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I think you are right about hicks, buxton, and sano. Hicks will probably be in the 40-60 range in my opinion. Rosario should also make it as should Arcia IMO. But I don't think both get in. We talk about these guys on an almost daily basis so we can become a little bias. Best case scenerio, all seven of the guys you mention make it. JO Berrios may need another solid year at Low A before these sites (magazines) start ranking him in the top 100. Kyle Gibson, imo, no shot. Too little of a sample size after coming back from an injury. He will never make the list because he may be in the Majors next year and lose his rookie status. Good article.
My best guess woudl be be Sano, Buxton, Hicks, Arcia and Berrios with Rosario getting an honorable metion. If Gibson does well in the AFL, he could too. But after all the rending of garments over the Twins farm system over the last two years, I think it'll be ranked as above average this year. That's a nice turnaround.
Players who made the list twice had considerably more success or more playing time than those that only made the list once. Restovich is the big example of one who didn't get much playing time.
If anything this sound indicate that inclusion in the BA top 100 prospect lists means absolutely nothing other that a nice status as a trade chip. Remember, the Twins were completing in '92. Wonder if they would have won a bit more before the strike that changed everything if they had traded a bunch of those "blue chip prospects" for some established players...Quote:
1992 – David McCarty (22), Pat Mahomes (25), Midre Cummings (33), Willie Banks (68), Alan Newman (96), Todd Ritchie (98)
Rosario was #46 and Arcia #64 on Sickel's midseason list so I think it's pretty likely that they'll make BA's overall list. Guys like Gibson, Berrios and Kepler are guys that should rank in the 75-150 range on lists so I wouldn't be surprised if they made some top 100 lists and just missed others.
The strike had nothing to do with '92 since it happened in '94 by which time the Twins were in freefall anyway. i think many have always thought that the twins should have been more aggressive going for it when they have had the chance but this is just the ultimate hindsight post. These prospect lists should serve as a reminder that prospects do bust all of the time and there is no reason to worry about where to play Revere, Arcia, Hicks, Buxton, kepler, Sano and anyone else that might end up in the OF. it's pretty likely that half of these guys are not MLB starters.Quote:
Originally Posted by thrylos98
Here is one of my gripes with some of those lists that are treated as holy grails:Quote:
Originally Posted by kab21
Wonder how many times has Sickel seen Rosario and Arcia play (either live or on TV?) And I am not picking on Sickel. Lot's of those lists are the results of bandwagon jumping from good and bad reviews. (Full disclosure: I saw Rosario about the equivalent of one game and Arcia for like 10 games or so.)
Shows how Tom Kelly & co. completely screwed up every top prospect they had in the 90s. He was horrendous with younger players & destroyed em.
Good thing the eventual early decade Twins revolted on him in 2000 & organization knew it was time to get rid of him....TK had highs & lows, but nobody wants to remember the lows
Revolted???Quote:
Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz
Destroyed Young players? Who developed the championship players from the minor league teams? Suddenly Kelly changes how he treats people? You are free to have an opinion but what player failed under Kelly and went on to be anything more than a role player? Hawkins, Trombley, Knoblach, and Hunter destroyed? Yah, right. Todd Walker, could not play defense and traded. He did not produce. Willie Banks did not make it because of his own skills. Garces ate his way out of the league. McCarty couldn't catch up to a fastball. Remember the lows of the player's themselves.
I don't really dig Baseball America. I like Keith Law and his top 100. His mid-season top-50 he has Buxton 18th, Sano, 26th and Rosario 39th. He also said Arcia was close to the top 50. So those guys should all be in his top 100 next year. He is really high on Buxton and Sano. Though with Sano his defense translates to 1B or DH he thinks. He used to like Hicks a lot. I'm not sure where that stands now. He scouted Sano and Rosario this year and liked both but thought Rosario's approach wasn't great. He thinks Berrios is completly overrated based on the level of compeition he faced.
It will be hard for me to take any list seriously that leaves Arcia out of the top 100.
I think it will end up like this:
Top 30: Sano, Buxton.
30-60: Arcia, Hicks.
60-100: Rosario.
Fringe candidates: Gibson, Berrios.
I agree with this. The Twins should certainly have 5 in the 100. I would add Kepler in as another fringe. A 19 year old who just showed glimpses of a fifth tool may be a tempting late add. To be a little more specific, I would hope for this:Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp
15-25 Sano, Buxton
35-40 Hicks
60-75 Arcia, Rosario
Wow