01-15-2014, 11:12 AM #181
01-15-2014, 11:15 AM #182
Again, I'm using standard player models for Pedro Florimon, which is all we can use for players who haven't shown any great strides improving their play on the baseball field whereas you are hoping that Florimon gets better without any real evidence to suggest that he will do so. Which analysis sounds more likely to be accurate?
01-15-2014, 11:48 AM #183
2nd, Gagne, the hypothesis, similar AVG/OBP/SLG, position and team. Can you find someone more similar?
I don't seem to be getting what questions you are stating.
For the subjective:
It's too early to give up on Florimon. He can get better. And I believe he will be better than he was last year.
I also said 'subjective' in my post - what part of subjective are you not getting?
To be frank, you are in the extreme minority in this viewpoint. The extreme minority.
I'm actually in the major that believes Major league statistics correlate better than MiLB to future performance of major league peformance. I'm in the extreme majority. Fangraphs isn't using MiLB data for Mike Trout's projections for the 2014 season or anyone else with significant MLB experience. Neither is Baseball Prospectus or the Baseball Analyst. Zips, CAIRO, Bill James, etc. They all use MLB stats (if available) to project MLB stats, that's almost exclusively too. Again, if MLB data is available.
Last edited by twinsfan34; 01-15-2014 at 11:54 AM.
01-15-2014, 12:11 PM #184
AVG/OBP/SLG are flawed stats across eras. A much safer, and more accurate, metric is something like OPS+. For example, Greg Gagne got to play in the SuperBall-era Metrodome. Is he a valuable player without that turf? Maybe, maybe not. In 1986 (the only year I looked), he OPSed about .080 higher at home than on the road.
What we do know is that Pedro Florimon doesn't get to play in a giant pinball machine 81 times a year and that he hasn't hit anywhere at any level.
I keep asking the question but what exactly makes you think that Florimon will improve?
Also, both Steamer and Oliver project the 2014 version of Pedro Florimon to be worth more negative offensive runs than the 2013 version. Both also predict a decrease in overall WAR. AVG, OBP, and SLG are not consistent league-wide from year to year. An uptick in Florimon's performance could be more than offset by a larger uptick in league performance as a whole, making 2014 Florimon a net loss over the 2013 version.
01-15-2014, 12:16 PM #185
But please SHOW me the model, versus telling me what the model says. I was a research Scientist for 5 years in instrumental chemistry, I then taught AP Calculus (show me your proof!), and now I'm in analytics. I care very little for conclusions without statistical models to verify. It's no offense meant, but don't 'tell' me, 'show' me and be prepared for 30 "why" questions. And 'have you considered...' comments.
2. Also, what are you defining as 'success'... for Florimon, if you are at all defining success for him.
3. How accurate have these models you've been using correct? Do you go back to the Zips, CAIRO, Bill James, etc or whatever you're using to see if they're successful? To what degree? Maybe run a confidence interval on them for standard error? Some run higher on the projections, some run lower. Is your projection system (or the one you use), historically high or low? I know it's not exact - or you'd be making money left and right and wouldn't be here. Forget Nate Silver...but which is it? Have you taken account for this into the projections? I guess the one you may be referencing is an age one...is it changing at all year to year? Humans are maturing at different ages...body sizes are different, e.g. WW2 average American male at age 18 was 5'7'' 145 lbs. Now it's close to 5'10'' and 178 lbs.
It's fine to live and die on something, but say what it says, but don't argue for it as Bible truth without acknowledging all projection systems are flawed at best.
The projections say...." "
If you have a confidence of 95% (2 standard deviations) on that projection, well then it's something you got a 19/20 shot of happening. I'll take it, even with that 1 occurrence landing outside the expected value.
One guy was getting attacked by personal agendas in 2 different forums. And he wasn't wrong in either case. A lot of this is grey, not black and white.
Will you put a year's worth of beer consumption on your projection model for Florimon for next year? And I get any instance where he doesn't exactly meet that? what about 2 SD's within that number? Btw, I can drink a keg-ton of beer. I have more alcohol dehydrogenase in my system than mitochondria...and it's not even close.
