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Thread: Crickets chirping

  1. #21
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zwiefz View Post
    People are talking about $10 million a year plus a draft pick for Drew. For 32 more points of batting average and 4 more homers than Florimon? I'll pass.
    It has more to do with Drew's 111 OPS+ versus Florimon's 70 OPS+.

    Batting average and homers tell only part of the story of those two players. Last year, Drew was 11% better than league average (which is very good from the SS position) while Pedro Florimon was 30% worse than league average with the bat.

    That's an enormous difference.

    Really, batting average and homeruns mean very little in a vacuum unless the numbers are absurdly high or low.

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    It has been crickets everywhere the past month or so in the FA market. The entire SP market is being held up by Tanaka, and to a lesser extend the hitting market as well. The minute he signs the 5-6 legit contending teams that didn't land him will go after the next best SP's and the bats that cost 45 mil+
    IMO getting out in front of the offseason instead of waiting will prove to be the wiser choice, even if they had to settle for 2nd tier talents.

    Still would love to see them make a run at Ubaldo or Santana after the market gets going again though (if not Tanaka).

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    It has more to do with Drew's 111 OPS+ versus Florimon's 70 OPS+.

    Batting average and homers tell only part of the story of those two players. Last year, Drew was 11% better than league average (which is very good from the SS position) while Pedro Florimon was 30% worse than league average with the bat.

    That's an enormous difference.

    Really, batting average and homeruns mean very little in a vacuum unless the numbers are absurdly high or low.
    And what it tells us, is that there is a very good chance that Florimons HR count of 9 last year was pretty damn flukey to begin with. Florimon simply is not an every day major league player, he will never hit enough to be one.

  4. #24
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    IMO getting out in front of the offseason instead of waiting will prove to be the wiser choice, even if they had to settle for 2nd tier talents.

    Still would love to see them make a run at Ubaldo or Santana after the market gets going again though (if not Tanaka).
    Agreed, I think they ended up getting Nolasco and Hughes on pretty damn good deals. Reports also had them aggressive on some bats early on as well, they offered AJ two years but he choose to take a one year deal for a contender (Boston) and they were in on Salty but came up short. Obviously coming up a bit short doesn't help the team now or in the future, but it is a sign of encouragement that they were being aggressive so early on. I am sure they have other offers out to players currently as well, however they aren't simply going to overpay just to overpay. Realistically as I have stated a few times, they only positions that make sense improving over the course of the next 2-3 years are SS, C and maybe a corner OF spot. Nobody is really left at C, so the Twins will roll the dice with Pinto/Suzuki at this point. SS has Drew, who is a damn fine overall player and would be a very nice upgrade over everyone else they have tossed out to man the position over the past few years.

    There are plenty of LF/RF on the market every year, at this point I think the best bet is to roll with Willingham to start the year in one of the spots and Arcia in the other.

  5. #25
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    I'm satisfied mainly because I believe its another step in returning the Twins to long term success. Their farm system is short on starting pitching so they went outside their box to fix that for the near term. I don't see much in position player moves, just because there isn't much out there. I think their offense will be a little better just from player improvement and better health. I think the real activity is going to place in July when I anticipate that Willingham, Correia and Burton will all be moved.

  6. #26
    Twins Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
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    Last edited by twinsnorth49; 01-13-2014 at 01:06 PM.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Linus View Post
    I'm satisfied mainly because I believe its another step in returning the Twins to long term success. Their farm system is short on starting pitching so they went outside their box to fix that for the near term. I don't see much in position player moves, just because there isn't much out there. I think their offense will be a little better just from player improvement and better health. I think the real activity is going to place in July when I anticipate that Willingham, Correia and Burton will all be moved.
    It seems like we exceeded most peoples expectations because they were very low.

    It is refreshing to see a long term commitment in a pitcher or two, but this team will likely open the year with a payroll $30M lower than in 2010. A year from now we could see payroll drop further as Willingham and Correa will be off the books and we have a ton of rookies coming up. My verdict is this offseason also exceeded my expectations, but that was a very low hurdle. More should be done and it is clear the objective is to make money first and win second.

