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Thread: Crickets chirping

  1. #101
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    82 wins

    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    The real value of Drew is not this year. He might push their 82-win season to 85. Still, they don't make the playoffs, and likely slip at least two slots in the draft.

    The real value of Drew is next year and the year after. The difference between 90 and 92 wins could mean the difference between going to the postseason or not.

    The question should not be how much better is he than Florimon? but how much better will he be than Santana? I don't think it's 2 wins. I think Santana will be at least a win above replacement. I'm not sure Drew at his age will continue to be above 2 WAR over the life of his contract. Now you're talking really thin margins for your investment.
    The Twins in 2013 scored 614 runs and allowed 788. I don't know with this offense and Morneau traded last Sept. that their offense is going score more runs at the same time the new FA SP signed give up less runs to get to .500.

    Bullpens could spring a leak as well. Everything would have to come into alignment in order to get to .500.

  2. #102
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    here is my prediction for 5 remaining offseason moves:
    1) Mark Reynolds- gets announced tomorrow- 1 year/$3 million + incentives
    2) Suk-Min Yoon- 3yr/$8 per
    3) Johan to a minor league contract with mucho incentives
    4) Corriea moved before ST- salary dump and B level prospect
    5) Swarzak starts season in SR, Worley in long relief, Deduno on DL and we left it tride with Diamond

  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by thetank View Post
    The Twins in 2013 scored 614 runs and allowed 788. I don't know with this offense and Morneau traded last Sept. that their offense is going score more runs at the same time the new FA SP signed give up less runs to get to .500.

    Bullpens could spring a leak as well. Everything would have to come into alignment in order to get to .500.
    I agree with this. You can paint a real rosy picture and still not get these runs scored and allowed to even.

    For example, if you get 200 IP from Nolasco, 160 from Hughes, 120 from Meyer, and 175 from Pelfrey and they average out to a 4.25 ERA, you only cut 72 runs allowed out (versus the starter ERA of 5.25 last year). Now you have scored 614 runs and allowed 716.

    We can probably expect better play out of CF and if Sano comes up in June and is healthy, more production out of 3B. Potentially better output out of Willingham and the DH rule if Kubel bounces back, but it is hard to close the 100 run gap with the lack of moves we had made on the offense. If we close that gap, we are a .500 team.

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfanstl View Post
    here is my prediction for 5 remaining offseason moves:
    1) Mark Reynolds- gets announced tomorrow- 1 year/$3 million + incentives
    2) Suk-Min Yoon- 3yr/$8 per
    3) Johan to a minor league contract with mucho incentives
    4) Corriea moved before ST- salary dump and B level prospect
    5) Swarzak starts season in SR, Worley in long relief, Deduno on DL and we left it tride with Diamond
    It is unfortunate we have been linked to Reynolds and I would hate to see that signing.

    You can pencil him in for .230, 20-25 HR, and 180-220K. He will K about 3 x as much as BB. And he grades out as a poor defensive 3B. I see very little upgrade over Plouffe, if any and Sano could be here out of spring training or in June.

  5. #105
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thetank View Post
    The Twins in 2013 scored 614 runs and allowed 788. I don't know with this offense and Morneau traded last Sept. that their offense is going score more runs at the same time the new FA SP signed give up less runs to get to .500.

    Bullpens could spring a leak as well. Everything would have to come into alignment in order to get to .500.
    If you haven't noticed, Morneau was a 0 WAR player last year. He hasn't put up a 1+ WAR since 2010. The thought is, moving Mauer to first will enhance his offense. It should Even if he stays steady state, a Pinto/Suzuki platoon should produce more WAR than Morneau.

    The other thing is regression to the mean for several of Twins payers. Willingham, Plouffe, whoever occupies CF, and hte RF position with Arcia, all will likely have better years than last year. So I expect at least 50 more runs out of this offense.

    Of course, when you go from -0.2 WAR (Worley) to 3.0 WAR (Nolasco) and -0.2 (Diamond) to 1.3 WAR (Hughes), you substantially reduce the number of runs allowed. That's how you get to 82 wins.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  6. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    It is unfortunate we have been linked to Reynolds and I would hate to see that signing.

    You can pencil him in for .230, 20-25 HR, and 180-220K. He will K about 3 x as much as BB. And he grades out as a poor defensive 3B. I see very little upgrade over Plouffe, if any and Sano could be here out of spring training or in June.
    Sano won't be playing opening day. It would be foolish, and I can't see it happening. I think Reynolds is a fine low dollar signing. Yeah, his defense is brutal, but at least provides some "push" to Plouffe, additionally you can platoon him at DH with Kubel. I don't really mind the strike outs, the guy still has put up some pretty nice numbers (127, 97, 117, 116, 96) OPS+ the last five years, and he has legit power. You could do worse for a back up 3B/1B platoon DH/PH.

