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Thread: Article: A Hall Without Jack Morris Is No Hall at All

  1. #61
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Untrue. Read this article.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=1815

    There is no such thing as "pitching to the scoreboard". Morris simply wasn't very good at preventing runs. Full stop.
    That is really some outstanding analysis done in that link.

    I know there is a big push-back on the "stat-heads" for removing the romance of the game, but articles like this prove why it's such a valuable component to analyzing a career. There are so many assumptions driving the debate for Morris that stats can eliminate because they aren't biased.

    I wish some would understand that the romance doesn't die just because the analysis gets better.

  2. #62
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Really, if you want to use WAR as your guiedeline (or any other metric), any question of "does a guy belong in the Hall" can be reduced to a simple baseball-reference lookup.

    Someone with a B-R subscription, do a pitching season finder (combined seasons or careeers) for the following:

    Years 1957-2013
    Min. 1000 IP.

    Jack pitched (1977-1994). Any 17 year period, on average, will capture all or part of 22 HoF pitchers. Does WAR say Jack one of the 22 best to have pitched at some point in this timeframe? (I am too lazy/cheap to look for myself).

  3. #63
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    Not to be terribly nit picky but Carlton was pretty much done by 1984. The Jack Morris era was 1979-1994. In that era by fwar, all that are above him are in the HOF. Gooden may have been a better pitcher but his career lasted just long enough to be qualified to be in the hall but not enough to accumulate fwar to match Morris . The list of position players with more fwar than Morriss and not in the HOF is a lot longer. Morris was a top 6 pitcher for his era. It has more to do with there were not that many elite pitchers in that same span.

  4. #64
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Brad Swanson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Really, if you want to use WAR as your guiedeline (or any other metric), any question of "does a guy belong in the Hall" can be reduced to a simple baseball-reference lookup.

    Someone with a B-R subscription, do a pitching season finder (combined seasons or careeers) for the following:

    Years 1957-2013
    Min. 1000 IP.

    Jack pitched (1977-1994). Any 17 year period, on average, will capture all or part of 22 HoF pitchers. Does WAR say Jack one of the 22 best to have pitched at some point in this timeframe? (I am too lazy/cheap to look for myself).
    http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/O8LXQ

    Morris is 62nd, right below Bartolo Colon and right above Bob Welch.
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  6. #65
    Senior Member All-Star Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
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    Quick Quiz...

    Name:____________________

    1. T or F: Ozzie Smith is in the Hall of Fame.

    2. T or F: In all time batting average for shortstops, Ozzie Smith rates somewhere between Trevor Plouffe and Jason Bartlett.

    3. T or F: In all time fielding percentage for shortstops, Ozzie Smith rates somewhere between David Eckstein and Stephen Drew.

    How'd you do!?

  7. #66
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hosken Bombo Disco View Post
    Quick Quiz...

    Name:____________________

    1. T or F: Ozzie Smith is in the Hall of Fame.

    2. T or F: In all time batting average for shortstops, Ozzie Smith rates somewhere between Trevor Plouffe and Jason Bartlett.

    3. T or F: In all time fielding percentage for shortstops, Ozzie Smith rates somewhere between David Eckstein and Stephen Drew.

    How'd you do!?
    Wrong questions

    T or F: Ozzie Smith ranks first among short stops in WAR (which takes account both offense and defense).

    That's why he is and should be in the HOF.
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  8. #67
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    There were 124 pitchers who threw min. 1000 IP and whose careers partially or totally are captured in the years 1977-1994. They are

