Thread: KLAW's top 100 list is out.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

Looks fair. I'm assuming he's seen Gibson since his Tommy John. I think everyone is too low on Rosario and too high on Arcia. Rosario will ascend the system very quickly next season if he's not limited by injury. I feel it's possible that he could reach New Britain by late summer, but the Twins may hold him back because of the likely Ft. Myers playoffs. He rarely strikes out (which seems to hold most talented batters back), has outstanding contact, great power, and is pretty young at that. Remember too that he was the #2/#3 prospect in the system prior to the 2012.

How can people be too high on Arcia when he barely cracks the top 100 on many lists? Look at this guy's numbers:

18yo - Gulf Rookie Ball - .792 OPS, 187 PAs
19yo - Appy Rookie Ball - 1.096 OPS, 283 PAs
20yo - A Ball, A+ Ball - .866 OPS, 316 PAs
21yo - A+ Ball, AA Ball - .928 OPS, 534 PAs

The guy has been outstanding two years out of four and good the other two years. He's also been a youngster at every level. He'll be in AAA as a 22 year old by mid-season (at the latest). What more do you want out of the guy? The only real weakness in his game is the strikeout rate. Everything else is solid.

Also, Rosario is just one year younger than Arcia but is two levels behind him in the minors. Yes, the injury hurt Rosario but that's still a significant gap between the players.

Originally Posted by jtrinaldi

Rosario does not have Great Power. Sano has "Great Power". Rosario has Above Average power. Rosario should be on the fast track to move through the system, had he not been injured, he would have ended up in Fort Myers in August.

You're seriously going to 'correct' me on something like that? 34HRs in 2 seasons looks pretty damn good for a 19-20 year old. Keep in mind he'll get stronger with time. Most teenagers don't develop power until later on. Wouldn't be surprised if he became a 25-30HR guy in peak years. He's not a slugger, but the adjective I used could have been good, above average, whatever. I wasn't using scouting terminology. He can hit long balls just as good as anyone in our minors except for Sano and to me that's great. He's also a 5 tool player if he moves back to Center Field. The move to 2nd may be good organization wise, but it's a myth that it improves his prospect status. Sticking at second really doesn't take advantage of his arm. In a way I see him as a different version of Hicks. More power, more contact (minus) switch hitting, no down year (yet), less speed, and better at managing strikeouts. I'd give Hicks the advantage in the field (Hicks has a cannon, more experience, and speed+other things=range), but Eddie certainly could provide "above average" defense there.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

How can people be too high on Arcia when he barely cracks the top 100 on many lists? Look at this guy's numbers:

18yo - Gulf Rookie Ball - .792 OPS, 187 PAs
19yo - Appy Rookie Ball - 1.096 OPS, 283 PAs
20yo - A Ball, A+ Ball - .866 OPS, 316 PAs
21yo - A+ Ball, AA Ball - .928 OPS, 534 PAs

The guy has been outstanding two years out of four and good the other two years. He's also been a youngster at every level. He'll be in AAA as a 22 year old by mid-season (at the latest). What more do you want out of the guy? The only real weakness in his game is the strikeout rate. Everything else is solid.

Also, Rosario is just one year younger than Arcia but is two levels behind him in the minors. Yes, the injury hurt Rosario but that's still a significant gap between the players.

I love Arcia, but is he top 60 material? I don't know about that. I'd go 80s. You completely ignored defense by the way, which is exactly the reason why. Baseball is more than just hitting the ball often and far. It's why an average year from Denard Span was just as valuable as Josh Willingham's best season. I didn't say it in my last post, but I love tools if it isn't obvious. Sure it's a corner outfield spot, but I think defense should be valued everywhere. His arm is not very impressionable and he isn't quick nor fast. Back to tools now. That's 2 really good ones out of 5. Plus, he also racks a disciprine like you said. I think he'll be a fantastic clean up guy and is about as close to a sure thing as possible, but I look at the ceiling more than the floor. There's a lot that he isn't capable of bringing. The standards for an outfielder are pretty high and especially on a team with a system chock full of good ones.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

