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Thread: Twins "kicking the tires" on Garza

  1. #41
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Brad Swanson's Avatar
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    2015 rotation with Garza:

    Garza
    Nolasco
    Hughes
    Pelfrey
    Gibson
    Meyer

    Obviously the 2015 rotation wouldn't include six guys, but having six legitimate arms potentially in the rotation is pretty nice. This also assumes the Twins don't upgrade between now and then. Trevor May could still take a step forward too. I really think that the 2015 season is the reason to sign Garza right now. Unless the Twins are very confident that they can get an equally impressive arm next off-season, they should just get a good starter like Garza while they can.

    I only see Homer Bailey, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer as true 2015 free agents who I prefer to Garza. I don't think Scherzer and Kershaw make it to free agency, meaning Bailey is the premier arm next off-season. I think the World of Bailey, but he's going to get paid. There are some guys with options for 2015 who might become available, but Johnny Cueto is the only guy I put in Garza's class. This is the best opportunity for the Twins to land a borderline number 2 starter without trading prospects.

    I also think that signing another starter right now is great Hughes insurance, just in case Yankee Stadium wasn't the sole reason for his unimpressive stats. He's proven himself as a late-inning reliever and if he can't start, he might become an expensive set-up man or even closer. That's not ideal, but the Angels paid Joe Smith $15.75 mil over three years, so it's not completely off market value. If Hughes flames out, it would be great to have two starters who we knew would be better than him.
    Last edited by Brad Swanson; 01-02-2014 at 10:29 PM.
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  3. #42
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Monkeypaws's Avatar
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    For the Twins, having a surplus of anything would be good - starting pitching? I can't imagine a Twins team with that. Maybe the 65 Twins. 87 and 91they won World Series with short staffs.

  4. #43
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Monkeypaws View Post
    For the Twins, having a surplus of anything would be good - starting pitching? I can't imagine a Twins team with that. Maybe the 65 Twins. 87 and 91they won World Series with short staffs.
    I wouldn't say the 91 Twins had a short staff. They had four different pitchers win MLB pitcher of the month awards. That top 3 rivals any top 3 in Twins history.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  5. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I won't complain if the Twins signed Garza but I think I'd stay pat for now. Next year might be a better year to go after a top flight pitcher - more will be on the market and I think Garza is over rated - and the Twins will have a better idea of where they stand with Meyer, Gibson, May as well as the bats.
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Agreed. I won't complain if they sign him but I'm not sure it's the best course of action this season.
    Next years FA SP isn't really something worth waiting for....

    All these top guys will be tendered and require a 1st rnd pick. Im assuming Sherzer & Kershaw are resigned.

    Bailey - There won't be a Tanaka to distract the big spenders.
    Masterson - A fairly equal comparison to Garza
    Lester - A nice #2 & close to Garza albeit a year older
    Shields - Can't see KC not resigning after giving up Myers for him
    --------------------------------------------------------------
    Won't require a 1st round pick
    Gallardo - Maybe available if the Brewers buyout his 13 mill option which seems likely at this point.
    Peavy - Hurt way to much

    Considering the draft pick compensation, none of those pitchers are a true upgrade over Garza.
    Last edited by Trevor0333; 01-03-2014 at 12:07 AM.

  6. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    "We don't need left-handed pitchers. We need pitchers who can get left-handed batters out." -- Anon (anyone with a source?)
    I said it, hah!

  7. #46
    Senior Member Triple-A Reider's Avatar
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    I like the idea of signing Garza. I would have been happy with only signing 2 starting pitchers this off season + 1 high risk guy like Johan Santana. However, if you consider that

    a) Hughes is a bit of a question mark
    b) Deduno's health
    c) Correia's contract expires in a year
    d) Budget is a non-factor
    e) Injuries occur throughout the season and
    f) There's always room in the bullpen

    Signing Garza would not create a bad problem at all. After 3 horrible seasons, it's not hurting my feelings that the Twins are kicking tires, knocking doors down, and bringing in anyone who will sign on the dotted line.

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  9. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by halfchest View Post
    Here's the thing. I was chatting with a friend who I consider to be " a great baseball mind". I was curious what he was thinking about the recent Pelfrey signing and continued interest in other pitchers. He said . . . "sign all the pitchers" . . . . I laughed etc. all that crap. However, he made a point to me. Pitchers are always tradeable, especially veterans. Even if a guy has been mediocre, as long as he has some sort of decent track record they can be sold. If they are doing well, they can bring great returns too. So can you have too much pitching? I don't know. They're always able to be dealt. Especially if they're on short term deals. Think of worst case scenarios here.

