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Thread: Pedro Florimon

  1. #101
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Florimon is either a starting shortstop or he doesn't have a major league job. He has no experience at other positions to play a utility role. The Twins can sign Drew and release Florimon.

    I don't see the parallel in trade value with Butera. Butera had options. Teams carry two or three catchers. Butera adds value towards developing pitchers in AAA. I can vision a midsummer trade if a team has a shortstop go down (like Peralta last year) and the Twins have enough confidence in Escobar or Santana to hand them the remainder of the seasons. That is two big ifs.

    I would keep Florimon as the starter and see how he develops. Plus defensive shortstops are not easy to develop. How many have the a Twins developed since Gagne?
    I agree that Florimon has no history of being anything but a shortstop and a guy who plays almost every day. I don't think of him as a potential utility guy. I do think he has some trade potential because he is good defensively at a premium position and isn't historically bad as a hitter.

  2. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by stringer bell View Post
    I agree that Florimon has no history of being anything but a shortstop and a guy who plays almost every day. I don't think of him as a potential utility guy. I do think he has some trade potential because he is good defensively at a premium position and isn't historically bad as a hitter.
    They would need to find a team in need of a starting SS. He is out of options and can't be optioned. Are there any teams where he would be a clear upgrade that would also be willing to trade a prospect? I don't see it.

    I can see a trade in the summer when a team in contention loses a SS to injury.

    I can see a trade of two players out of options be swapped for each other as rosters are being set in March. Perhaps Minnesota can get 4th OF type that would have been otherwised DFA'd.

    The Twins have the most potential for upside by investing another season in him and seeing if he can improve his OBP.

  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by Physics Guy View Post
    I guess this was my view on the whole thing. Drew is the only upgrade in FA and I don't like the contract he is looking for, his injury history nor the draft pick we would have to give up. I was very skeptical that Florimon was that far below his positional average. I truly felt there would probably be easier places, such as corner OF or IF, where we could improve. So I did some digging:

    League Average OPS by Position:
    C - .708 (Pinto had .963 in MLB last year and .882 in AA/AAA)
    1B - .777 (Mauer had .880 last year)
    2B - .709 (Dozier .726, hopefully can stay above .700)
    SS - .682 (Floimon .611 )
    3B - .742 (Plouffe .701, .756 in 2012)
    LF - .724 (Willingham .709, career .830)
    CF - .738 (Hicks .598, Pressley .699)
    RF - .741 (Arcia .734)
    DH - .728 (Parmelee .663)

    SS, CF and DH are the three spots where we are weak. 1B and LF (assuming bounce-back by Willingham) are above average. C and RF could be above average, 2B is fine and 3B is a big question mark until Sano is up. There is reason to hope that CF can be better this year and there is no reason to do anything with Buxton on the way. SS and DH seem to be the areas where the greatest improvement could be made. If Sano is up soon, we could platoon Plouffe and Parmelee (or others?) at DH and maybe be league average. I think there is reason to believe we could be near or above league average at most positions. This clearly depends on some young players continuing to improve.

    Drew is the only upgrade I can see at SS and as I explained earlier, I don't think they should sign him. They could improve their lineup (and defense) by finding a LF who can hit .750 OPS and move Willingham to DH. I'm not sure such a guy exists in FA. After looking at FA, I think the Twins could sign Wilson Betemit. He is a switch-hitter with much stronger numbers against RHP. He would be a natural platoon with Plouffe and would make the bench stronger. He would also give us another LH bat on the bench in case Parmelee can't hack it.

