09-04-2012, 04:03 PM #41
I think I might put Buxton down a little further. It'll be interesting to see what national evaluators think, but I'd much rather have the four other guys in the top five, just because they have less risk than Buxton. (But I'm not sure others really think like that.)
Also, THE DFC, I agree. I was trying to think of the last time I was this excited about the fruits of the minor league system. I think it might have been 2003, when Morneau was being called up and Mauer and Kubel were looking like future stars.
I just wish there weren't so many outfielders on the list. I continue to hope that the Twins work hard to keep Sano and Rosario in the infield.
09-04-2012, 04:10 PM #42
09-04-2012, 04:14 PM #43
09-04-2012, 04:35 PM #44
In about 2002 or so, the Twins had Mauer and Morneau in the top 10 of BA and I think Cuddyer was around 25. Restovich may have been Top 100 that year.
09-04-2012, 04:48 PM #45
BA's Top 100 prospect history: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today.../all-time.html
2002 - Mauer (7), Morneau (21), Cuddyer (27), Restovich (63), Johnson (85)
2003 - Mauer (4), Morneau (14), Cuddyer (17), Restovich (37),
2004 - Mauer (1), Morneau (16), Durbin (66), Moses (81), Crain (89)
2005 - Mauer (1), Kubel (17), Crain (63), Durbin (70),
2006 - Liriano (6), Kubel (58), Moses (75), Perkins (91), Swarzak (100)
2007 - Garza (21), Perkins (66), Slowey (71), Parmelee (94)
2008 - Guerra (35), Gomez (52), Blackburn (56)
2009 - Revere (59), Ramos (71)
2010 - Hicks (19), Ramos (58), Gibson (61), Sano (94)
2011 - Gibson (34), Hicks (45), Sano (60), Benson (100)
09-04-2012, 07:17 PM #46
This also goes to thinking of having no problem with a prospect like Sano spending the whole season at Beloit, but to then be more aggressive the following years (see for example Arcia last year). After one full season it makes sense to be more aggressive when called for.Papers...business papers.
09-05-2012, 12:52 AM #47
09-05-2012, 01:12 AM #48
Yeah things really got thin after 2007. Garza, Perkins and Slowey all graduated I think and Parmelee underperformed thus fell off.
BTW, thanks Seth for sharing this. Always interesting to see prospect lists from years ago. It shows how unpredictable prospects can be. However thats the fun of following them.
Lets assume the consensus top 5 in no particular order is Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Arcia and Hicks. If I was to travel 6 or 7 years into the future, and find out that 2 of these guys turned out to be productive/above average big league players, should I call that a success?
09-05-2012, 01:43 AM #49
09-05-2012, 12:10 PM #50
As John mentioned, it'll be interesting to compare around 05 when Morneau and Cuddyer were cutting their teeth in the big leagues and Mauer and Kubel were so highly regarded with Arcia and Hicks in the bigs and Sano, Rosario, Vargas, Buxton, Kepler and Harrison not far behind. I think the 05 group had the higher ceilings with more sure-fire answers, but this upcoming group certainly has more depth and potential upside. Let's hope we can keep Sano, Rosario and Harrison in the infield, as a few have mentioned.
Things would, of course, get really interesting if Berrios turns out to be a full-blown ace in the making. We'll see, but we all have to be very optimistic, albeit cautiously, after his showing in E-town this year.
09-05-2012, 06:54 PM #51
not to get back on topic, but Arcia should be 1 or 2 in the list right now. Results should be factored in here as well, and a guy like Buxton with lots of tools, shouldn't be rated higher than a guy like Hicks (very similar tools) who has produced results.
09-05-2012, 07:42 PM #52
09-05-2012, 08:27 PM #53
09-05-2012, 10:17 PM #54
Jim Callis: Fully recovered from elbow surgery that held him back in 2011, Arcia has looked terrific this year. He continues to show the potential for a solid bat with plus power, and he has made improvements in controlling the strike zone. He could be a solid regular, maybe more.
The ceilings for Sano, Buxton and Hicks all seem to have higher upside.
09-06-2012, 01:58 AM #55
Seems like the Twins have a glut of outfielders, that could help in trading for some pitching. Benson will probably start in Rochester, this is a make or break year for him. Could get back in the top 10 and make the major leagues at some time next year or fall of the map and off the front line prospect list.
Twins seem to start most of the top end propects from Elizebethon at Beloit and move them up if warrented. I am hoping the twins move several of the Beliot stars to New Britian. Fr Myers numbers seem to be off in the pitchers favor for most players.
09-06-2012, 02:13 AM #56
09-06-2012, 05:08 AM #57
On the other hand, the Twins should deal from a strength. Too many OFs: Arcia, Hicks, Kepler, Buxton, Benson etc (Revere, Parmelee, Sano/Harrison) equals a bottleneck. So the Twins should deal some. And the higher they deal the better the return. I would have zero problem is they deal Arcia or Hicks (but not both) for an equally rated SP prospect. Buxton cannot be traded, Kepler is about to shoot really high in value and Benson dropped. The Twins have to sell high. Point in case Angel Morales. Few seasons ago he was a top prospect, now... They missed the window of opportunity.-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
09-06-2012, 06:40 AM #58
09-06-2012, 08:42 AM #59
The MLB is not a Roto-league... having outstanding CF defensive skills AND plus base running ability counts (IMHO even more than plus hitting because they do not go through slumps). I am not saying Arcia is a terrible defender, but he is no better than an average corner outfielder and reports indicate that he is a below average runner (but not a base clogger).
All-in-all, this is a much better debate to have than 5(?) years ago when we were discussing whether Angel Morales' monster Appy League numbers would hold up despite his very high strikeout rate.
09-06-2012, 10:59 AM #60
Like the list, though I'd have Benson in there somewhere over Vargas. Ya, he put up some big numbers in a short sample, but he's a DH.
I also like the optimism about Sano sticking at 3B. I really really really hope that can happen, but I'd bet $$ he's in RF when he debuts with the Twins.Follow me on Twitter: @MNTwinsGUFS
Spring Training Regular since 2010.