I love Arcia, but is he top 60 material? I don't know about that. I'd go 80s. You completely ignored defense by the way, which is exactly the reason why. Baseball is more than just hitting the ball often and far. It's why an average year from Denard Span was just as valuable as Josh Willingham's best season. I didn't say it in my last post, but I love tools if it isn't obvious. Sure it's a corner outfield spot, but I think defense should be valued everywhere. His arm is not very impressionable and he isn't quick nor fast. Back to tools now. That's 2 really good ones out of 5. Plus, he also racks a disciprine like you said. I think he'll be a fantastic clean up guy and is about as close to a sure thing as possible, but I look at the ceiling more than the floor.

I didn't bring up defense because he's a corner outfielder. By all accounts, he'll probably end up a mediocre defender. Not a lot to talk about there.

As for overall ranking, I don't get too hot and bothered about that (plus, that 60-something ranking is far and away the highest I've seen Oswaldo). Where you put Arcia and Rosario really depends on how you rate potential versus upper level performance. I tend to value performance over potential so I lean toward Arcia.

Hate to post 3 in a row, but one more thing. I'm pretty much sold that this year we'll find out so much more about Rosario, Sano, Vargas, etc. Sure, we find out more every year and that sound like a generalization. To further elaborate, Ft. Myers has really been a difficult step for quite a few guys in the past (Namely Morales, Hicks). That may be a lot different because of the constant roster changes, but I feel like there's still a negative stigma about the place. It just seems like a benchmark for some reason.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

Hate to post 3 in a row, but one more thing. I'm pretty much sold that this year we'll find out so much more about Rosario, Sano, Vargas, etc. Sure, we find out more every year and that sound like a generalization. To further elaborate, Ft. Myers has really been a difficult step for quite a few guys in the past (Namely Morales, Hicks). That may be a lot different because of the constant roster changes, but I feel like there's still a negative stigma about the place. It just seems like a benchmark for some reason.

Ft. Myers is definitely a big step. It isn't like the Midwest League is typically a hitters' paradise, but the FSL is where hitting prospects (and most of the nation's elderly) go to die.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I didn't bring up defense because he's a corner outfielder. By all accounts, he'll probably end up a mediocre defender. Not a lot to talk about there.

As for overall ranking, I don't get too hot and bothered about that (plus, that 60-something ranking is far and away the highest I've seen Oswaldo). Where you put Arcia and Rosario really depends on how you rate potential versus upper level performance. I tend to value performance over potential so I lean toward Arcia.

He reminds me a lot of Jason Kubel when looking at both their previous minor league history. Same build, same handedness, same position, both fast risers, and both absolutely crushed New Britain. They look even closer when you throw out that Kubel decided to steal bases for one season. Arcia may not be as good a prospect that Kubel ever was, but professionally it could be different. As an eerie potential forecast, we can see now that Jason has only had one season where he provided more than 1 WAR. His contact has never been quite what it was then though and he doesn't have much to fall back on now (tools!) to become more than a minor upgrade.

Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

Ft. Myers is definitely a big step. It isn't like the Midwest League is typically a hitters' paradise, but the FSL is where hitting prospects (and most of the nation's elderly) go to die.

Your post was funny and I loved it! The Florida, old people connection simply genius!

We have two legit center fielders and no middle infield prospects. The move for Rosario seems pretty self explanatory. His bat will play much better at 2nd than center. Many around baseball also think that sano will end up in the outfield as he may outgrow thirdbase. Rosario definitely provides more value both as a prospect and to the twins organization as a mi guy. That is just my opinion but I will bet most twinsdaily members will agree Rosario needs to stay at 2nd to maximize his value.

Originally Posted by Twins Twerp

We have two legit center fielders and no middle infield prospects. The move for Rosario seems pretty self explanatory. His bat will play much better at 2nd than center. Many around baseball also think that sano will end up in the outfield as he may outgrow thirdbase. Rosario definitely provides more value both as a prospect and to the twins organization as a mi guy. That is just my opinion but I will bet most twinsdaily members will agree Rosario needs to stay at 2nd to maximize his value.