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  9. #28
    The lack of position player free agent signings for the Twins is linked to the prospects coming up in the system. They can't really entice a free agent third baseman to sign while Sano is expected to come up in the next year or two. Second base appears to be filled at least for the next year based on Dozier's good second half last year. The outfield appears to be have too many players competing for too few spots, with several prospects working their way up through the minors. First base is filled until Mauer is gone. Catcher was addressed. The only position really open with no prospects coming up appears to be shortstop.

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  11. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    They have both exceeded my expectations and left me disappointed.

    They spent more than I thought they would, but still look like a 90 loss team with lots of money left in their pocket.
    Spot on hit the nail right on the head. They hide behind "we're not gonna spend just to spend", then conveniently put it in their pockets. Guess what? This is minnesota. You have to overpay to attract free agents. And as I stated, they aren't anywhere near their 50-52%. Its all profit, baby.

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  13. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    Spot on hit the nail right on the head. They hide behind "we're not gonna spend just to spend", then conveniently put it in their pockets. Guess what? This is minnesota. You have to overpay to attract free agents. And as I stated, they aren't anywhere near their 50-52%. Its all profit, baby.
    What free agents are you thinking they should go after?

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  15. #31
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    Originally Posted by zwiefz People are talking about $10 million a year plus a draft pick for Drew. For 32 more points of batting average and 4 more homers than Florimon? I'll pass.



    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    It has more to do with Drew's 111 OPS+ versus Florimon's 70 OPS+.

    Batting average and homers tell only part of the story of those two players. Last year, Drew was 11% better than league average (which is very good from the SS position) while Pedro Florimon was 30% worse than league average with the bat.

    That's an enormous difference.

    Really, batting average and homeruns mean very little in a vacuum unless the numbers are absurdly high or low.
    I thought this topic had been settled and put to bed.....ie, the 20X cost for Drew relative to Florimon using WAR is easily justified and as someone noted above, the fluky nature of Florimon's 2013 SLG overestimates his future plate value. Sure, Drew @ 111 OPS+ is 11% better than league average, but the qualitative difference between Drew and Florimon must be put into better perspective..... that 11% number is actually 22% ABOVE SS league average.....while Florimon is 23% BELOW SS league average.

    To further illustrate the numbers:

    MLB average for SS: .681 OPS 91 OPS+
    Stephen Drew 2013: .777 OPS 111OPS+
    Pedro Florimon 2013: .611 OPS 70 OPS+

    Red Sox 2013 SS production: 1st in AL in OPS/wOBA/wRC+
    (Stephen Drew topped out above each stat of his team total production #s).

    MN Twns 2013 SS production: 11th in AL in OPS/wOBA/wRC+
    (By contrast, Florimon underperformed his team averages in each stat).

    And then when you look at Drew's LHB split of .876 OPS/136 OPS+, you have someone that, properly deployed and exploited, can add a sorely needed run-producing weapon to what currently looks like a downgraded offense over 2013's already anemic output.

    Signing Drew spends clearly available money that clearly upgrades the team this year, it isn't "spending just to spend" as it does nothing to obstruct the rebuild plan for the longer term. You add one more legitimate bat at DH and a Garza-level starting pitcher, you suddenly become relevant AS the prospects settle into the lineup, rather than hoping WHEN they settle into the lineup.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-13-2014 at 03:40 PM.

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  17. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by brvama View Post
    What free agents are you thinking they should go after?
    I would like to add that the Twins could take on salary via trade as well.

    I think we could have added a DH that would have helped our lineup (in addition to SS). I could care less that we have Parmalee and Colabello. Or we could have signed a corner OF and pushed Willlingham to DH and improved on both sides of the ball.

  18. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    Spot on hit the nail right on the head. They hide behind "we're not gonna spend just to spend", then conveniently put it in their pockets. Guess what? This is minnesota. You have to overpay to attract free agents. And as I stated, they aren't anywhere near their 50-52%. Its all profit, baby.
    I just looked up historical payroll info and I wish I hadn't. In 2006, the Twins had a payroll of $63M and were 19th in the league.

