must be allowed.
    My problem with Diamond and Worley is their success was relatively brief and it was as good as they get. There is no upside in these two, only regression. So the argument to play for the future this year doesn't hold for them. I don't see it as much different than using the more dependable, predictable Correia. They won't be around after this year regardless of what the Twins do. So, all things considered, I'd rather have Correia.

    Deduno still has upside despite his age because he's just figuring out how to control his fastball. Last year, he showed how good he can be when healthy. But he will likely need some time to get his shoulder back in shape. In the mean time, it's nice to have Correia eating innings. When Deduno is healthy, the Twins will have a decision to make. I hope they choose Deduno. They might not be until around the time teams come looking for dependable starters to eat innings, which is exactly when I would trade Correia.

    Then there's Gibson, who will likely win the fifth starting spot out of spring training, if they go by quality alone. If they take options into account, they might give another shot to Diamond or (gulp) Worley. But Gibson will get enough innings this year to be ready for a full load next year. Still, Corriea is slotted to be the fourth starter, leaving the fifth spot for Diamond, Worley or Gibson. If it's primarily about giving Gibson chances for the future, you would say let him win the fifth spot out of Spring Training and say bye bye to the other two. It's not about Correia at that point.

    You can argue that keeping Gibson in AAA for a couple of months is actually good for the long-term strategy, because it delays his arbitration and lengthens team control. Now, the Twins don't play it that way. They give jobs to the guys who pitch the best in Spring Training. But if that is the way it plays out, it's good for the short term and the long term.

    So, you see, the logic that Correia is somehow blocking the future is faulty. When that drops away, all you have is dependability on one side of the argument and irrational hatred on the other.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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  5. #124
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    There is nothing irrational about the position. You are welcome to disagree with it, philosophical disagreements are perfectly appropriate. The idea that what was argued was "without reason" is a distortion and completely unfair.

    As for the logic there are a number of problems:

    Worley and Diamond already regressed. Last year was terrible, what is more likely is they return to the mean. The mean for these three are as follows: 1.3, 1.1, and .7. Here's career ERA+ 89, 92, and 98.

    I'll give you a hint - neither Diamond nor Worley are the lowest WAR nor the lowest ERA+. Some other gentleman is.

    The same reasons you want to pick Deduno over Correia are why I want to pick Worley and Diamond. We just disagree about that, but it's not illogical or irrational. It's based on youth, upside, and potential to be part of the future. So you seem to use this same argument, you just have a philosophical disagreement about whom to apply it to.

    And, lastly, I think I'm done with the "Let's leave Gibson in AAA for arbitration reasons" last year. Another round of that sounds about as appealing as watching a Honey-boo-boo marathon.

    So, again, Doc restated my argument very well. There are rational reasons to be on both sides of it, but I just feel strongly we're a 70ish win team who shouldn't be worrying about 34 year olds with no future on the team. I'd rather have someone be awful and know they're awful.

  6. #125
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    So, again, Doc restated my argument very well. There are rational reasons to be on both sides of it, but I just feel strongly we're a 70ish win team who shouldn't be worrying about 34 year olds with no future on the team. I'd rather have someone be awful and know they're awful.
    My rebuttal is that if the Twins are on a path to 70 wins in May, then move Correia and let the younger guys play. I don't agree with starting a season with that mentality, though... Unless there is ZERO hope of winning going into the season (which I would argue was the case in 2013).

    It's not that hard to make room for these players. Move one of Duensing, Burton, Swarzak, or Fien and slot in Worley or Diamond. The other guy takes the fifth rotation spot. Deduno starts the season on the DL. Gibson starts in the minors.

    Presto, you've retained all the optionless players while keeping the rotation somewhat solid going into the season.

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  8. #126
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    My rebuttal is that if the Twins are on a path to 70 wins in May
    Unfortunately the relevant decision happens in March not May. Though I agree with your idea of dealing bullpen. I have a lot of confidence in Ryan assembling a bullpen and several guys you noted (Fien especially) are at peak value right now.