    Pelfrey . . . he's awful and you cut him part way into the season and have 6 million wasted next year.
    Correia . . . one year deal, not really any worst case scenario with a team like this and a low payroll. If he's awful you cut can run
    Hughes . . . Cant hack it as a starter, return him to a reliever role and his past shows he will be good. You're overpaying for a good reliever but it's not fully wasted. Good relievers (not closers) get 3-5 million per year. so you may have overpaid a reliever 3-4 mil per year for a couple years.
    Nolasco and Garza. . . I include them together. Both have a solid track record. I think worst case they underperform a bit but are still a tradeable commodity. May not get what you want for them but really what are you out by trading a guy you acquired as a free agent. As long as you don't include too much cash in the trade, your'e not limiting yourself.

    Point being, a Garza trade wont' limit this team. I just listed what are in my opinion the worst case scenarios. If they all turn out and worst case scenarios are what happen then the Twins are cursed and nothing they can do will help.

    Final point: I like getting Garza on anything that is 4 years + an option or less. As long as it's around the 15-16 million per year.
    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    I like the idea of signing Garza. I would have been happy with only signing 2 starting pitchers this off season + 1 high risk guy like Johan Santana. However, if you consider that

    a) Hughes is a bit of a question mark
    b) Deduno's health
    c) Correia's contract expires in a year
    d) Budget is a non-factor
    e) Injuries occur throughout the season and
    f) There's always room in the bullpen

    Signing Garza would not create a bad problem at all. After 3 horrible seasons, it's not hurting my feelings that the Twins are kicking tires, knocking doors down, and bringing in anyone who will sign on the dotted line.


    I am in full agreement with the gist of your posts, particularly the bolded statement. Getting Garza at 4 years ( I'd prefer 3 years) gives you solid options, moving one or more of the curent hottest SPs who don't fit in to your long-term plans- or moving a guy like Correa in ST when his tradng value could potentially be at its height from teams desperate for a proven veteran 5th SP option. And the other guys that signed, like Hughes and Pelphrey know they have to bring it.

    Moreover, the Twins should still be thinking about taking a no-downside minor league flyer on Johan if his physical indicates even a small chance of some decent innings (he's got to have more left in the tank than either Harden or Perez had, right?), and/or looking to stockpile international unknowns or bounceback guys like Suk-Min Yoon (when would Boras ever find the time to somehow extract an expensive deal for him?), Chris Capuano and even, Joe Blanton (who's rumored to possibly be released outright by the Angels in Spring Training).

    Having even more past-proven and bounceback motivated talent in the organization working hard to force the issue for available innings can only help change the too-comfortable culture of the last 2 years---the nightmare scenario, where a stable full of SP AAAA-level-types....and worse.... on scholarship or throwing out of sheer desperation and being "led" by Jason Marquis/Vance Worley-types really hurt the Twins credibility.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-03-2014 at 12:17 AM.

  10. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor0333 View Post

    Considering the draft pick compensation, none of those pitchers are a true upgrade over Garza.
    You're giving Garza way too much credit.
    2010 - 204 ip 100 ERA+, 1.7 WAR
    2011 - 198 ip 118 ERA+ 2.8 WAR
    2012 - 104 ip 105 ERA+ 1.2 WAR
    2013 - 155 ip 106 ERA+ 1.4 WAR

    4 yr avg - 165ip 107 ERA+ 1.8 WAR. I think Twins fans overrate him b/c of the Young trade but he's never really been a front line starter and he hasn't been close to that since 09.

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  12. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    You're giving Garza way too much credit.
    2010 - 204 ip 100 ERA+, 1.7 WAR
    2011 - 198 ip 118 ERA+ 2.8 WAR
    2012 - 104 ip 105 ERA+ 1.2 WAR
    2013 - 155 ip 106 ERA+ 1.4 WAR

    4 yr avg - 165ip 107 ERA+ 1.8 WAR. I think Twins fans overrate him b/c of the Young trade but he's never really been a front line starter and he hasn't been close to that since 09.
    2010 -2013 (4 yr.) [fWAR/ERA/ERA+/IP*YR]....... for Twins Potential Rotation Members


    Nolasco [11.0/4.34/92/188]
    Garza [9.9/3.72/107/165]
    Hughes [6.8/4.62/89/146]
    Pelfrey [5.8/4.38/88/142]*
    Worley [4.1/4.12/93/106]*
    Diamond [2.5/4.43/90/114]*
    Correia [1.6/4.63/83/160]

    Garza's best year, arguably, is 2011 (fWAR 4.9, ERA+ 118), not 2009 (fWAR 2.9, ERA+ 110), but even at close to a gentleman's wash- it's only 2 years removed. And Garza's superior peripherals give him the most upside and at the very least, by far the best chance in this group to be a #2 level starter....perhaps make the contract more incentive-laden? On a 3-year deal, if you could get one year close to '09 level and another close to '11 level and get an incentive-inspired average of 185 IP/yr over the contract, Goofy as Garza was (is?), I would argue it's well worth the risk in getting this level of pitching talent without the loss of a #1 pick.