    If we have an $80M payroll next year, we would be 22nd based on last years ranking. Why exactly did we get a stadium? We have not even kept up with the league.

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...-day-payrolls/

    http://deadspin.com/2013-payrolls-an...team-462765594

  19. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I just looked up historical payroll info and I wish I hadn't. In 2006, the Twins had a payroll of $63M and were 19th in the league.

    If we have an $80M payroll next year, we would be 22nd based on last years ranking. Why exactly did we get a stadium? We have not even kept up with the league.

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...-day-payrolls/

    http://deadspin.com/2013-payrolls-an...team-462765594
    Good find. Just to pile on, while I am pleasantly surprised that the Twins decided not to cut payroll again as I expected, they currently stand at about the same payroll as last season, meaning that the $25M infusion of media money will go straight to the fiscal year bottom line- never to be seen again in productive use to improve the product.... or to early pay down of the stadium debt.... with a similar result.

    As I have posted before, while they addressed a glaring and embarassing need, the rest of their "plan" for 2014 appears to be hosting the All Star game and marketing nostalgia, by signing and publicly pursuing past Twins from better times (Kubel, Bartlett, AJ, Garza, Santana), in the hopes of erasing TD threads like: "Worst Starting Lineup Ever?" or never-before-heard-of articles like this in the StarTribune just before last year's All Star Game: "Yankees turn Gardy's Twins into the worst team ever -- Really". Note to TR, just get better players, that, you know, you said would be possible to do with a new stadium.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-13-2014 at 04:15 PM.

  20. #35
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    To me, signing Drew is a no-brainer. SS is just about the hardest position to upgrade and the pipeline of internal/development candidates is very thin. Getting a comparable upgrade via trade will have a material cost in prospects. Drew provides offensive improvement, solid enough defence, requires only a 2-3 year commitment and is available for the one thing the Twins have in abundance (cash).

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  22. #36
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    The presence of Drew (or not) will have no appreciable difference in how the Twins finish in the 2014 standings pure and simple.
    Last edited by twinsnorth49; 01-13-2014 at 04:56 PM.

  23. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    The presence of Drew (or not) will have no appreciable difference in how the Twins finish in the 2014 standings pure and simple, how many times do we have to go over that premise?

    I think everyone agrees with your premise, in the upgrade by itself- in a vacuum. But nature, baseball players, agents and fans abhor a vacuum. And we aren't just talking about the 2014 standings. By signing Drew and upgrading the Rotation (all of which cost you nothing in terms of giving up talent or holding back prospects), you give further incentive for someone like Garza and other quality FAs to consider the Twins' offers more seriously as a viable franchise moving in the right direction longer-term.

    Please recall the premise from the opposite viewpoint: incremental upgrades at a position player or two, a significant upgrade in the rotation, combined with positive regressions to the mean from selected players coming off down years, PLUS throw in a rookie, or two, or three getting called up and making an impact, can mean that you now have added enough Wins/Player for a team that can become at the least, a fringe contender. And if not 2014, you build the momentum toward even more quality upgrades going into 2015 to go along with the prospects coming online.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-13-2014 at 05:19 PM.

  24. #38
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    I don't want to rehash the Drew debate, but let's suppose Drew is signed. That's likely to come in at around $10 mln from what I have gathered. That still leaves another $15 mln available. If the goal is to invest in team personnel, again, who else should they be pursuing?

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  26. #39
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    Certainly if Garza was the target, that would sure take care of the $15.

  27. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by brvama View Post
    Certainly if Garza was the target, that would sure take care of the $15.
    And that would still put you around/below the 50-52% threshold, and still leave the $25M media money available for current use. Plus, by signing Garza, Correia would almost certainly be traded reducing that cost by $5.5M, with Willingham, Burton and Suzuki, Plouffe likely coming off the books before 2015 (~$17M).
    Last edited by jokin; 01-13-2014 at 05:32 PM.

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