Apple would immediately be the Twins top pitching prospect. He projects as a number two starter. How is that not worth taking, given this staff? He is also pretty close to MLB ready. Passing on him would not make sense.
The Twins also had Boras clients Kyle Lohse and Carlos Gomez but both were traded for as prospects not drafted. Additionally, both were traded again before the Twins had to worry about serious arbitration and free agency. Unless the Twins start matching payroll with the big clubs, they'll probably spend their money more wisely than on a Boras client asking for 2x market value.
If the BPA is another toolsy outfielder and your gm will not trade prospects for major league players, where do you ever get pitching? Oh, and he will not sign elite free agents either....
NTM you can find arms outside of the first round.
You can find monster outfielders outside the first round too. Where will the pitching come from if you pass on it at the top of the draft? And this isn't about next year.
Why is it a mistake? BPA is just one philosophy. For me, if there is little difference, the should err on the pitching or middle infield side. If there is a medium difference, probably still err on the pitching side. if Bryce Harper is there, they should take him. But other than that, the discrepancy in ranking would need to be huge to continue passing on arms with high floors and very good ceilings.
I realize the Twins have 1 arm in their entire minor league system that has any experience as a starter that profiles as a number 2. ONE arm. I also realize that Buxton could bust, as could any of those arms. But, it is more likely Buxton busts (HS player from a small town), than a college pitcher that has succeeded against top teams. Sure, Buxton's ceiling is higher, but the Twins have ONE arm in their entire system that currently profiles to even be a number 2, maybe even only 1 that profiles as a number 3 (JO is just too young, against too low a group of opponents to know anything at this point). I also realize that a team needs 5-7 starters and 5-10 relievers a year, and the Twins don't have anywhere near that. I also realize this GM will not trade prospects for legit MLB players, won't sign high priced players, and so far has shown a complete unwillingness to deal veterans for prospects this time around. So, I ask again, even in 3-5 years, where will the pitchers come from if you won't draft a college pitcher in round 1 unless he's Strasburg?
Take the BPA. Appel will have to sign for reasons noted above. Do not trust Boras, as he could be looking for a player to be a test court case on the major league draft. Twins seem to have done OK with sandwich pick pitching this year and next years second pick will be in that range as there will be less sandwich picks.
With Appel available at #3 next yr & he is again passed (no prob this yr), there will be a major fan revolt (of those of us that care).
Reading an article on Appel. He's talked with his Stanford coach about how he is too used next season (innings, pitch counts, actual pitch selection, etc) preparing him for the majors. Maybe that will help him from becoming the next college blowout.
Would Ryan/another GM consider Appel's Stanford season to be equal to a AA stint that he would have started the season off at and possibly pitch in majors next season??
Appel would be the smart pick, next year is considered weaker then this year. Now yes all of that can change, but Appel is the top guy, and closest to the majors right now. He will be a senior. If he chooses not to sign, the Twins would get the draft pick 1 pick later the following year, which will probably be deeper. I think the sign ability issue just isn't there.
Now thats not to say some guy comes out of nowhere next year and is better, yes that guy should be picked. But don't pick against Appel if he is the best available.
I have no problem with Appel being picked at #3/4 if he's the best available. I said the same last year. In fact I would consider it to be a bit of a steal since the Twins would have gotten Buxton (decidedly the BPA) AND Appel.
If you allow need, proximity to the majors and signability to be the most important factors in the draft you set yourself up to lose over the long term. It's also very difficult to time the needs of the MLB team in the draft since it usually takes 2-5 yrs for most picks to make the majors. 3 yrs ago the Twins had a very good rotation and quite a few good (but not ace) arms in the minors. Just take the BPA (in the draft and trades) and worry about where to play them in 2-5 yrs.
That only works if your gm is willing to trade his prospects....how big of a difference would there need to be to take a pitcher or not. Also, the Twins will have less picks next year. at some point, they need pitching.