Draft Targets

i'm thinking manaea is the best player and the guy that stands out to the twins the most but i have a hard time seeing him get past the cubs, who are probably even more pitching starved then we are. there will be a second tier of pitchers that emerge - last year it was gausman and zimmer - and this year a couple of guys to keep an eye on are karsten whitson and dillon overton, along with jonathan crawford. if the twins can't justify a college arm, an up-the-midlle prep guy like jp crawford or the catcher from oklahoma could sway them.

If Appel fell to #4, would he demand over slot to sign him, again?

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Originally Posted by Vervehound

i'm thinking manaea is the best player and the guy that stands out to the twins the most but i have a hard time seeing him get past the cubs, who are probably even more pitching starved then we are. there will be a second tier of pitchers that emerge - last year it was gausman and zimmer - and this year a couple of guys to keep an eye on are karsten whitson and dillon overton, along with jonathan crawford. if the twins can't justify a college arm, an up-the-midlle prep guy like jp crawford or the catcher from oklahoma could sway them.

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I think Meadows and JP Crawford are going to be the consensus 1&2 draft day.

If you're the Twins you hope one of the top pitchers either Manaea, Stanek or Appel fall to you. If that doesn't work I'd be fine with Frazier, Meadows or even Kohl Stewart who could be an intriguing prospect who plays multiple positions including pitcher.

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Originally Posted by Joe

I think Meadows and JP Crawford are going to be the consensus 1&2 draft day.

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possibly. but only if manaea regresses. appel is the wildcard and i think don't think stanek is as good as others do. i think one of whitson/overton/wahl will go in the top few picks as well. crawford would definitely be on my shortlist and you know the twins will be following hard this spring.

Some teams already have Crawford on their board as an OF. If the Twins share that belief, he won't go #4. If he can convince a team - any team - that he can stick at SS, then we're having a different discussion. He'll have an interesting spring, to be sure

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Originally Posted by nfisch22

If you're the Twins you hope one of the top pitchers either Manaea, Stanek or Appel fall to you. If that doesn't work I'd be fine with Frazier, Meadows or even Kohl Stewart who could be an intriguing prospect who plays multiple positions including pitcher.

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I agree with pretty much all of this other than Stewart. Steweart is out until April with a shoulder injury, and he has a very strong commitment.


He is not likely to go top 5, so the Twins won't be looking at him seriously anyways.

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Some teams already have Crawford on their board as an OF. If the Twins share that belief, he won't go #4. If he can convince a team - any team - that he can stick at SS, then we're having a different discussion. He'll have an interesting spring, to be sure

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I just want to ask, where you read anything about him ending up in Centerfield, or if that is just your opinion?

Here is a quote from the ESPN Draft blog about his potential as a SS

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Crawford is similar to Mercado but has a more projectable frame with more current strength and bats left-handed. Crawford isn't as polished at the plate but brings above-average speed, defense and arm strength to the table in an enticing package that can stick at shortstop long-term. Crawford loads his hands higher and deeper and will bar out at times, causing contact and timing issues but has a chance to surpass Mercado in time.

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I would have no problem if the Twins selected Appel with their top pick. I see a lot of draftniks this year are not very high on him, but he's always in the discussion of top prospects and clearly has nice tools. It appears the Twins would love to add a top college arm and most draft sites list 3 top guys. Of course the Twins are picking at #4, so no guarantee to get any of these. Right now my feeling is: 1-Manaea, 2-Stanek, and 3-Appel. If all three are gone my next guy is the HS outfielder Frazier. I know the system is well stocked with outfielders, but I think you go with best player and right now that's how I see it. Still, we have to let the spring play out and I'm sure the rankings will change. Someone will have an injury, regress, or take a big leap forward. Maybe a top shortstop or catcher will enter the conversation which would be nice. I'm certainly looking forward to draft day as always, especially with another high pick this year (unfortunately due to another difficult season). It should be fun!

They should take BPA: best PITCHER available. After that they need to look at MI and C.

someone needs to be fired if the Twins take an outfielder with that pick. None of the OFers in this draft can clearly separate themselves from the others. The Twins should be taking a pitcher, middle infielder, or catcher, with an emphasis on the first two.

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Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

someone needs to be fired if the Twins take an outfielder with that pick. None of the OFers in this draft can clearly separate themselves from the others. The Twins should be taking a pitcher, middle infielder, or catcher, with an emphasis on the first two.

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The top 5 is pretty much set, unless Ball establishes himself, instead of entering the draft as either a dual sport Athlete. The outfielders you are talking about are Meadows and Frazier, who both have a great ceiling. Just because they cannot separate themselves from one another does not mean that they are not good.
The Twins second pick is likely where they can get there catcher.