  9. #127
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Unfortunately the relevant decision happens in March not May. Though I agree with your idea of dealing bullpen. I have a lot of confidence in Ryan assembling a bullpen and several guys you noted (Fien especially) are at peak value right now.
    But my later point illustrates how the decision doesn't need to be made in March.

    Dealing bullpen arms on this team makes sense no matter how you look at the situation. They have an abundance of capable arms already. They have too many marginal starters, at least one of which should be able to hack it in a swing role.

    And more arms are on the way. The roster is only going to get more crowded so they may as well deal one of them now while their trade value can bring back something worthwhile, even if it's just a low minors arm (which, unless you're dealing Perkins, is pretty much the ceiling of a bullpen arm return).

  10. #128
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Totally agree Brock. Right now the roster is crunched, especially on the 4/5 starter front. By my count they have 9 guys that would slot as long relievers or 4/5 starters. That just isn't sustainable on the 40 man for very long.

    It'd help if Diamond could profile as a bullpen lefty too, but I can't see that being a good transition for him. Worley maybe, but if they do get slid in to start later are we just pulling another Slowey and setting them up to fail. That concern is there for me as well.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    It's not that hard to make room for these players. Move one of Duensing, Burton, Swarzak, or Fien and slot in Worley or Diamond. The other guy takes the fifth rotation spot. Deduno starts the season on the DL. Gibson starts in the minors..
    You don't even have to move anyone: Roenicke is already gone, Pressly, Thielbar, Fien, Tonkin all have options...
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  12. #130
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    I'll give you a hint - neither Diamond nor Worley are the lowest WAR nor the lowest ERA+. Some other gentleman is.
    According to B-Ref, here are there 2013 numbers.

    Worley ERA+ 56
    Worley WAR -1.2

    Diamond ERA+ 75
    Diamond WAR -1.0

    Correia ERA+ 97
    Correia WAR 1.6

    Pelfrey ERA + 78
    Pelfrey WAR -0.3
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  13. #131
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    According to B-Ref, here are there 2013 numbers.
    I used career numbers. The ones that don't fall victim to using small sample sizes or being caught up in over-emphasizing one season at the expense of taking in a more full view of the data. Both mistakes are prevalent in your analysis.

  14. #132
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    According to B-Ref, here are there 2013 numbers.

    Worley ERA+ 56
    Worley WAR -1.2

    Diamond ERA+ 75
    Diamond WAR -1.0

    Correia ERA+ 97
    Correia WAR 1.6

    Pelfrey ERA + 78
    Pelfrey WAR -0.3
    Cannot look at those in a vaccum, esp. cumulative stats like WAR. Worley pitched a grand total of 48.7 innings. This is less than Andrew Albers and about as many as Liam Hendriks.

    In those less than 49 innings, he had a .401 BABIP, a 65.2% LOB rate, and a 15.5% HR/FB rate. Triple Whammy. Broken mirror, crossed by a black cat while walking under a ladder.
    Last edited by Thrylos; 12-27-2013 at 03:26 PM.
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  15. #133
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Cannot look at those in a vaccum, esp. cumulative stats like WAR. Worley pitched a grand total of 48.7 innings. This is less than Andrew Albers and about as many as Liam Hendriks.

    In those less than 49 innings, he had a .401 BABIP, a 65.2% LOB rate, and a 15.5% HR/FB rate. Triple Whammy. Broken mirror, crossed by a black cat while walking under a ladder.
    And pitching horribly. It something of a slanted analysis that you're willing to discount a -1.2 WAR in 49 innings because of small sample sizes. He was horrible. Can he improve? Sure. In fact, he's likely to improve because you can't get much worse. He had such a high BABIP because he gave up one liner after another. I feared for the well being of his fielders. But he is not likely to improve enough to be better than the other candidates.

    I give Diamond a higher chance. But neither has enough stuff for much margin of error.

    We'll see how it plays out. I just think the odds are, Correia will have a better season than the other two. And none of them are likely to be around in 2015 when it matters.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  16. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Totally agree Brock. Right now the roster is crunched, especially on the 4/5 starter front. By my count they have 9 guys that would slot as long relievers or 4/5 starters. That just isn't sustainable on the 40 man for very long.