    I also looked up league average OPS by batting order. How would this work for the Twins?
    1st - .716 (Dozier .726 last year)
    2nd - .728 (Mauer .880)
    3rd - .774 (Willingham .709 last year, .830 career)
    4th - .783 (Arcia .734)
    5th - .747 (Betemit .819 career vs RHP, Plouffe .842 career vs LHP)
    6th - .737 (Pinto .963 in SSS last year)
    7th - .706 (Parmelee .663 or other options at DH)
    8th - .681 (Pressley .699 l.y. or Hicks??)
    9th - .633 (Florimon .611 last year)
    I like your analysis. I like your proposed lineup better with Drew and another upgraded bat in it:

    League Average OPS by Position:
    C - .708 (Pinto had .963 in MLB last year and .882 in AA/AAA)
    1B - .777 (Mauer had .880 last year)
    2B - .709 (Dozier .726, hopefully can stay above .700)
    SS - .682 (Steven Drew vs. RHP .876 Florimon vs. LHP .665 )
    3B - .742 (Plouffe .701, .756 in 2012)
    LF - .724 (Willingham .709, career .830)
    CF - .738 (Hicks .598, Pressley .699)
    RF - .741 (Arcia .734)
    DH - .728 (Michael Young .730) or (Mark Reynolds vs LHP .725/Arcia .769 vs. RHP.....or....Parmelee vs RHP .696)


    Proposed batting order:

    1st - .716 (Dozier .726 last year)
    2nd - .728 (Mauer .880)
    3rd - .774 (Willingham .709 last year, .830 career)
    4th - .783 (Arcia .734)
    5th - .747 (Betemit .819 career vs RHP, Plouffe .842 career vs LHP)
    6th - .737 (Pinto .963 in SSS last year)

    7th - .706 (Young @ .730 or other options at DH- ~.720-.740)

    8th - .681 (Drew @ .876/Florimon @ .665 in platoon split)

    9th - .633 (Presley @ .699)

    The bottom of your order suddenly becomes much more formidable, adding to your proposed upgrade and potential bounceback years in the middle part of the order. And Boras has gone with one-year deals in the past. A one-year deal for Drew wouldn't hurt the Twins at all. The pick they lose this year can be regained as a supplemental first-rounder with a QO, or the Twins can trade Drew before the deadline for a decent prospect. And-----Drew platooning gives him a much better chance at staying healthy throughout the entire season.

    And doing both of these deals- Drew, Young/Reynolds would be short-term to fit in the budget this year, and not block anyone down the road.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-04-2014 at 06:55 PM.

  4. #104
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    SS - .682 (Steven Drew vs. RHP .876 Florimon vs. LHP .665---- OR trade for JJ Hardy .739 OPS*)

    * The Orioles are looking to move Hardy and the Twins have some of the pieces the O's are shopping for--SP/LF/Closer (they might even want Florimon back in some kind of package deal). The trade should also net Ryan a top prospect.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-04-2014 at 06:42 PM.

  5. #105
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    Still advocate Willingham as the primary DH. Like Drew at SS, but especially with reported contract demands, prefer Garza, with a trade or packaged trade of Correia and another, and run with Floriman/Escobar at SS. I am less concerned with an offensive upgrade at the number 9 spot in the order than I am at adding Garza to SP and overall defense and offense, (Hicks, Presley and Arcia hopefully).

    Now, if the Orioles want to trade Hardy and we can pull off a trade 2 or 3 team trade then OK. Otherwise, make the move for Garza with a front-loaded offer, and stick with Floriman/Escobar at SS.

  6. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by stringer bell View Post
    Mauch had Tony Oliva, who could still hit, but couldn't run at all because of a terrible knee injury, and would have Tony lead off the games on the road as the second baseman. If Tony got on, the second baseman (Bobby Randall?) would pinch-run. If not, the second baseman would replace Tony in the field.
    Thank you, I do remember Mauch doing that after you gave the particulars. It would be interesting to see who came up with the idea, Mauch, Weaver or more probably some minor league guy we never heard of.

    Mauch had a reputation as a great in game manager during his time. His reputation was similar to Weaver but he never managed any World Series winners and the meltdown by the Phillie team he managed kind of hurt him. Mostly he didn't have the talent that Weaver did.

  7. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    Like Drew at SS, but especially with reported contract demands, prefer Garza
    What reported contract demands? I haven't heard of any from Drew's camp. If anything Drew's contract demands are likely dwindling. Very few teams have a need at SS, and Drew is saddled with draft pick compensation.

    On the other hand, there's a large market for starting pitching and Garza doesn't have a draft pick attached to him. It's likely Garza will receive close to double what Drew will at this point. Perhaps more than double.

