Page 5 of 6 FirstFirst ... 3456 LastLast
Results 81 to 100 of 114

Thread: Crickets chirping

  1. #81
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    472
    Like
    30
    Liked 99 Times in 74 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe A. Preusser View Post
    How much did this business pay in state income taxes for every bloated salary that played a game for or against it's team? How much did this business increase the revenue of the businesses miles around it? How much pure enjoyment did this business bring to millions of fans?
    I am a huge Twins fan. I watch them almost every day and make it to the ballpark 5-10 times a year. But as a fan it is hard not to feel like a sucker.

    The Twins consistently let good players walk via free agency or trade. The culprit was always the Metrodome. If you give us a stadium, we could keep guys, sign free agents, and compete. That was the mantra.

    The Pohladís got their stadium. They put up $130 million dollars and we put up $390 million dollars in the form of sales taxes. The value of the team, according to Forbes went from $216 million in 2006 to $578 million in 2013. By my calculation, the Pohladís did not really put up any money because the increase in team value ($362 million) vastly exceeded what they put up ($130 million).

    So the statement about nothing wrong with a business making money does not really apply in my view, as 3M, Medtronic, etc. are not funded with tax-payer money. Do these companies get tax savings when they build an office? Yes, but I assure you the state is not building them the office for free, not even close. And those benefits are tied to actual results, like number of emlpoyees that make $50k or more, etc.

    The other argument that does not apply is ďTarget field helps the tax base and economyĒ. Of course it does, but I assure you those profit seeking businesses I mentioned above could cause more damage to the local economy if they left town and took their 20,000 jobs with them. Taxes, home values, etc. would be in a much worse position than if the Twins left.

    Circling back here to the Twins payroll, given the facts above, I would like to see the Twins go out and sign Drew and potentially a DH (or trade for one). They have money to spend and these signings would help the team and not block any of our top prospects. Paying $400K for Pedro Florimon to hit .200 with an OPS just in the 6ís is embarrassing. Like I said in another post, the Twins payroll was 19th in 2006, if we have an $80M payroll this year we will be 22nd. We have lagged the league even with the stadium. Promises were broken and we have been fleeced.

    http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/33/330400.html


    http://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/

  2. This user likes tobi0040's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    adjacent (01-15-2014)

  3. #82
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    4,602
    Like
    495
    Liked 214 Times in 147 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Except that there's really not a lot of good players. That's the point others are making.

    "they should not spend more because we aren't close to winning"
    "they should not spend money because in 3 years there might be a SS ready"
    "they should not spend money because the player is not "worth it"" even though he is better than what they have...

    Neither of those is about who is available, are they? They are about money, and whether or not the money is worth is, or about prospects that don't exist or are years away. Maybe I'm reading peopel wrong, but I don't care if a player is worth the money, if that contract does not keep them from signing another player or block a player that is less than a year away. Not sure why anyone else cares if the contracts are good or not, frankly.
    Lighten up Francis....

  4. This user likes mike wants wins's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    jokin (01-15-2014)

  5. #83
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    155
    Like
    6
    Liked 9 Times in 7 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    potentially a DH
    Jason Kubel

  6. #84
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    118
    Like
    19
    Liked 10 Times in 8 Posts
    People who are thrifty bargain basement shoppers don't turn over a new leaf because all of a sudden they have money to spend. My 84 year old mother who grew up during the depression just sold her house for $100,000, her out of pocket expenses per month are < $500, she'll never spend all her money, yet she'll run across town to the second grocery store to save 49 cents on soap. And it makes her happy to do it.

    Just because Terry Ryan has more money to spend doesn't mean he will, or should, spend it. He's always looked for good value and always will. If he doesn't think its a good baseball decision hes not going to spend the money. I'm ok with that. Throwing millions at a marginal upgrade player is not the way to build a longterm stable franchise.

    Maybe, just maybe, in 2015 he'll overspend to bring in an extra player or two to get the Twins over the hump - and he can justify it by the money he didn't spend in 2014.

  7. #85
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    472
    Like
    30
    Liked 99 Times in 74 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    The presence of Drew (or not) will have no appreciable difference in how the Twins finish in the 2014 standings pure and simple.
    Here are their career numbers:

    Drew .264 avg, .329 OBP. A year with 550 AB will roughly yield 145 hits, 30 2B, 9 3B, 13 HR, 49 BB

    Floriomon .219 avg, .278 OBP, 550 AB will yield roughly 120 hits, 23 2B, 2 3B, and 10 HR, 44 BB

    I am confused how 25 hits, getting on base another 30 times, and 17 more extra base hits does not win more games.