    Row Labels Sum of WAR
    Roger Clemens 139.2
    Tom Seaver 106.1
    Greg Maddux 104.8
    Randy Johnson 104.1
    Phil Niekro 97.3
    Bert Blyleven 96.4
    Gaylord Perry 93.6
    Pedro Martinez 85.9
    Steve Carlton 84
    Nolan Ryan 83.7
    Fergie Jenkins 82.7
    Mike Mussina 82.7
    Curt Schilling 80.7
    Tom Glavine 74
    Don Sutton 68.8
    Kevin Brown 68.7
    Rick Reuschel 68.2
    Jim Palmer 67.9
    John Smoltz 66.6
    Luis Tiant 65.9
    Tommy John 62.2
    David Cone 61.8
    Bret Saberhagen 59.2
    Chuck Finley 58.4
    Frank Tanana 57.6
    Jerry Koosman 57.2
    Dave Stieb 56.8
    Kevin Appier 55
    David Wells 53.5
    Wilbur Wood 52.3
    Orel Hershiser 51.7
    Kenny Rogers 51.1
    Jamie Moyer 50.3
    Mark Langston 50.2
    Jimmy Key 49.4
    Mickey Lolich 48.9
    Dwight Gooden 48
    Ron Guidry 47.9
    Frank Viola 47.3
    Steve Rogers 45.4
    Jim Kaat 45.4
    Vida Blue 45.1
    Jack Morris 43.9
    Bob Welch 43.6
    Al Leiter 42.7
    Tom Candiotti 42.6
    Rich Gossage 41.9
    Danny Darwin 40.6
    John Candelaria 40.1
    Charlie Hough 39.3
    Jon Matlack 39
    Mark Gubicza 37.6
    Andy Messersmith 37.4
    Fernando Valenzuela 37.3
    Burt Hooton 36.5
    Catfish Hunter 36.5
    Jose Rijo 35
    Tom Gordon 35
    Bruce Hurst 35
    Doyle Alexander 34.8
    Larry Dierker 34.4
    John Tudor 34.3
    Tim Wakefield 34.3
    Charlie Leibrandt 34.3
    Pat Hentgen 33
    Jerry Reuss 32.8
    Rick Wise 32
    Mike Boddicker 31.7
    Andy Benes 31.4
    John Hiller 31.4
    Sid Fernandez 31.3
    Rick Sutcliffe 31.2
    John Denny 31.1
    Teddy Higuera 30.7
    Jim Barr 30.6
    Greg Swindell 30.3
    Rick Rhoden 30.1
    Scott Sanderson 29.7
    Lee Smith 29.5
    Mike Cuellar 29.5
    Kevin Tapani 29.2
    Mike Morgan 29
    Joe Niekro 28.6
    Pedro Astacio 28.5
    Mike Moore 28.2
    Trevor Hoffman 28.2
    Jack McDowell 27.9
    Alex Fernandez 27.8
    Doug Drabek 27.7
    Woody Williams 27.7
    Ken Forsch 27.1
    Ken Holtzman 27.1
    Mario Soto 26.8
    Tim Belcher 26.8
    Floyd Bannister 26.4
    Dennis Leonard 26.3
    Dave Stewart 26.2
    Kevin Gross 26.2
    Ramon Martinez 26.1
    Kent Tekulve 26.1
    Mike Flanagan 26
    Gary Nolan 25.8
    Jon Lieber 25.5
    Jeff Fassero 25.2
    Joe Coleman 25.1
    Charles Nagy 25.1
    Rollie Fingers 25.1
    Ron Reed 25.1
    Wilson Alvarez 25
    Dan Quisenberry 24.8
    Scott Erickson 24.8
    Steve Trachsel 24.8
    Juan Guzman 24.7
    Chris Bosio 24.6
    Bob Ojeda 24.6
    Ismael Valdez 24.5
    Bruce Sutter 24.5
    Mike Torrez 24.1
    Stan Bahnsen 24
    Mike Scott 23.9
    Bill Gullickson 23.9
    Bob Stanley 23.9
    John Franco 23.5
    Dave Goltz 23.4
    There's Morris at 43.

  9. #68
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hosken Bombo Disco View Post
    Quick Quiz...

    Name:____________________

    1. T or F: Ozzie Smith is in the Hall of Fame.

    2. T or F: In all time batting average for shortstops, Ozzie Smith rates somewhere between Trevor Plouffe and Jason Bartlett.

    3. T or F: In all time fielding percentage for shortstops, Ozzie Smith rates somewhere between David Eckstein and Stephen Drew.

    How'd you do!?
    Reggie Jackson had the same batting average as Ozzie Smith.

    Obviously, we should keep him out of the Hall for that.

  10. #69
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Reggie Jackson had the same batting average as Ozzie Smith.

    Obviously, we should keep him out of the Hall for that.
    His BA was better than Koufax's though. I vote to keep him in.

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  12. #70
    Senior Member All-Star Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Wrong questions

    T or F: Ozzie Smith ranks first among short stops in WAR (which takes account both offense and defense).

    That's why he is and should be in the HOF.
    Oh this is the Hall of Sabermetrics thread?-- I thought we were in the Hall of Fame thread *face palm*

    Seriously I do agree that Morris's numbers fall short. The great Detroit teams with Sparky, Gibson, Trammel, Whitaker, the ace of those great teams was Morris. Hands down. He's kind of the last guy from the by gone era when pitchers pitched complete games on 3 days rest (which would put GMs jobs at stake today) and when DL trips were few and far between. Oh well. There's the 1991 Game 7 display in the HOF so that makes me feel better. Bottom line for me is Morris will be remembered.