  8. #108
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    Last I heard/read, please someone correct me if wrong, Boston was holding out to UP or match, but I heard reports of 10m per and 3 years. Which means at least 8M per if the market slides. Am I wrong? I swear I saw such demands.

  9. #109
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    I do know he rejected a $14+M qualifying offer to seek a longer and bigger? contract. Again, anyone who can support what I have seen/read previously?

  10. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    Last I heard/read, please someone correct me if wrong, Boston was holding out to UP or match, but I heard reports of 10m per and 3 years. Which means at least 8M per if the market slides. Am I wrong? I swear I saw such demands.
    I haven't heard of Boston holding out to UP or match but the dollar figures are close to what I've heard. I think 3 years, $30M is about the range he's looking for at this point and teams are holding at two years. I personally feel that's more than fair, especially considering Peralta got 4 years, $53M and is a year older.

  11. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    Still advocate Willingham as the primary DH. Like Drew at SS, but especially with reported contract demands, prefer Garza, with a trade or packaged trade of Correia and another, and run with Floriman/Escobar at SS. I am less concerned with an offensive upgrade at the number 9 spot in the order than I am at adding Garza to SP and overall defense and offense, (Hicks, Presley and Arcia hopefully).

    Now, if the Orioles want to trade Hardy and we can pull off a trade 2 or 3 team trade then OK. Otherwise, make the move for Garza with a front-loaded offer, and stick with Floriman/Escobar at SS.


    Regarding the Hammer, the Twins likely want him playing in the field to maximize his mid-season trading value- so DH full-time to start out the season is probably a dead letter. We shouldn't let Ryan so easily off the hook here. The Twins could sign all three- Garza, Drew and one of Betemit/Reynolds/Young (maybe even 2 of these 3)-........By trading Correia and 2 of the high-priced relievers you save around $11M, they would still have money left over from their $25M bonus media money. The over-all payroll would come in right around where it was in 2012- this is doable, the Twins just need to be willing to step up to the plate.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-04-2014 at 11:49 PM.

  12. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Regarding the Hammer, the Twins likely want him playing in the field to maximize his mid-season trading value- so DH full-time to start out the season is probably a dead letter. We shouldn't let Ryan so easily off the hook here. The Twins could sign all three- Garza, Drew and one of Betemit/Reynolds/Young (maybe even 2 of these 3)-........By trading Correia and 2 of the high-priced relievers you save around $11M, they would still have money left over from their $25M bonus media money. The over-all payroll would come in right around where it was in 2012- this is doable, the Twins just need to be willing to step up to the plate.
    So you want to gut the bullpen of the best pitchers, dump a guy coming off a career worse OPS+ of 98 for a guy with a career OPS+ of 98, add replacement level parts, annd add a starting pitcher. Are you still trying to lose 95 games a season, too? The starters would all have to have sub 3 ERA,, FIP, XFIP, OR SIERA and be able to pitch a complete game when the score was close for the team to even be mediocre with a punchless ofense.

  13. #113
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Physics Guy View Post
    I think we will have to agree to disagree. I think with a rebound by Willingham, more PA by Mauer and improvement from the young guys I like our chances of reaching league average or better. There is also the chance Sano comes up and helps significantly. I'd be curious who you think we should add. Drew is the only guy available in FA that I see helping and I don't like the cost.
    This is going to account for 100 more runs? Mauer's missed PAs largely were replaced by a .963 OPS and 165 OPS+. So let's not pretend we lost a lot there, it's more likely that Mauer/Pinto combined to produce about what Mauer would've done in a full season.

    Can we expect some young players to come forward? Sure, but that is relying on a ton of internal improvement from players with health concerns or unproven track records. The only way this team can be reasonably sure to improve will be to add someone like Drew. Otherwise this is a lot of hope and prayer - generally not reliable avenues of improvement.

  14. #114
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    I hope Betemit isn't being mentioned for any position that requires defense. Same goes for Reynolds.

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  16. #115
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    I like the idea of Betemitt or Young, not so much Reynolds, not for full time defensive positions, of course, but as bats and role players off the bench. Have also come on board for the versatile Baker filling a number of roles.