    * 3 years of data, not 4.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-03-2014 at 01:21 AM.

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  14. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    You're giving Garza way too much credit.
    2010 - 204 ip 100 ERA+, 1.7 WAR
    2011 - 198 ip 118 ERA+ 2.8 WAR
    2012 - 104 ip 105 ERA+ 1.2 WAR
    2013 - 155 ip 106 ERA+ 1.4 WAR

    4 yr avg - 165ip 107 ERA+ 1.8 WAR. I think Twins fans overrate him b/c of the Young trade but he's never really been a front line starter and he hasn't been close to that since 09.
    Bailey IP 109/132/208/209 ERA+ 91/89/112/110 WAR 0.4/0.4/2.5/3.2
    Masterson IP 180/216/206/193 ERA+ 84/122/79/109 WAR 0.0/4.1/0.3/3.4
    Lester IP 208/191/205/213 ERA+ 134/124/87/109 WAR 5.2/4.4/0.7/3.0
    Shields IP 203/249/227/228 ERA+ 75/134/109/131 WAR -1.5/5.2/2.7/4.1

    Garza 165-107-1.8
    --------------------------------
    Lester 204-113-3.3
    Shields 227-112-2.6
    Masterson 199-98-1.9
    Bailey 165-101-1.6

    Garza probably fits right in the middle of that group, Im not saying that he is surely better than the group, he isnt very far behind. When factoring in the extra contract cost & the 1st round pick. I think it's pretty safe to say those other available FA SP in 2015 likely won't be much of an upgrade over Garza if at all.

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  16. #51
    3/$45 + $15 4th year if he pitches 180 innings in 3rd year.

  17. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    3/$45 + $15 4th year if he pitches 180 innings in 3rd year.
    Sold! Where do I sign?

  18. #53
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    Might not have been him but he probably went to school with the guy.
    Be careful. Because I know a guy.
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  20. #54

    Well, HBD, I disagree with you on the Garza option, but...

    Quote Originally Posted by Hosken Bombo Disco View Post
    This would be the opposite of fantastic.
    Yeh, I think signing Garza and moving Correia would be a blessed event. But I do have to tell you how I managed to pass milk through my nose at your outstanding screen name-- even though I was drinking Boddy's at the time....

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  22. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by halfchest View Post
    Here's the thing. I was chatting with a friend who I consider to be " a great baseball mind". I was curious what he was thinking about the recent Pelfrey signing and continued interest in other pitchers. He said . . . "sign all the pitchers" . . . . I laughed etc. all that crap. However, he made a point to me. Pitchers are always tradeable, especially veterans. Even if a guy has been mediocre, as long as he has some sort of decent track record they can be sold. If they are doing well, they can bring great returns too. So can you have too much pitching? I don't know. They're always able to be dealt. Especially if they're on short term deals. Think of worst case scenarios here.

    Pelfrey . . . he's awful and you cut him part way into the season and have 6 million wasted next year.
    Correia . . . one year deal, not really any worst case scenario with a team like this and a low payroll. If he's awful you cut can run
    Hughes . . . Cant hack it as a starter, return him to a reliever role and his past shows he will be good. You're overpaying for a good reliever but it's not fully wasted. Good relievers (not closers) get 3-5 million per year. so you may have overpaid a reliever 3-4 mil per year for a couple years.
    Nolasco and Garza. . . I include them together. Both have a solid track record. I think worst case they underperform a bit but are still a tradeable commodity. May not get what you want for them but really what are you out by trading a guy you acquired as a free agent. As long as you don't include too much cash in the trade, your'e not limiting yourself.

    Point being, a Garza trade wont' limit this team. I just listed what are in my opinion the worst case scenarios. If they all turn out and worst case scenarios are what happen then the Twins are cursed and nothing they can do will help.

    Final point: I like getting Garza on anything that is 4 years + an option or less. As long as it's around the 15-16 million per year.

    Strongly agree with this post. Garza is a far more valuable starter than Pelfrey, Correia and Hughes at this point. Plus he's only 30 years old. I can't understand Ryan's reluctance on this deal. Give him 4 years + a mutual option year at 15 million a season and see if he bites. If he still wants more than walk away with your head held high.