    It'd help if Diamond could profile as a bullpen lefty too, but I can't see that being a good transition for him. Worley maybe, but if they do get slid in to start later are we just pulling another Slowey and setting them up to fail. That concern is there for me as well.
    My point exactly! There is no need to draft and develop for 4/5 starters to start, and the loss thereof (especially when their ceiling is as a 4/5 starter) to waive them. The signed free-agent pitchers have demonstrated reliability at the level. Playing them at least provides a somewhat competitive team whereas playing the minor leaguers whose ceiling is as a 4/5 makes no sense. We've seen them, and they're not good enough. We must wait until those at the low levels have had time to progress. I for one would much rather watch an average or so major league quality pitcher rather than someone who might get to the level of a 4/5 pitcher.

  17. #135
    People are making this far more complicated than it needs to be.

    1. Unless Gibson has an amazing spring, he should start the season in AAA.
    2. Trade Correia for the right offer. If the right offer doesn't come until July, so be it.
    3. Release Diamond.
    4. Unless Deduno's shoulder is ruined, he deserves the last spot in the rotation.
    5. The fact that Worley is out of options should have no bearing on him making the team. If he's not one of the best 12, try sending him down, and if he's claimed, so be it.

    In a matter of minutes I just solved the problem.

  18. #136
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Joe A. Preusser's Avatar
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    I am of the opinion that winning breeds a culture of winning. Therefore, with the impending arrival of several strong players in the next 2-3 years, we should be trying to win now, not in 2-3 years. Sitting on our couches in December and saying "Ok, we look like a 72 win team, so let's jettison Correia and plug in Gibson and play for the future..." line of thinking is off base IMO. I want those kids arriving greeted by a professional team that places a premium on winning, not thinking about the future. Correia has done everything he was asked to and more for this ball club. He probably gives us a better chance to win than Gibson would, particularly during his historically good first several months of the season.

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  20. #137
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe A. Preusser View Post
    I am of the opinion that winning breeds a culture of winning. Therefore, with the impending arrival of several strong players in the next 2-3 years, we should be trying to win now, not in 2-3 years. Sitting on our couches in December and saying "Ok, we look like a 72 win team, so let's jettison Correia and plug in Gibson and play for the future..." line of thinking is off base IMO. I want those kids arriving greeted by a professional team that places a premium on winning, not thinking about the future. Correia has done everything he was asked to and more for this ball club. He probably gives us a better chance to win than Gibson would, particularly during his historically good first several months of the season.
    Excellent excellent take. The way Gibson pitched last year he SHOULD start 2014 in AAA, regardless how good he is this spring. If healthy, Deduno has wicked stuff and should be the 5th starter. As far as Correia goes, I keep him until July and trade him ONLY if they get an offer they cant refuse. Trading Correia and filling the 4-5 spots with retreads who are out of options would be stupidity.

  21. #138
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe A. Preusser View Post
    I am of the opinion that winning breeds a culture of winning. Therefore, with the impending arrival of several strong players in the next 2-3 years, we should be trying to win now, not in 2-3 years. Sitting on our couches in December and saying "Ok, we look like a 72 win team, so let's jettison Correia and plug in Gibson and play for the future..." line of thinking is off base IMO. I want those kids arriving greeted by a professional team that places a premium on winning, not thinking about the future. Correia has done everything he was asked to and more for this ball club. He probably gives us a better chance to win than Gibson would, particularly during his historically good first several months of the season.
    Right along with one of the points I made earlier. There is definitely a knock on Correia for lack of upside and overall stuff. And once again, if a younger player has upside and is pitching well, you want that upside player to build your team with. Conversely though, you want to breed, or re-breed as it were, a culture of winning and competitiveness for the fans, the turnstiles and team finances, and for the young guys coming up to feel a part of winning and competitive spirit.