    Not in favor, however, of trading anyone from the pen until someone steps up in a way to prove they are ready to fill that new hole.

    I really like the idea of a Drew signing. Might step down a it defensively from Floriman/Escobar, but would definitely improve the overall lineup depth. But again, sooner or later there is a financial wall to consider and spending will cease. Now, I would dance a really ugly jig if the Twins signed Drew AND Garza, plus one or two previously mentioned bench options. But I just don't see it happening. Especially when word has it the Twins might be offering more per year to Garza to hep keep the years down.

    Drew would be very nice. But offer him to me for 8-10M per OR Garza, and I'm picking the high quality rotation piece and sticking with Floriman/Escobar and hopefully a little offensive improvement either from natural progression, or simply platoon splits.

  17. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Regarding the Hammer, the Twins likely want him playing in the field to maximize his mid-season trading value- so DH full-time to start out the season is probably a dead letter.
    Teams know what Willingham can do offensively and defensively. The objective should be to keep him healthy.

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  19. #117
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lonestar View Post
    Teams know what Willingham can do offensively and defensively. The objective should be to keep him healthy.
    Agreed.

    If traded, it will because of his bat, and the receiving team will hide him at DH or LF. No-one would trade for Willingham for his defense, but rather a healthy and productive bat. His defensive prowess, such as it is, is already well known.

    Personally, if back to his career norms, and any offers available are lacking in any sort of real quality, not so sure I wouldn't just keep him for the entire season and then re-visit the DH position then.

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  21. #118
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I hope Betemit isn't being mentioned for any position that requires defense. Same goes for Reynolds.
    Compared to Plouffe playing all the games at 3B??

  22. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by Physics Guy View Post
    Compared to Plouffe playing all the games at 3B??
    Plouffe is probably better in the field. Betemit would not be an upgrade.

    The Twins will likely carry 12 pitchers. The bench needs a catcher, middle infielder, 4th OF that can play CF and one more guy until a 13th pitcher is used. Is Betemit the best guy for that role?

  23. #120
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Physics Guy View Post
    I guess this was my view on the whole thing. Drew is the only upgrade in FA and I don't like the contract he is looking for, his injury history nor the draft pick we would have to give up. I was very skeptical that Florimon was that far below his positional average. I truly felt there would probably be easier places, such as corner OF or IF, where we could improve. So I did some digging:

    League Average OPS by Position:
    C - .708 (Pinto had .963 in MLB last year and .882 in AA/AAA)
    1B - .777 (Mauer had .880 last year)
    2B - .709 (Dozier .726, hopefully can stay above .700)
    SS - .682 (Floimon .611 )
    3B - .742 (Plouffe .701, .756 in 2012)
    LF - .724 (Willingham .709, career .830)
    CF - .738 (Hicks .598, Pressley .699)
    RF - .741 (Arcia .734)
    DH - .728 (Parmelee .663)

    SS, CF and DH are the three spots where we are weak. 1B and LF (assuming bounce-back by Willingham) are above average. C and RF could be above average, 2B is fine and 3B is a big question mark until Sano is up. There is reason to hope that CF can be better this year and there is no reason to do anything with Buxton on the way. SS and DH seem to be the areas where the greatest improvement could be made.
    This is good stuff, but there is a huge caveat:

    League average hitting and league average pitching will get you to .500 maybe. I think that with the changes the Twins made, they might actually have league average pitching in 2014. So they need to get the hitting above average, if they were to complete.

    Also, this is very optimistic and assumes a. not regression for players with career seasons (Dozier, Pinto etc.) and b. rebound for players with sub par 2013 (Willingham, Plouffe, Kubel, Parmelee, Suzuki). Likely, this will not happen.

    Not sure what the solution is here (I really would like them to get a legitimate hitter for the OF, pushing a Willingham/Kubel DH platoon for one thing, or have Plouffe there and Sano at 3B) but it looks like the Twins would need break-out performances from their CF, SS and C, potentially Sano at 3B and not much regression, in order to have a respectable 2014.
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