Maximize his value for the Twins as in "an organizational plus". Just about any place else though and it's unchanged and could possibly be higher. And since no one can predict the future, maybe the Twins develop an addiction to trading outfielders, some don't pan out, and he's the man for the job? I'm just thinking that he's not much off Aaron Hicks if in Center.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

How can people be too high on Arcia when he barely cracks the top 100 on many lists? Look at this guy's numbers:

18yo - Gulf Rookie Ball - .792 OPS, 187 PAs
19yo - Appy Rookie Ball - 1.096 OPS, 283 PAs
20yo - A Ball, A+ Ball - .866 OPS, 316 PAs
21yo - A+ Ball, AA Ball - .928 OPS, 534 PAs

The guy has been outstanding two years out of four and good the other two years. He's also been a youngster at every level. He'll be in AAA as a 22 year old by mid-season (at the latest). What more do you want out of the guy? The only real weakness in his game is the strikeout rate. Everything else is solid.

Also, Rosario is just one year younger than Arcia but is two levels behind him in the minors. Yes, the injury hurt Rosario but that's still a significant gap between the players.

I agree. I wonder if Arcia isn't punished because of his pedigree, and his relative unknownness before surging through the Twins system. I just don't see what there is NOT to like about Arcia, beyond some questions about his defense and health.

I can't even write a response to this nonsense. I've tried different ways, but ultimately I still end up wanting to punch babies. Rosario needs to improve on his defense at 2b... 2b.... 2b to be as good of a prospect as Arcia. The guy OPSed almost 1000 as a 21 yo in AA bro, those are some big numbers. A lot of prospects feast on lower level pitching, to me AA is the first big test.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

He reminds me a lot of Jason Kubel when looking at both their previous minor league history. Same build, same handedness, same position, both fast risers, and both absolutely crushed New Britain. They look even closer when you throw out that Kubel decided to steal bases for one season. Arcia may not be as good a prospect that Kubel ever was, but professionally it could be different. As an eerie potential forecast, we can see now that Jason has only had one season where he provided more than 1 WAR. His contact has never been quite what it was then though and he doesn't have much to fall back on now (tools!) to become more than a minor upgrade.

Jason Kubel would have been a very different player if his knee hasn't exploded in the AFL. IMO, Arcia is closer to pre-injury Kubel than post-injury Kubel. If Kubel still had mobility and wasn't a liability in the OF, he's a very valuable player. Over his career, his oWAR is 7.7 while his dWAR is -8.8. That's a huge discrepancy and if Arcia can be merely a mediocre defender, his value jumps way over Kubel.

As for Kubel being a better prospect... Well, I don't agree with that at all. Jason hit a little better at every level but he was also a level behind Arcia at the same age (before the injury). Once you factor in the age and level difference, they start to look like the same player and you might even give the nod to Arcia. It will be interesting to see what he does repeating at New Britain this season.

He's repeating at NB? Where did you hear this? Not that it matters too much, but I'd like to see him in AAA instead... if so that will really tell you how the Twins feel about AAA right now.

Originally Posted by Badsmerf

He's repeating at NB? Where did you hear this? Not that it matters too much, but I'd like to see him in AAA instead... if so that will really tell you how the Twins feel about AAA right now.

I thought I read somewhere that he was repeating AA. I could be wrong.

A lot of this we will see in spring training. I do not think Parmalee is a sure thing, so I expect Arcia to be here this year. Trade Morneau if Parmalee looks like the replacement, bring up Arcia if Parmalee is not. This is Parmalees last chance to impress. Twins will try and resign Morneau if Parmalee does not shine.
Hope they push Rosario a little more. Defense could be an issue in not pushing, but Twins need him here sooner than later. Middle infield is a black hole at this time.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

You're seriously going to 'correct' me on something like that? 34HRs in 2 seasons looks pretty damn good for a 19-20 year old. Keep in mind he'll get stronger with time. Most teenagers don't develop power until later on. Wouldn't be surprised if he became a 25-30HR guy in peak years. He's not a slugger, but the adjective I used could have been good, above average, whatever. I wasn't using scouting terminology. He can hit long balls just as good as anyone in our minors except for Sano and to me that's great. He's also a 5 tool player if he moves back to Center Field. The move to 2nd may be good organization wise, but it's a myth that it improves his prospect status. Sticking at second really doesn't take advantage of his arm. In a way I see him as a different version of Hicks. More power, more contact (minus) switch hitting, no down year (yet), less speed, and better at managing strikeouts. I'd give Hicks the advantage in the field (Hicks has a cannon, more experience, and speed+other things=range), but Eddie certainly could provide "above average" defense there.