  8. #86
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    6,674
    Like
    32
    Liked 741 Times in 414 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Here are their career numbers:

    Drew .264 avg, .329 OBP. A year with 550 AB will roughly yield 145 hits, 30 2B, 9 3B, 13 HR, 49 BB

    Floriomon .219 avg, .278 OBP, 550 AB will yield roughly 120 hits, 23 2B, 2 3B, and 10 HR, 44 BB

    I am confused how 25 hits, getting on base another 30 times, and 17 more extra base hits does not win more games.
    It absolutely wins more games. It accounts for 2-3 wins a season, which is right where WAR pegs Drew over Florimon.

    Amazing how things tend to work out that way.

  9. #87
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    472
    Like
    30
    Liked 99 Times in 74 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    It absolutely wins more games. It accounts for 2-3 wins a season, which is right where WAR pegs Drew over Florimon.

    Amazing how things tend to work out that way.
    Exactly. So the issue is, would the Twins rather have an $80M payroll and 3 fewer wins, or an $87M payroll with 3 more wins? I think they would rather pocket the money. I hope I am wrong.

  10. #88
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    6,674
    Like
    32
    Liked 741 Times in 414 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Exactly. So the issue is, would the Twins rather have an $80M payroll and 3 fewer wins, or an $87M payroll with 3 more wins? I think they would rather pocket the money. I hope I am wrong.
    Well, I think it's not quite *that* cut and dry. Drew has concerns surrounding him. He hasn't proven to be very durable. He has some ugly splits. He costs a draft pick (though I'm not terribly concerned with that, as it's a second round pick for the Twins).

    If the Twins like Drew as a player, money shouldn't be a hurdle. If they don't like Drew as a player, then signing him is a bad idea.

    And really, none of us have any idea of what they think of Drew as a player on a three year deal. I happen to think he's an acceptable risk because Florimon is bad at baseball and the Twins are unlikely to find anyone internally who can competently man the shortstop position. But it's not really a clear-cut case of "they HAVE to sign him".

  11. #89
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
    Posts
    1,815
    Like
    128
    Liked 274 Times in 178 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    The real value of Drew is not this year. He might push their 82-win season to 85. Still, they don't make the playoffs, and likely slip at least two slots in the draft.

    The real value of Drew is next year and the year after. The difference between 90 and 92 wins could mean the difference between going to the postseason or not.

    The question should not be how much better is he than Florimon? but how much better will he be than Santana? I don't think it's 2 wins. I think Santana will be at least a win above replacement. I'm not sure Drew at his age will continue to be above 2 WAR over the life of his contract. Now you're talking really thin margins for your investment.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  12. This user likes cmathewson's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    Reider (01-16-2014)

  13. #90
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    212
    Like
    0
    Liked 33 Times in 25 Posts
    After reading all of the Florimon vs. Drew stuff plus "between the lines" suppositions I still think Bartlett and/or Santana will be just fine at shortstop until a much better player than any of these four winding up on the roster in 2015 or 2016.

  14. #91
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    846
    Like
    9
    Liked 44 Times in 27 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Except that you put an almost entirely positive spin on your projections. How often does everything go right?

    The number of "ifs" in your projection are precisely the problem. When you have that many question marks, it's fairly likely that a decent percentage of them will not be answered with a surprise positive outcome.
    Your point is absolutely right if you're looking at the 26-27 upside. I think the 17 out there with Steamer right now is too low -- Mauer (falsely low on defense at 1B, come on), Willingham (can't see he played injured), and Dozier (even if the league adjusts, I don't think he'll regress that far) specifically. I'm taking the over on 17, what about you?

  15. #92
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,064
    Like
    97
    Liked 338 Times in 192 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Your point is absolutely right if you're looking at the 26-27 upside. I think the 17 out there with Steamer right now is too low -- Mauer (falsely low on defense at 1B, come on), Willingham (can't see he played injured), and Dozier (even if the league adjusts, I don't think he'll regress that far) specifically. I'm taking the over on 17, what about you?
    I'd probably look at a push. I think give or take that's about right.