I like your posts, you're [Brock] one of my favorite contributors. You seem to have a good sense of numbers and baseball.
But there are late bloomers. Michael Cuddyer was 25 before he really became a regular in MLB. He won a batting title at age 34, hitting .331.
Who could have predicted that? Not me. Not in a million years. Which projection system had Cuddyer hitting even .300 in his age 34 season?
He hit .311 on the road btw. In 2006, he hit .302 at home (the Dome) but otherwise, he'd never hit .300 at any home/away split. Pretty crazy. The stars aligned I guess?
Age projections are about 60% correct? That is, about 3 in 5 guys fall in line with those curves. Others are more linear or more exponential.
What do those age projections do to Stephen Drew? For his next 3 years?
What's the WAR/$ ratio of ROI for Drew vs. Florimon?
Last edited by twinsfan34; 01-15-2014 at 12:33 PM.
01-15-2014, 12:29 PM #186
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I don't think this is that complicated. Nobody knows what Florimon will do at the plate this year; no person or model can accurately predict this. Based on his track record, its not likely that he improves greatly with the bat but improvement is possible. This discussion is even possible because he is an elite defender. Seems clear to me the Twins are giving him one more chance to see if he gets better at the plate. If he does, they have a plus player at a position where plus players are hard to find. If he does not improve, someone else will be playing shortstop for the Twins next year, or maybe even this August.
01-15-2014, 12:35 PM #187
01-15-2014, 12:44 PM #188
First, I don't do bets on the internet. Never have, never will.
Second, here is a good article on player aging.
Hitters peak somewhere around age 29, which certain skills such as AVG/SLG peaking at age 28 and others, such as BB, peak in a player's 30s. Anyone in the 26-30 area is at or near their peak in most cases.
A good summary of the article is this:
Good hitters stay around, weak hitters don't. Most players are declining by age 30; all players are declining by age 33. There are difference in rates of decline, but those differences are far less significant for the assessment of future value than are the differing levels of ability (James, 1982, p. 205).
- He has been old-ish at every level of the high minors, not playing a full season at AA or above until age 24.
- He has posted an OPS over .700 once, despite being an older player relative to competition.
- In 601 MLB PAs, he has an OPS of .601. In his last 446 PAs as a 26 year old, he has a .611 OPS.
- In his age 26 MLB season, he showed no progression as a hitter during the season. In fact, he actually regressed as the season went on, posting a first half OPS of .636 and a second half OPS of .576.
- In his last MiLB season (2012), he posted a .652 OPS in Rochester. This is in line with his career .675 MiLB OPS.
- It's not only me. Both Steamer and Oliver project 2014 Florimon to remain neutral to 2013 or actually regress as a player.
Can Florimon improve? Sure, anyone can improve. Cuddyer improved in his 30s (but he's an awful comp, as Cuddyer had a long track record of success at every level he ever played).
But baseball isn't about hopes and wishes, it's about playing the odds. And the odds say that Pedro Florimon will never be an acceptable MLB starter. Nothing (and I mean nothing) in his career has suggested that he is a capable hitter. He hasn't progressed in a meaningful way in two years, despite entering typical prime seasons for a player of his type. Players of his calibre are often out of baseball entirely by their late 20s (see Gardenhire, Ron) because, as the link above illustrates, bad players rarely get a chance to age in MLB. Florimon is hard to comp because it's hard to find a guy of his hitting ability who accumulated more than a few hundred MLB PAs. Hell, even no-hit guys like Adam Everett had Ruthian peaks compared to what we've seen from Florimon.
With that said, I feel like I'm talking in circles. I'm going to bow out of this thread because there is nothing left to say.
01-15-2014, 01:23 PM #189
Here's what I'd put a year's worth of beer consumption on: Drew will outhit Florimon by a good margin over the remainder of their MLB careers, and will approximate the same defensive value.