  7. #107
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Sano won't be playing opening day. It would be foolish, and I can't see it happening. I think Reynolds is a fine low dollar signing. Yeah, his defense is brutal, but at least provides some "push" to Plouffe, additionally you can platoon him at DH with Kubel. I don't really mind the strike outs, the guy still has put up some pretty nice numbers (127, 97, 117, 116, 96) OPS+ the last five years, and he has legit power. You could do worse for a back up 3B/1B platoon DH/PH.
    I think the Twins are more likely to scoop on Vernon Wells than Mark Reynolds. Wells could play LF against lefties, with Willingham moving to DH. He could also spell Arcia. He'd be no more than an emergency center fielder, but he'd be a better fit. Reynolds does nothing at third or the outfield and you really don't need a back-up at first much.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  8. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    If you haven't noticed, Morneau was a 0 WAR player last year. He hasn't put up a 1+ WAR since 2010. The thought is, moving Mauer to first will enhance his offense. It should Even if he stays steady state, a Pinto/Suzuki platoon should produce more WAR than Morneau.

    The other thing is regression to the mean for several of Twins payers. Willingham, Plouffe, whoever occupies CF, and hte RF position with Arcia, all will likely have better years than last year. So I expect at least 50 more runs out of this offense.

    Of course, when you go from -0.2 WAR (Worley) to 3.0 WAR (Nolasco) and -0.2 (Diamond) to 1.3 WAR (Hughes), you substantially reduce the number of runs allowed. That's how you get to 82 wins.
    Baseball-reference had Morneau's oWar at 1.8 when with the Twins in 2013. He was in a decline. Willingham isn't going back to the days of 35 HRs and 105 RBIs. Plouffe isn't likely to contribute much offensively. The only offensive player who excels is Mauer and he lost his HR power after signing a large contract.

  9. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfanstl View Post
    2) Suk-Min Yoon- 3yr/$8 per
    No chance in hell he gets $8M per year. I'm doubtful if he'll even get 2 years, $8M total.

  10. #110
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thetank View Post
    The only offensive player who excels is Mauer and he lost his HR power after signing a large contract.
    More like "he got lucky with a bunch of barely-over-the-wall homers one year and then moved to a stadium that crushed his power numbers".

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  12. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by S. View Post
    No chance in hell he gets $8M per year. I'm doubtful if he'll even get 2 years, $8M total.
    It depends on if a team views him as starting material or not... But yeah, I don't see him getting a 3/$24m deal.

  13. #112
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    Are the Twins changing their obstinate stance on Drew? It is Doogie, but still interesting.

    The Twins would take Stephen Drew and surrender that second round draft pick if he fell into the Twins lap, according to Wolfson. Wolfson threw out the numbers of 3-years and $30 million to when the Twins would bite.
    http://puckettspond.com/2014/01/16/m...ronson-arroyo/

  14. #113
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    You'll care when you are getting replacement level production for millions of dollars with an untradeable contract. We've all heard that complaint before.

    But that said, the "who is available" is a pretty big problem here. Sure, they could give me 5M dollars to play SS for them on a 1 year deal. I'd gladly take it, and I'd be booed out of the stadium on during spring training. The bottom line is that there has to be something good available worth committing that kind of money too, and the long term viability of that contract is something they need to strongly consider as well. The guys we are talking about won't be signing one year deals, and I don't think it's unreasonable to target guys that they think will fulfill the value of that contract.

    At the end of the day, this is still a business, whether or not you or I like it. I'm not going to disagree with you in that the lack of spending by the Twins has been maddeningly frustrating at times, but this offseason, they seem to have put that to bed. They went and got two good pitchers and resigned a 3rd guy. They've added depth at C and grabbed lottery tickets in Bartlett and Kubel. They are making moves that most of us recognize need to be made. What the overall payroll looks like when that is done is hardly the reason to condemn them.
    Nice post...but I disagree on several points:

    I prefer not to watch replacement level production no matter the cost. Whether they're paying $10m or $500k, it's still replacement level production and we end up watching 290 losses over three years.

    Some of us think "who is available" could be worth the investment, as they would improve the product above that replacement level. Drew, for example, seems to fit pretty well with where they need help and where they probably shouldn't expect to find it internally.

    I think there's room to question the Twins spending, even this offseason. They have simply reallocated to last year's level, which in neither case is aggressive given revenues and their own past statements.

    I may be in the minority, but I'm not very keen on watching 190 more losses over the next couple years while waiting for the minor leagues to provide every thing else this team needs.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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  16. #114
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    If you've noticed, you have slid back with every post.
    No, I said 22 originally with upside as high as 26-27 if you want to get rosy. I referenced the difference between Steamer and Oliver saying the 20 that Oliver predicts feels closer to what I think will happen than 17. I'm still at 22...

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