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    What is being forgotten in this article that I wrote was that my argument for Morris is not solely based on statistics or any Sabermetrics analysis. The reason I used the Puckett comparison is to show that statistics aren't the only reason a player gets elected to the Hall. I do not believe that Puckett's statistics alone got him in the Hall. To me, there has to be more to it than that. That is why I believe that Morris deserved to be in the Hall as well because there are other factors besides his statistics that make him a Hall of Famer in my book. Is there merit in the statistical argument? Absolutely; but to me, statistics are not the sole thing that gets someone elected into the Hall of Fame because if the Hall was solely based on statistics and statistics alone, then the PED users and guys like Pete Rose deserve to be in. Instead, these players are banished because of their behavior or decisions. Morris may have had a bristly personality and it may have turned some people away, but I do not believe that should prevent voters from voting for him. They may have based their decision on Sabermetrics or whatever, but I do not believe that is solely right.

    If you look at pitchers from the early 1900s and you see that they won an astronomical number of games--records that will likely never be broken--with an astounding number of starts and innings and then tried to compare all other pitchers from different eras to that era, nobody would come close to their production. No pitchers would be allowed in because if we judged everyone by the standard set then, everyone would fall short. Players are different now. The game is different now. Should we leave people out from different eras who were the best players of their respective eras even though it statistical doesn't compare well to other eras? I believe the answer to that is no and I'm sorry, but no statistical or Sabermetrical analysis will change that opinion for me.

    At some point, the Hall of Fame needs to take into consideration more than just statistics and I believe, in some aspects, they already do. I argue that if you solely base your justifications on statistics and Sabermetrics, the Hall of Fame's standards are very fluid. The eye test is very subjective, but it still has some weight and if managers like Bobby Cox (one of the greatest of all time) are endorsing Jack Morris, there has to be something there. Does not being in the Hall of Fame mean that Morris had a poor career? No, but I do believe he was worthy of being elected and the fact that he wasn't elected frustrates me.

  14. #72
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bwille View Post
    The reason I used the Puckett comparison is to show that statistics aren't the only reason a player gets elected to the Hall. I do not believe that Puckett's statistics alone got him in the Hall. To me, there has to be more to it than that. That is why I believe that Morris deserved to be in the Hall as well because there are other factors besides his statistics that make him a Hall of Famer in my book.
    Let's be honest here. Puckett was a first ballot sympathy vote. An extremely talented player that everybody loved, a guy who had one of the most memorable WS moments in history, a guy whose career was cut short at age 36 when he was still a very productive player.

    At his peak, Puckett was an incredible player. Do his counting stats warrant a HoF vote? No, they probably don't... But voters took into consideration that his career was cut short by as many as three productive seasons and voted for him anyway. There's your difference. Jack Morris had a full, productive career. Puckett had three-quarters of a career before retiring due to glaucoma.

    Quote Originally Posted by bwille View Post
    If you look at pitchers from the early 1900s and you see that they won an astronomical number of games--records that will likely never be broken--with an astounding number of starts and innings and then tried to compare all other pitchers from different eras to that era, nobody would come close to their production. No pitchers would be allowed in because if we judged everyone by the standard set then, everyone would fall short. Players are different now. The game is different now. Should we leave people out from different eras who were the best players of their respective eras even though it statistical doesn't compare well to other eras? I believe the answer to that is no and I'm sorry, but no statistical or Sabermetrical analysis will change that opinion for me.
    But was Morris the best player of his generation? He was the most durable, sure. But the best? It's hard to make that argument. At any given moment in Morris' career, there was somebody else in the limelight, whether it was Hershiser, Saberhagen, Clemens, or Gooden.

  15. #73
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Brad Swanson's Avatar
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    I have to admit, I don't fully understand the Puckett comparison. Puckett doesn't meet the longevity argument because he lost his career to an eye condition at a youngish age. Most of Morris' argument comes partially from his longevity. Puckett got in because he was dynamic while active and I'm guessing some voters projected some productivity from the years that he lost to his condition.

    The Opening Day starts and Game 1 World Series starts are nice, but you can't just measure a player on those factors. Look at Dan Petry's stats from 1982-1985. I think it is fair to say he was at least as good as Morris, if not better. But, he was four years younger and had been with the team for less time. In addition, Morris was the Opening Day starter in 1989, 1990, 1992 and 1993, all seasons in which he didn't really pitch like an "Ace."

    It's great that he was the best pitcher of his exact era, but how many pitchers pitched the exact same years that Morris did?
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    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Let's be honest here. Puckett was a first ballot sympathy vote. An extremely talented player that everybody loved, a guy who had one of the most memorable WS moments in history, a guy whose career was cut short at age 36 when he was still a very productive player.