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Originally Posted by jtrinaldi

I just want to ask, where you read anything about him ending up in Centerfield, or if that is just your opinion?

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Personally, I think he'll be given every chance to stay at SS by the team that drafts him. That's my opinion. Between different sites and different conversations, people are still questioning it. When there are questions already - only 4 projected SS came were prep draftees - it's a legitimate question.

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Originally Posted by jtrinaldi

The top 5 is pretty much set

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I disagree. Perfect Game and Baseball America don't even share the Top 5 prospects. PG has Meadows #3 in his high school class and Baseball America has him #3 overall, as an example.

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Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard

Personally, I think he'll be given every chance to stay at SS by the team that drafts him. That's my opinion. Between different sites and different conversations, people are still questioning it. When there are questions already - only 4 projected SS came were prep draftees - it's a legitimate question.



I disagree. Perfect Game and Baseball America don't even share the Top 5 prospects. PG has Meadows #3 in his high school class and Baseball America has him #3 overall, as an example.

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Ah, I see, you have never actually seen JP play, and forming your opinion just to start conversation.

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Originally Posted by jtrinaldi

Ah, I see, you have never actually seen JP play, and forming your opinion just to start conversation.

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EDIT: While I can be snarky, I'm not going to be...

Yes, I have seen him play.

I don't know if Crawford will stick at SS or not.

I'm simply trying to present the facts: Not everyone is convinced the he can stick at SS.

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Originally Posted by Ultima Ratio

If Appel fell to #4, would he demand over slot to sign him, again?

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Assuming he has a simular season to last year with no new injury concerns, then yes he will. Boras' job is to get the most money for his clients. Boras will start negotiations by say Appel should have gone 1-1 and should get paid like he's the 1st overall draft pick. He'll than wait it out watching how the Twins spend their money on their other picks ( if I remember correctly, because Appel is a college senior he's signing deadline might be later than the other players) and then Boras will make a "compromise" the amount above slot the team can spend before they loss a draft pick, but still above the amount the team gets fined for going past team budjet. All the while, talking about Appel wiliness to go to Independent ball or excitement about the prospect of playing in Japan. So no, he won't come cheap. On the other hand if Appel is injured at some point or has a down year, than he would sign for slot. Both sides will have leverage, it how they are willing to use it which will determine the outcome and amount.

If he gets injured, he won't go high if he wants slot... I think most would be fine giving appel whatever is left of the cap space available, but if that was the case, he should have signed this year. The extra 2M or whatever it was is not nearly worth the year of FA he lost.

I just don't see Appel going over slot. I think he has to have been chastened by last year's experience (and if not, he's way too stupid to be at Stanford), and he also has to realize that there's nowhere else to go if doesn't sign. He has to be aware of the indy ball horror stories. He has to realize that his failure to get paid last year has already put a dent in his potential career earnings. He has to know that teams are already looking at him warily. I expect a more pliant Appel this time around.

I really think the Twins - and many other teams - will use the approach the Astros used last year. They will have a specific amount that they are willing to spend and shop it to advisers. If they can't get an assurance that the player will sign for X amount of dollars, they'll take someone they know that will.

In the past, if you don't sign a pick, you get a comp pick the next year and really that's all. Now, you get the comp pick, but you lose the money in the spending pool which you're seeing is becoming a very, very big deal. It's too big of a risk to not be able to sign a guy.

The Twins pick will be worth $4.5m. They will be able to spend about $4.7m on that pick w/o penalty (independent of the other picks). If its the day of the draft, I get Boras on the phone and say, "Scott, we like Appel and we're willing to go up to $4.7m for him. If we don't have a verbal agreement by the time we hang up the phone, we'll look elsewhere." I'd also do that with a half-dozen other guys, adjusting the offer, of course.

Im sure Jeremy will touch on this in his writeup (If not, you're welcome for the idea), but they have to go best player available. Manaea may end up being the best in this draft, but I think he will be gone before we pick. Stanek (if I remember correctly) isnt the hardest thrower (92-93), and that goes away from what we've been doing with pitchers. I think all the concerns about Appel (arm wear throwing 150 pitches a game, Boras, etc) I hope they pass on him if he's there. That leaves the two GA outfielders...I am actually hoping one of them falls to us, with no preference at this point between Meadows and Frazier. Despite the OF prospects we have now, I think they have the highest ceilings of anyone in the draft and that is the sort of thing we should be looking for now...none of the SPs being discussed are thought of as true #1 starters, which should be the potential for a pitcher taken #4 overall. Having too much top end talent is not an issue...and they should go for that talent, even if it's at a perceived position of strength with the current minor league crop.

I think they should target that hard-throwing high schooler whose season hasn't started yet.