Thread: Powers: Kepler ist Wunderbar

Tom Powers of the Pioneer Press has a feel-good story about 20-year-old Twins prospect Max Kepler.

When he was 16, the Twins offered him $800,000 to sign a professional contract. And now the young man projects as a middle-of-the-order slugger with a sweet swing that is the talk of the organization. Say hello to Maximilian Kepler-Rozycki -- that's Max Kepler to you.

What is a successful year for Kepler this year? Does he need to have a big year in Cedar Rapids? Is it a step backwards if he doesn't end the season in High-A?

Tom Powers: Minnesota Twins' German prospect considered wunderbar - TwinCities.com

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

What is a successful year for Kepler this year? Does he need to have a big year in Cedar Rapids? Is it a step backwards if he doesn't end the season in High-A?

I opine that...
1) .280/.360/.450
2) He needs to produce the numbers above, and play steady defense. A big year is not necessary.
3) Apparently, no one gets out of a full year at low-A for this organization. So, no. It would be normal. (Yawn) Which is more reason he does not need to have a big year in CR. He will be playing in the FSL in 2014 (probably the whole year, unless our corner OF's get traded)

Crossing fingers he plays in AA during 2014

I'm excited to see his results this season. I think we will really get a picture of what we got with him. Its near impossible to throw out stat lines since the jump in levels is pretty significant. I'm hoping for a .900 OPS with 20 SB lol. That would be fun.

Mike Newman at fangraphs loves Kepler. Thinks he's a better prospect than Bubba Starling. God, I hope that's true. Sickels compared him to a young Morneau. (Sorry I can't find the link). Klaw said he thinks he'll be on his top 100 list next year (ditto).

I think he'll have a break out year and be on most top 100 lists next season. The things that hold prospects back the most (IMHO) is strike zone judgement and he seems to have great discipline.

He needs a solid season at Cedar Rapids. I would love for him to get a taste of A+ baseball near the end of the season, but that is doubtful. With even a .800 OPS he will be jumpiing up on prospect lists.

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

He needs a solid season at Cedar Rapids. I would love for him to get a taste of A+ baseball near the end of the season, but that is doubtful. With even a .800 OPS he will be jumpiing up on prospect lists.

Yeah, nobody gets out of a full-year at low-A, right?

Originally Posted by mnfanforlife

Yeah, nobody gets out of a full-year at low-A, right?

See Arcia, Oswaldo.

I had a chance to ask Paul Molitor what he thought about Kepler and he said he wasn't as high on him as a lot of other people in the organization are high on him. He said he is pretty soft yet and needs to toughen up. He thought he might only become a 15-20 homer guy but with a lot of doubles. He also said that could change because he is still a kid.

Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

See Arcia, Oswaldo.

There are exceptions to every trend! Thank you, I have hope for Max

Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

See Arcia, Oswaldo.

It also took an Arcia injury rehab stint in Ft. Myers with the Twins basically saying "screw it, let him stay there now that he's healthy" to get him there.

I think what Arcia did in his month in Beloit made it pretty clear he could move up. But the trend is correct, very few young players move past the Midwest League. So of course it would not be taking a step back to not get up to Hi-A.

One thing that will be interesting will be to see if the Twins protect him following the season. He, Sano and Polanco were the high profile international signings that year. Sano is a given, but will Kepler do enough to force the Twins to protect him, and/or would another team really take him at this stage of his career.

I ranked Kepler #10, but I'm not the highest on him either. I've seen/heard a lot of what Molitor is talking about. That said, he has the tools and the athleticism, the genes and potentially the skills. I dont' expect an .800 OPS in Cedar Rapids in 2013, but probably close. Not a lot of homers, maybe 10. His double count will be what I will be watching. He's got talent, but I think we'll need to temper expectations. He is not in the Arcia, Rosario, Sano class of hitting prospect by any means. Maybe he will get there in 2014.

I missed something, but after 2013 will it have been 5 years that they need to be protected?

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

I think what Arcia did in his month in Beloit made it pretty clear he could move up. But the trend is correct, very few young players move past the Midwest League. So of course it would not be taking a step back to not get up to Hi-A.

Isn't the whole 'Twins don't promote young players' schtick getting old? The Twins have had very few young players that have actually deserved midseason promotions in the last decade. I've asked before but nobody has come up with a good list of players that were undeservedly held back in the low minors.

It will be interesting to see how many HR's Kepler can hit. Early scouting reports had him to getting a lot of loft on the ball and projected him as a GB/LD hitter. I kind of compared him as a lesser Joe Mauer except that he'll player in a corner OF spot.

Originally Posted by kab21

Isn't the whole 'Twins don't promote young players' schtick getting old? The Twins have had very few young players that have actually deserved midseason promotions in the last decade. I've asked before but nobody has come up with a good list of players that were undeservedly held back in the low minors.

It will be interesting to see how many HR's Kepler can hit. Early scouting reports had him to getting a lot of loft on the ball and projected him as a GB/LD hitter. I kind of compared him as a lesser Joe Mauer except that he'll player in a corner OF spot.

The only one I can think of is Slama. He could have moved up much quicker. Other than that, I don't remember any in the last decade. An argument could be made for Nate Roberts, but his numbers at Beloit in half seasons weren't completely overwhelming.

With Kepler's background it makes too much sense to go slowly with him. The point is to maximize the development of young players, not to have a race to the majors.

Originally Posted by kab21

Isn't the whole 'Twins don't promote young players' schtick getting old? The Twins have had very few young players that have actually deserved midseason promotions in the last decade. I've asked before but nobody has come up with a good list of players that were undeservedly held back in the low minors.

It will be interesting to see how many HR's Kepler can hit. Early scouting reports had him to getting a lot of loft on the ball and projected him as a GB/LD hitter. I kind of compared him as a lesser Joe Mauer except that he'll player in a corner OF spot.

I could not agree with the "lesser-mauer" comp more....Kepler could hit more bombs than Joe, maybe. The only reason they would not add him to the 40-man, is if he is traded or flops face first in low-A, in my opinion

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

The only one I can think of is Slama. He could have moved up much quicker. Other than that, I don't remember any in the last decade. An argument could be made for Nate Roberts, but his numbers at Beloit in half seasons weren't completely overwhelming.

The whole thing with Slama is confusing but he was already old. He doesn't exactly strengthen the 'if Trout was a Twin he would still be in High A' argument.

I love Kepler as a prospect. He is the guy I'm looking forward to watching again the most next week while I'm down at Spring Training.

Max Kepler is a great young fellow. It looks like he's quit growing and is maturing. He's got a nice swing, and is learning the k zone. He's good defensively. I can see him at CR for the entire year, and think he'll just keep improving. I see no sense in hurrying him along. He'll get there.

I just spent the past week watching all the prospects down in Ft. Myers. The one who impressed me the most was Mr. Kepler. I remember him from 4 years ago when he arrived as a tall skinny kid who I laughed at when he made some futile attempts at bunting a baseball down there. However, even back then, he had some impressive raw power. When I saw him this year he was all filled out and raking. During the first game that I saw him play, he hit a ball up the middle about a foot to the left of the pitcher. I kid you not, if that ball was straight on at the pitcher there is no chance in hades that he would have been able to react. The kid would have been in a world of hurt. It appears to me that the outfield in Cedar Rapids will be Kepler, Buxton, Walker. I was also impressed by his speed and now he bunts real well. However I don't think you'll see him bunt much. Very interested to see how he fares this year.