  16. #93
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    846
    Like
    9
    Liked 44 Times in 27 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I'd probably look at a push. I think give or take that's about right.
    If you use the exact same playing time distribution that FG is using and simply use Oliver instead of Steamer, you end up with 19.7. That's a pretty significant difference. You're welcome to take 17, but 20 feels a little closer to me. It doesn't take much going right from there to reach the 22 that I originally mentioned.
    Last edited by jay; 01-15-2014 at 08:29 PM. Reason: typo

  17. #94
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    846
    Like
    9
    Liked 44 Times in 27 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    The real value of Drew is not this year. He might push their 82-win season to 85. Still, they don't make the playoffs, and likely slip at least two slots in the draft.

    The real value of Drew is next year and the year after. The difference between 90 and 92 wins could mean the difference between going to the postseason or not.
    This is spot on. I'd be happy to see the Twins sign Drew. It would feel good to fix it NOW and keep money out of Pohlad's pocket at the same time. I'm just not convinced we can't get to that same conclusion when it counts by getting one of the guys that will be available next year if still needed without committing years and dollars to Drew today. Considering Drew's shortfalls, it might even be the better option.

  18. #95
    Senior Member MVP
    Posts
    5,097
    Like
    367
    Liked 324 Times in 214 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    That's certainly possible, but definitely not as written in stone as you're making it out to be. As I'm sure you know (and may even be referencing), FG introduced a new feature that provides depth charts and projections for 2014 using Steamer. The Twins are projected to pick up 17.1 WAR from their non-pitchers which, as you mentioned (cited?), would be bottom quintile.

    Go through it position by position though and tell me there isn't significantly more upside than downside:
    C - 3.0 WAR, feels about right
    1B - Mauer projected for only 3 WAR with a lower wOBA than we've seen from him in a longgg time and a lot of negative defensive value. Look at Oliver... 2.3 WAR higher based on basically just defensive value. Mauer could be +2 WAR above the Steamer projection very easily, +3 with a good year.
    2B - Dozier projected for just 1.3 WAR after putting up 2.8 last year, including his dismal start. Again, Oliver disagrees significantly here pegging him to match last year (still including that start). He can easily be +1.5 here by only matching all of last year, as high as +2.5 if he maintains his June-Sept pace from this year when we saw his mechanics and plate discipline change.
    SS - Still no bat value, but Florimon brings the D. Steamer has him regressing there while Oliver doesn't. Very easy to be +.5 here, +1 with even the slightest offensive improvement at all.
    3B - Relatively upbeat on Plouffe, but keep Sano in mind here and the possibility of what he could bring relatively early on.
    LF - If Hammer is healthy, these projections have to be his floor. Their models can't tell that he played injured last year. They see an aging slugger who declined badly last year. Wouldn't be tough to be +1 here, +1.5 if he rebounds a bit more than I think he will.
    CF - Presley projects decently from what we've seen. Can't ignore chance of Hicks breaking out or even Buxton coming up later in the year.
    RF - Arcia also projects out decently, but plenty of room for him to blossom beyond those numbers as well.
    DH - Kubel gets zero love here. Twins can easily pick up .5 here, +1 if Kubel shows up.

    So, extremely easy to see the Twins closer to 22 WAR on offense with upside for even as much as 26-27. 22 would put them right at league average. I don't think we're as bad off as you're making it sound. If 17 and bottom quintile is the over/under, I'm betting heavy on the over.
    The problem with your excellent analysis- on which we both can agree is in the realm of the possible- is that so much is based on hope and defiance of the probable. All the teams that finished below them on offense, in the AL at least, with the exception of the Astros, have significantly upgraded their offense. The Twins are hoping that Kubel somehow ressurrects himself to his 2012 form, and that's it, thus far, that is their only outside "upgrade", and Kubel's contact % and K% have completely imploded over the last 3 years.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-15-2014 at 11:35 PM.

  19. #96
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Highabove's Avatar
    Posts
    563
    Like
    13
    Liked 10 Times in 9 Posts
    Unspent payroll money is not carried over from one season to the next. It's not saved for a rainy day. The Twins have stated that yearly payroll is determined by the projected revenue for the upcoming season. This years unspent money will ether go to a player(s) contract or Mr. Pohlad's pocket. Which should it be??