    If he agrees to sign you have a STRONG 1 2 punch in Nolasco & Garza and this allows you to move Correia to a team needing starters like the Orioles for an infielder or a PTBNL. If Pelfrey and Hughes also have good seasons they could be moved as well. On the flip side if both fall short of expectations Pelfrey is only under contract for 1 more season and Hughes could go back into the bullpen as a long reliever or closer.

    Signing Garza will not jeopardize the payroll nor block younger starters in AA/AAA from moving up. Best case scenario their are three ready in Gibson, Meyer and May. The latter two would like be late September callups at the earliest.
    Last edited by laloesch; 01-03-2014 at 08:51 AM.

  23. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor0333 View Post
    Bailey IP 109/132/208/209 ERA+ 91/89/112/110 WAR 0.4/0.4/2.5/3.2
    Masterson IP 180/216/206/193 ERA+ 84/122/79/109 WAR 0.0/4.1/0.3/3.4
    Lester IP 208/191/205/213 ERA+ 134/124/87/109 WAR 5.2/4.4/0.7/3.0
    Shields IP 203/249/227/228 ERA+ 75/134/109/131 WAR -1.5/5.2/2.7/4.1

    Garza 165-107-1.8
    --------------------------------
    Lester 204-113-3.3
    Shields 227-112-2.6
    Masterson 199-98-1.9
    Bailey 165-101-1.6

    Garza probably fits right in the middle of that group, Im not saying that he is surely better than the group, he isnt very far behind. When factoring in the extra contract cost & the 1st round pick. I think it's pretty safe to say those other available FA SP in 2015 likely won't be much of an upgrade over Garza if at all.
    Well done and really good points. Also need to consider that in all likelihood these guys may never see free agency. Bailey to me is the only lock to hit free agency. I bet both Masterson and Lester get locked up by their clubs. Shields I could also see hitting free agency.

    Garza really may be the perfect mix of age/upside/price.

  24. #57
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    I can't understand Ryan's reluctance on this deal.
    His reluctance is health. They know this guy's arm better than any other pitcher on the market. They got him in the 20s in the draft because of health concerns by several scouts, stemming from a screw that is still in his elbow from an old surgery. He has defied the odds to this point to stay healthy and put up good innings totals. Signing him to a long-term deal is very risky. They would rather spend more per year and have a shorter contract to manage this risk better. Garza's agent wants a long-term deal for the very reason teams do not. That's why he is yet unsigned.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  25. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brad Swanson View Post
    2015 rotation with Garza:

    Garza
    Nolasco
    Hughes
    Pelfrey
    Gibson
    Meyer

    Obviously the 2015 rotation wouldn't include six guys, but having six legitimate arms potentially in the rotation is pretty nice.
    This rotation doesn't win the AL pennant though. If the Twins could get Kershaw then perhaps. This rotation seems like a .500 team.

  26. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor0333 View Post
    Bailey IP 109/132/208/209 ERA+ 91/89/112/110 WAR 0.4/0.4/2.5/3.2
    Masterson IP 180/216/206/193 ERA+ 84/122/79/109 WAR 0.0/4.1/0.3/3.4
    Lester IP 208/191/205/213 ERA+ 134/124/87/109 WAR 5.2/4.4/0.7/3.0
    Shields IP 203/249/227/228 ERA+ 75/134/109/131 WAR -1.5/5.2/2.7/4.1

    Garza 165-107-1.8
    --------------------------------
    Lester 204-113-3.3
    Shields 227-112-2.6
    Masterson 199-98-1.9
    Bailey 165-101-1.6

    Garza probably fits right in the middle of that group, Im not saying that he is surely better than the group, he isnt very far behind. When factoring in the extra contract cost & the 1st round pick. I think it's pretty safe to say those other available FA SP in 2015 likely won't be much of an upgrade over Garza if at all.
    I think he falls in last of that group - esp when factoring trend lines. Bailey and Masterson will both be younger than Garza is now next offseason. Shields will be 33 so won't get as many years so might be a safer bet. Lester will resign w/Boston. Scherzer will be the prize of next offseason. And there are a few other potentially solid, albeit lesser, arms that could be had - McCarthy, Floyd, Gallardo. I'm not saying Garza wouldn't be nice but I think he's being overrated a bit around here. Although, as someone noted, fangraphs likes him a lot more than b-r.

  27. #60
    I'd be shocked if TR was looking for more than a one-year make-good deal for Garza. Remember that Garza and Gardy didn't exactly see eye-to-eye when he was coming up. I'd bet TR is offering one-year at about $15 mil with a club option for year 2 just in case nobody else makes a move on him before spring training. Any longer than two years would shock me.

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