The rest isn't relevant to winning more baseball games, which seems to me the goal of all this.Every post is not every other post. - a wise man
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01-15-2014, 01:30 PM #190
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"A defensive whiz SS that can hit 230-240 with some pop and steal some bags would be a nice player to have around"
Yes, as a utility infielder. I think Florimon just had his career year offensively - he's never hit 9 HR before at any level. He has a little room for improvement defensively that comes with experience but his tools are not going to improve. His bat is likely to be sub .600 OPS again. He's not a great base stealer though I think a couple of his CS are failed hit-and-runs. He's a good guy to have on a bench but not the guy I want as a starter.
01-15-2014, 01:41 PM #191
01-15-2014, 01:46 PM #192
01-15-2014, 01:58 PM #193
01-15-2014, 04:08 PM #194
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01-15-2014, 04:29 PM #195
01-15-2014, 06:15 PM #196
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To summarize this thread: Florimon supporters think he is very good defensively and can improve offensively. The detractors think he's pretty much what he is. Drew supporters point out his outstanding 2013 season on a championship team and note his good defensive metrics.
I am not a Florimon backer, but I really think Drew will decline significantly and isn't worth the investment. While I don't buy a lot of projections, I don't trust 30+ shortstops and I don't like guys leaving Fenway for a lesser hitter's park.
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01-15-2014, 07:19 PM #197
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I think supporters also noted Drew's outstanding career and debunked the health issues, as his outstanding 2013 season was after coming back from a harrowing injury. Moreover, Drew got stronger as the season progressed, while Florimon got worse.
Drew's OPS+ of 111 confirms that his production numbers would have been good, even out of Fenway, as does his 136 OPS+ against RHP.. If used properly and especially against RHP, he would be a sorely missing bat from what looks to be a very anemic Twins offense in 2014.
While agreeing with you and acknowledging that Drew may very well decline, especially by a 3rd year in a contract (And I'm not sure that 3rd year is even going to be necessary- 2 will probably get it done), Pedro Florimon is also projected to decline. And again, if you use Drew primarily against RHP, his numbers will not decline, but increase.
01-16-2014, 01:04 AM #198
I believe that this type of defensive talent only comes around every so often (it's been a long time since the Twins have had a dominant defensive SS) and SS is one of those positions where you want to have someone who can help pitchers out, especially on a team like the Twins where the team relies on getting a lot of ground ball outs.
If Florimon can can limit his strike out ratio (not an unrealistic goal), he could be "good enough" offensively to go along with his fantastic defense. If you factor in that he's only being paid $500,000/season, he could be of really good value. Obviously if he doesn't show any improvement whatsoever, I'd be more than happy to see the Twins consider their options.
I was content with JJ Hardy playing SS and I'd be just fine if they brought him back or signed someone like him down the road. However, given Florimon's defensive abilities and price tag, I also like giving him another opportunity in 2014.
I also understand the issue that non-supporters take. I understand that the Twins need to improve offensively, and SS is a position they could upgrade offensively in the short term by signing Drew or someone like him. I'm not necessarily against this. I just believe Florimon should get the start in 2014 @ SS unless the Twins want to go "all-in" this off season and sign a few more players (Garza, Drew, and a good DH etc), in which case I could understand and would be supportive.
However, it does not appear that the Twins are being very aggressive on the offensive side of things, so it would not surprise me if they go with Florimon in 2014.
Last edited by Reider; 01-16-2014 at 01:07 AM.
01-16-2014, 08:57 AM #199
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I also would like to see a rangy shortstop next to Sano on the left side of the infield. Reports are that Sano has soft hands and a cannon arm, but he's a big guy, without the lateral movement of other third basemen--and he's still growing. The Twins will need a vacuum at short who can go deep into the hole and make plays on balls that Sano might not get a glove on.
01-16-2014, 09:11 AM #200
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Another way to look at it: even if you are fine with Florimon's defense and giving him another year, do you still think the Twins should make a competitive offer for Drew? If his market truly has thinned out, and we could steal him for less than widely reported (2/24, 3/30, maybe even another 1 year deal?), would you be willing to shelve the Florimon experiment?