  20. #97
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    846
    Like
    9
    Liked 44 Times in 27 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    The problem with your excellent analysis- on which we both can agree is in the realm of the possible- is that so much is based on hope and defiance of the probabilities. All the teams that finished below them on offense, in the AL at least, with the exception of the Astros, have significantly upgraded their offense. The Twins are hoping that Kubel resurrets himself to his 2012 form, and that's it, thus far, that is their only "upgrade".
    First, thanks. As I tried to illustrate, I really don't think 20-22 WAR is anywhere near all rosy and statistically defiant. However, even at that number, the offense is average at best and still needs help. Unfortunately, I think it's more likely to come from within or via trade.

    The 2014 projections show some big changes compared to 2013's totals... very commonly not due to big FA signings. I think we're seeing some regression in both directions in the following numbers, but it doesn't really fit your argument that everyone is better except the Twins and Astros. The projections do mostly ignore the biggest wildcard of all -- injuries.

    2014 WAR Projection for Batters (FG) subtracted by 2013 WAR Actuals for Batters --
    AL Upgrades: Angels (+4), Royals (+3), Indians (+5), Rangers (+1), Blue Jays (+8), Yankees (+8), Twins (+8), Mariners (+16!), White Sox (+9), Astros (+17!)
    AL Downgrades: Red Sox (-10), Rays (-2), A's (-1), Orioles (-5), Tigers (-3)

    Drew, Morales, and Cruz are really the last 3 FAs that could change a team's numbers much at all. For the Twins, Cruz and Morales would be something like overpriced, 1-win upgrades -- no thanks. Drew is projected as the exact same level of an upgrade. You have to get in to "hope and defiance" territory to see him as more.

  21. #98
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,064
    Like
    97
    Liked 338 Times in 192 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    If you use the exact same playing time distribution that FG is using and simply use Oliver instead of Steamer, you end up with 19.7. That's a pretty significant difference. You're welcome to take 17, but 20 feels a little closer to me. It doesn't take much going right from there to reach the 22 that I originally mentioned.
    If you've noticed, you have slid back with every post.

  22. #99
    Super Moderator All-Star
    Posts
    3,394
    Like
    160
    Liked 301 Times in 179 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    "they should not spend more because we aren't close to winning"
    "they should not spend money because in 3 years there might be a SS ready"
    "they should not spend money because the player is not "worth it"" even though he is better than what they have...

    Neither of those is about who is available, are they? They are about money, and whether or not the money is worth is, or about prospects that don't exist or are years away. Maybe I'm reading peopel wrong, but I don't care if a player is worth the money, if that contract does not keep them from signing another player or block a player that is less than a year away. Not sure why anyone else cares if the contracts are good or not, frankly.
    You'll care when you are getting replacement level production for millions of dollars with an untradeable contract. We've all heard that complaint before.

    But that said, the "who is available" is a pretty big problem here. Sure, they could give me 5M dollars to play SS for them on a 1 year deal. I'd gladly take it, and I'd be booed out of the stadium on during spring training. The bottom line is that there has to be something good available worth committing that kind of money too, and the long term viability of that contract is something they need to strongly consider as well. The guys we are talking about won't be signing one year deals, and I don't think it's unreasonable to target guys that they think will fulfill the value of that contract.

    At the end of the day, this is still a business, whether or not you or I like it. I'm not going to disagree with you in that the lack of spending by the Twins has been maddeningly frustrating at times, but this offseason, they seem to have put that to bed. They went and got two good pitchers and resigned a 3rd guy. They've added depth at C and grabbed lottery tickets in Bartlett and Kubel. They are making moves that most of us recognize need to be made. What the overall payroll looks like when that is done is hardly the reason to condemn them.

  23. These 4 users like diehardtwinsfan's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    Blackjack (01-16-2014), Brock Beauchamp (01-16-2014), ChiTownTwinsFan (01-16-2014), goulik (01-16-2014)

  24. #100
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,112
    Like
    3
    Liked 167 Times in 98 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Blackjack View Post
    People who are thrifty bargain basement shoppers don't turn over a new leaf because all of a sudden they have money to spend. My 84 year old mother who grew up during the depression just sold her house for $100,000, her out of pocket expenses per month are < $500, she'll never spend all her money, yet she'll run across town to the second grocery store to save 49 cents on soap.
    Don't tease us -- tell us the store! Or are you trying to keep this amazing soap deal to yourself?

Page 5 of 6 FirstFirst ... 3456 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.