Scouts haven't really been that high on Rosario's power as you. He had a ton of power in rookie ball but his ISO fell .150 points when he went up to A ball. There are plenty of players in our system with better power than him - Sano, Vargas, Arcia, Walker, Hicks, Kepler, Harrison to name a few. I tended to think Rosario was pretty overrated by our fanbase which was one reason I was so happy to see Klaw rank him so high but he still should be our 7th best prospect.

And the comparison to Hicks doesn't really hold up either. At 18, both were in rookie ball and Hicks was the better player. At 19, Rosario repeated the level while Hicks was promoted to A ball (and ranked #39 by BA). At 20, Hicks repeated Aball (and was ranked #19) while Rosario was promoted there. Hicks had the better season overall at age 20. Hicks down year was as a 21 year old at A+.

Rosario as an outfielder is a good prospect. As a 2B, he is a great prospect. I do care about his slugging, but don't care as much if that slugging comes from doubles or homers.

There is no disputing what Arcia has done. There's also ZERO reason to have him start in New Britain. I would be flabbergasted if they do that. What on earth is the damn point in doing that? AAA matters, even if some here are right and that it matters minimally. Benson, Hicks, and Arcia should all be in AAA starting in the OF. Full stop.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

You're seriously going to 'correct' me on something like that? 34HRs in 2 seasons looks pretty damn good for a 19-20 year old. Keep in mind he'll get stronger with time. Most teenagers don't develop power until later on. Wouldn't be surprised if he became a 25-30HR guy in peak years. He's not a slugger, but the adjective I used could have been good, above average, whatever. I wasn't using scouting terminology. He can hit long balls just as good as anyone in our minors except for Sano and to me that's great. He's also a 5 tool player if he moves back to Center Field. The move to 2nd may be good organization wise, but it's a myth that it improves his prospect status. Sticking at second really doesn't take advantage of his arm. In a way I see him as a different version of Hicks. More power, more contact (minus) switch hitting, no down year (yet), less speed, and better at managing strikeouts. I'd give Hicks the advantage in the field (Hicks has a cannon, more experience, and speed+other things=range), but Eddie certainly could provide "above average" defense there.

Perfect example of reading too much into MiLB stats, especially rookie level ones. Rosario isn't going to launch 25-30 HR's at his peak (that IS a slugger). Maybe 20 at his peak, but where the "power" will show is racking up doubles. As for his arm, it's not a cannon, think a bit better than Span's arm (which is below average, but not close to Revere territory). He'll likely make more contact than Hicks (better avg.), but probably won't match the OBP.

I recommend checking this out: Scouting Report: Eddie Rosario (2B) | Baseball Prospect Nation

He doesn't have a slugger's body and there's not much room to add on strength. He's 6 foot 170 lbs-ish, and looks smaller than that in person to be quite honest:

DSC00859.jpg

Bat speed can do a lot for you, but without large(r) body mass behind it, it's not nearly as potent as you think, doing more for "hitter" attributes than "power" ones.

If I'm describing him, Span is a good comp, with less on-base skill and a bit more double power, but not outrageous HR power. I also don't think he'll be as good of a defender in CF (can handle it if need be), and he still needs a lot of work to stick at 2B.

As for comparing Arcia to Kubel (pre-injury). Kubel absolutely RAKED, and was thought of as one of the best pure hitters in the minors before he blew out the knee. I don't consider Arcia to be in that lofty of hitting territory quite yet. I like the "Kubel-light" name I've seen thrown around.

As far as hopes and dreams go, perhaps Dustin Pedroia is what we should be comparing Rosario to.