    At his peak, Puckett was an incredible player. Do his counting stats warrant a HoF vote? No, they probably don't... But voters took into consideration that his career was cut short by as many as three productive seasons and voted for him anyway. There's your difference. Jack Morris had a full, productive career. Puckett had three-quarters of a career before retiring due to glaucoma.



    But was Morris the best player of his generation? He was the most durable, sure. But the best? It's hard to make that argument. At any given moment in Morris' career, there was somebody else in the limelight, whether it was Hershiser, Saberhagen, Clemens, or Gooden.
    Right. He never won a Cy Young award, for example.
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  17. #75
    Spy cake @ 10:32am. Records you want? Blyleven got Roberts record of HR's allowed.
    If the focus to leave both of them out on the face of HR's allowed there would be a case. Neither were the most dominant pitcher in their era either.

    But, they are both in.

  18. #76
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brad Swanson View Post
    I have to admit, I don't fully understand the Puckett comparison. Puckett doesn't meet the longevity argument because he lost his career to an eye condition at a youngish age. Most of Morris' argument comes partially from his longevity. Puckett got in because he was dynamic while active and I'm guessing some voters projected some productivity from the years that he lost to his condition.

    The Opening Day starts and Game 1 World Series starts are nice, but you can't just measure a player on those factors. Look at Dan Petry's stats from 1982-1985. I think it is fair to say he was at least as good as Morris, if not better. But, he was four years younger and had been with the team for less time. In addition, Morris was the Opening Day starter in 1989, 1990, 1992 and 1993, all seasons in which he didn't really pitch like an "Ace."

    It's great that he was the best pitcher of his exact era, but how many pitchers pitched the exact same years that Morris did?
    If you wanted to contrast two players from the same era, you would be hard pressed to pick two more different players. In particular, Kirby was a 90 on a scale of 100 in intangibles. Morris was a 40. He had all the competitiveness of Puck, with none of the charm.

    (Now, Puck was voted in before all his off-field stuff came to light. I'm not sure he would have made the Veteran's Committee vote if he hadn't been voted in.)
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  19. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by bwille View Post
    What is being forgotten in this article that I wrote was that my argument for Morris is not solely based on statistics or any Sabermetrics analysis. The reason I used the Puckett comparison is to show that statistics aren't the only reason a player gets elected to the Hall. I do not believe that Puckett's statistics alone got him in the Hall. To me, there has to be more to it than that. That is why I believe that Morris deserved to be in the Hall as well because there are other factors besides his statistics that make him a Hall of Famer in my book.
    Acutally this is why Morris does not belong in the Hall of Fame. Puckett got into the Hall because his reputation during his playing days and upon his retirement was that he was a HOF caliber player. This is evidenced by his high vote total his first year eligible and the many All-Star game appearances and MVP votes he got. He didn't need the stats to get in.

    Morris was struggling to get 20% of the vote on his first ballots and didn't get nearly the All-Star and Cy Young love that Puckett got. That demonstrates "the other factors" were not there for Morris, at least not like they were for other Hall of Famers who made it in based on reputation over stats.

    Puckett was recognized as a HOF player while he was active, Morris was not. What could have changed?

  20. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    There were 124 pitchers who threw min. 1000 IP and whose careers partially or totally are captured in the years 1977-1994. They are