    I think it's wonderful that our debate for the anticipation of the coming season is over a #4 starter. Marvelous! The Correia argument is a bit of a conundrum, but a beautiful one. Lol. I believe, again, that TR has very purposely brought about this "depth" to provide options. Not only out of ST, but a month or two in to the season when someone might be healthy, or just ready. Even mediocre SP has some sort of trade value.

    While I do find fault with some things related to Gardenhire, such as stubbornness with certain players in the past, I am a fan. It is his job to help the team win. To that end, I do worry somewhat about him stubbornly holding on to a veteran in favor of a younger, higher potential prospect. But after the past three seasons, the moves TR has made this off season, the young kids on the rise, I believe there is a light to be seen up ahead. Perhaps I am mistaken, but I feel that he and TR are on the same page. I don't believe moving someone like Correia will be a problem. Simply though, someone has to show that they are ready to take that spot in the rotation.

  22. #139
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    I think part of the issue is the claim that these guys are higher potential.

    The Diamond trade was hated by fans since he was a low upside starter w/o great stuff. He had one nice season but even in that season he had one of the lowest K rates in the majors.

    Worley K'd more hitters but did so w/o great stuff and with an abysmal swstr%.

    Deduno has interesting stuff but somehow still doesn't rack up many K's and BB's too many. And there is considerable question whether or not he's even ready in April (or June).

    The repeating point that has been made in this thread is that the Twins MIGHT have to DFA someone with upside and potential. None of these guys have upside past being a #4 starter and they certainly shouldn't be gifted a rotation spot because of that potential. As I see it Diamond and Worley can battle it out for the #5 spot. If the other is worth keeping then they will find a way to make it happen.

  23. #140
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    So, again, Doc restated my argument very well. There are rational reasons to be on both sides of it, but I just feel strongly we're a 70ish win team who shouldn't be worrying about 34 year olds with no future on the team. I'd rather have someone be awful and know they're awful.[/QUOTE]

    In my little corner of "fantasy" Twins baseball, two things happen. One is that Hicks makes the club in CF. (more on that in a moment) And the other is that Correia is traded before the season starts due to Gibson let's say, or before the all star break. Not knocking his efforts last season, or what he might contribute to help our cause this season. I just WANT someone younger with more upside (use Gibson again here) to take/earn his place for the long term health of the club. Of course, I want the Twins to win, be competitive, and don't want someone plugged in to a spot to be aweful just for opportunity sake.

    I am going to argue a bit about the Twins being a 70ish win team. Certainly, after three just awful and disappointing seasons there is doubt. But I truly feel with better health, a rotation that HAS to be better at this point despite the Correia debate, a solid pen, we could potentially see a team that might win 80, and compete for a .500 record.

    I feel the Mauer move to be an excellent one. (Let's move on from his value as a C, that ship has sailed) Without even improving upon his usual number peripherals, just having him in the lineup most days improves the team's offensive potential. (And yes, could see some of his numbers improve) And I feel he'll be an excellent defensive 1B. A healthy, more productive Willingham hitting his normal stat line, hopefully mostly at DH, the very talented and exciting Arcia, Dozier, who might see power regress but might see Avg. and OB progress, etc, should improve the offense. As I stated once before, it's not like it could be worse!

    And as I have also stated before, I believe Hicks is a key component for this team. He was rushed. He was a disappointment. All true. But then again, he WAS rushed. He did show flashes. He actually showed some improvement before injury. He's still ver young and talented and a great defensive CF. Recent reports say he was Rochester's best player at the close of the season. Just think of him playing CF, hitting 8th, providing great defense, hitting anywhere from .230-.250 with SB's, speed on the base paths, triple potential, 30 2B's, and double digit HR potential (maybe 20). This allows Willingham to primarily DH, and Pressly and ? to play a corner OF position and provide at least limited lead-off ability. This helps improve the offense, as well as the defense, especially with a few fly ball pitchers on our staff.

    Nolasco, Hughes pitching more to his potential and more like his road numbers, an improved Pelfrey, etc, etc, plus a solid pen not overworked. Color me an optimist, but I see a better team than 70 wins.

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