    Row Labels Sum of WAR
    Roger Clemens 139.2
    Tom Seaver 106.1
    Greg Maddux 104.8
    Randy Johnson 104.1
    Phil Niekro 97.3
    Bert Blyleven 96.4
    Gaylord Perry 93.6
    Pedro Martinez 85.9
    Steve Carlton 84
    Nolan Ryan 83.7
    Fergie Jenkins 82.7
    Mike Mussina 82.7
    Curt Schilling 80.7
    Tom Glavine 74
    Don Sutton 68.8
    Kevin Brown 68.7
    Rick Reuschel 68.2
    Jim Palmer 67.9
    John Smoltz 66.6
    Luis Tiant 65.9
    Tommy John 62.2
    David Cone 61.8
    Bret Saberhagen 59.2
    Chuck Finley 58.4
    Frank Tanana 57.6
    Jerry Koosman 57.2
    Dave Stieb 56.8
    Kevin Appier 55
    David Wells 53.5
    Wilbur Wood 52.3
    Orel Hershiser 51.7
    Kenny Rogers 51.1
    Jamie Moyer 50.3
    Mark Langston 50.2
    Jimmy Key 49.4
    Mickey Lolich 48.9
    Dwight Gooden 48
    Ron Guidry 47.9
    Frank Viola 47.3
    Steve Rogers 45.4
    Jim Kaat 45.4
    Vida Blue 45.1
    Jack Morris 43.9
    Bob Welch 43.6
    Al Leiter 42.7
    Tom Candiotti 42.6
    Rich Gossage 41.9
    Danny Darwin 40.6
    John Candelaria 40.1
    Charlie Hough 39.3
    Jon Matlack 39
    Mark Gubicza 37.6
    Andy Messersmith 37.4
    Fernando Valenzuela 37.3
    Burt Hooton 36.5
    Catfish Hunter 36.5
    Jose Rijo 35
    Tom Gordon 35
    Bruce Hurst 35
    Doyle Alexander 34.8
    Larry Dierker 34.4
    John Tudor 34.3
    Tim Wakefield 34.3
    Charlie Leibrandt 34.3
    Pat Hentgen 33
    Jerry Reuss 32.8
    Rick Wise 32
    Mike Boddicker 31.7
    Andy Benes 31.4
    John Hiller 31.4
    Sid Fernandez 31.3
    Rick Sutcliffe 31.2
    John Denny 31.1
    Teddy Higuera 30.7
    Jim Barr 30.6
    Greg Swindell 30.3
    Rick Rhoden 30.1
    Scott Sanderson 29.7
    Lee Smith 29.5
    Mike Cuellar 29.5
    Kevin Tapani 29.2
    Mike Morgan 29
    Joe Niekro 28.6
    Pedro Astacio 28.5
    Mike Moore 28.2
    Trevor Hoffman 28.2
    Jack McDowell 27.9
    Alex Fernandez 27.8
    Doug Drabek 27.7
    Woody Williams 27.7
    Ken Forsch 27.1
    Ken Holtzman 27.1
    Mario Soto 26.8
    Tim Belcher 26.8
    Floyd Bannister 26.4
    Dennis Leonard 26.3
    Dave Stewart 26.2
    Kevin Gross 26.2
    Ramon Martinez 26.1
    Kent Tekulve 26.1
    Mike Flanagan 26
    Gary Nolan 25.8
    Jon Lieber 25.5
    Jeff Fassero 25.2
    Joe Coleman 25.1
    Charles Nagy 25.1
    Rollie Fingers 25.1
    Ron Reed 25.1
    Wilson Alvarez 25
    Dan Quisenberry 24.8
    Scott Erickson 24.8
    Steve Trachsel 24.8
    Juan Guzman 24.7
    Chris Bosio 24.6
    Bob Ojeda 24.6
    Ismael Valdez 24.5
    Bruce Sutter 24.5
    Mike Torrez 24.1
    Stan Bahnsen 24
    Mike Scott 23.9
    Bill Gullickson 23.9
    Bob Stanley 23.9
    John Franco 23.5
    Dave Goltz 23.4
    There's Morris at 43.
    In your method of looking at players you would then consider Randy Johnson, Vida Blue and Jim Kaat contemporaries of Morris. That hardly refutes the notion that Morris was the dominate pitcher of the 1980's.

  21. #79
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    In your method of looking at players you would then consider Randy Johnson, Vida Blue and Jim Kaat contemporaries of Morris. That hardly refutes the notion that Morris was the dominate pitcher of the 1980's.
    Randy Johnson is in a different stratosphere than Morris and the others mentioned here. Same era, but dominant, unlike Morris. There are 38 pitchers between Randy Johnson and Morris. And there are 24 pitchers between Morris and the closest Hall of Famer (Jim Palmer.) And, yes, Gooden and Viola (and Wells and Stieb) were true Aces (unlike Morris) in Morris' time but they are not in the Hall as well.
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    I don't really get worked about Hall of Fame votes, for a great many reasons. But one of the things to keep in mind with the Hall of Fame (in other sports as well) it is really the Hall of the Famous. There were contemparies of Brooks Robinson whose numbers are roughly comparable, they just didn't happen to play for as good of a team or put on an incredible World Series defensive performance just when TV was becoming big.

    In the case of Blyleven, he had no chance of getting into the Hall of Fame until he became a broadcaster and basically compaigned for it for 10 years. That doesn't mean he didn't deserve it necessarily, but he had never had a great series of peak years, he wasn't the ace on any of the playoff teams he played for, and spent some of his best years in Texas, Minnesota and Cleveland when nobody was paying any attention to those teams.


    To some degree, whether it is fair or not, all marginal candidates run into those sort of issues. You need something to set you apart from the crowd if your numbers don't clearly put you in the Hall of Fame. Hall of Fame voters are going to get ripped no matter what they do. Everyone has different standards for the Hall of Fame and virtually any marginal selection will be picked apart by someone. Even here, everyone is all over the place on Jack Morris.

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