Thread: Draft prospects

I think you draft best player whenever possible, but look at need if someone is close. The fact that Appel or Zimmer could fulfill a need in 2 years has got to be appealing. Unless Buxton's ability was so off the charts better.

Ratcliff has stated that the Twins are looking to draft a college pitcher with their first round pick. I would be very surprised if they did not draft a pitcher--you don't get many chances to draft a top of the rotation starter. I would also be surprised if they did not use their sandwich selections like that did in 2011: select a hard-throwing high school pitcher (like Boyd) and a power-hitting high school hitter (like Harrison). They have two second round picks: perhaps a college catcher and another college starting pitcher. In June I get to see how far off of the mark my predictions are.

I think you have to draft a player at #2 that has a chance to be great. If the college pitchers available profile as future #2 or #3 starters, i think you go with a higher upside position player. If Buxton is there, you don't pass him up for a future mid-rotation starter just because that player will be ready sooner.

The Twins already have Hendricks, Wimmers, Gibson, Boer, Salcedo in the pipeline that profile as 3-4 starters with a chance to be a #2 if something goes dramatically right. Apple and Zimmer both have some serious questions including declining velocity in recent outings. Gausman isn't being discussed above pick 7 or 8 by most of the pundits from what I've seen. None of these three seem like a very sure bet to be even a future #2 starter so I question how much of an upgrade they'd really be over what the Twins already have. At this point if the twins go with pitching at pick #2 I'd rather see them go with Max Fried, at least there's some projection left to dream on and he's left-handed.

Ya, Buxton is playing very weak competition, and with that weak competition, he still hasn't hit a HR yet this season...

Best pitcher should be the choice. They have never in their history traded great prospects for expensive players, and does anyone think they would?

Originally Posted by Steve Lein

Ya, Buxton is playing very weak competition, and with that weak competition, he still hasn't hit a HR yet this season...

HS home run numbers probably aren't a good judge of future talent. Nearly every baseball scouting cite - Klaw, BA, Prospectus, Minorleagueball etc all have Buxton as one of the top possible picks, many thinking he should go 1-1.

The problem with projecting power in high school kids is that it is basically based on their frame, not their approach at the plate. Joe Mauer and Delmon Young were #1 overall HS picks. Both projected to have a ton of power and neither are mashers dispite the fact that the size of their bodies say they should be.

I wouldn't be concerned about any of the pitching prospects velocity just yet, it's only mid April. Velocity picks up as the weather gets warmer.

Would we really be excited to draft a futre #3 starter with the #2 pick? If Buxton never develops huge power, he's still got speed and a cannon arm. You can't draft for need unless you're on the cusp of something great. The Twins need to take the best possible player available, no matter the position.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

The problem with projecting power in high school kids is that it is basically based on their frame, not their approach at the plate. Joe Mauer and Delmon Young were #1 overall HS picks. Both projected to have a ton of power and neither are mashers dispite the fact that the size of their bodies say they should be.

I wouldn't be concerned about any of the pitching prospects velocity just yet, it's only mid April. Velocity picks up as the weather gets warmer.

And yet Mauer became one of the top players in baseball. Projection is a big part of scouting/development. It is what it is and the Twins don't seem concerned about taking high school kids. In the last 15 drafts, they've used their first pick on a high school position player 9 times - six made the majors (Cuddy, Mauer, Span, Revere, Parmelee and Plouffe), two washed out (Moses and Garbe) and one is still in the system (Hicks).

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

And yet Mauer became one of the top players in baseball. Projection is a big part of scouting/development. It is what it is and the Twins don't seem concerned about taking high school kids. In the last 15 drafts, they've used their first pick on a high school position player 9 times - six made the majors (Cuddy, Mauer, Span, Revere, Parmelee and Plouffe), two washed out (Moses and Garbe) and one is still in the system (Hicks).

Moses washed out but i think it was somewhat due to a heart? condition. Hard to blame Twins there if not pre-existing.

Originally Posted by shawntheroad

Moses washed out but i think it was somewhat due to a heart? condition. Hard to blame Twins there if not pre-existing.

I think I remember hearing that about Moses too, not sure if that was what forced him out of the game but I remember he had it. Didn't Garbe have night blindness or something crazy like that?

Another thing you have to consider is when the Twins actually have a realistic chance of competing again. What I mean by that is how advanced are the top prospects, and when is the likely ETA. This is a similar situation to the Brewers when the produced Hart,Braun,Fielder,Weeks. Those guys came up within 3 years of eachother, and then were able to compete at a high level. The Twins have Parmelee and Henriks up right now, if they can contirbute decently now, then the rebuilding process could be anchored by those 2 in the future. Hicks is likely to be up in late 2013/start of 2014 with Salcedo likely a year or 2 behind him, followed by Sano and Rosario likely in 2015. If the Twins draft Appel he likely would arrive in the Majors in 2014 as a starter. IF the Twins draft Buxton and put him on the "Hicks,Boyd,Harrison Route" he would play 2012 in EX.ST followed by instructs. IN 2013 he would spend a full year in low A ball. In 2014 He would spend a FULL year in A+ ball, in 2015 he would reach AA likely for the full year. Then if he spends half a year in AAA ball and dominates his ETA would be 2016 All star break. The thing that makes this pick interesting is that Appel is that Appel is essentially 3 years above Buxton, and he is obviously more polished. He would likely start his first full year in AA.

If the Twins draft Buxton here is what the development to the majors would look like.
2013: Hicks reaches majors sometime in middle of year.
2014: Salcedo,Arcia reaches Majors
2015: Rosario/Sano reach majors.
2016: Boyd/Harrison/Goodrum
2017: Buxton reaches majors.
This is a rough example of how much longer it would take for the Twins to see Buxton produce in the majors if they take him over Appel.


If the Twins draft Appel
2013: Hicks reaches majors
2014: Salcedo, Appel,Arica reach the majors
2015 Sano and Rosario reach the majors.
2016: Boyd,Harrison,Goodrum reach majors.

Drafting Appel would expediate the Twins rebuilding process, and make a core 4 in between the next 2 years


If you need me to elaborate more just ask.

A #2 overall pick, even if drafted out of HS, should take less than 4 or 5 years to reach the bigs. Mauer was drafted in '01 and debuted opening day '04. If the Twins take Buxton there's no reason (I'm making the assumption that he stays healthy and puts up solid numbers in the minors) that he can't debut sometime in 2015. That being said, I would prefer the Twins take Appel. I agree with those that say a team should draft best player avaliable, but to me it is not 100% clear who the best player is so I would prefer the Twins go by need.

The BPA crowd is overlooking the fact that it is impossible to tell who amongst the top . . . whole bunch who is going to be the best, especially when comparing high school to college players. The draft is such a crap shoot. The Twins primary need is a good starter who should be ready within three years max.

The Farm system light. We need more advanced draftees. I don't know the players... I just think that you have to go college because they will be more advanced.

I understand fully the "Take the best player available" argument, and agree that 99% of the time this is the route that an MLB team should take in the draft.

BUT,

I also 100% believe that this season, with the #2 pick, that the Twins have to use that 1% exception, and go for a pitcher with ace ceiling no matter what with their second pick. They aren't going to spend the money on a free agent or trade to bring one in, so they HAVE TO do it in the draft. Theoretically, they're likely never going to get a better opportunity than this, so they HAVE TO go with the "Best Pitcher", not necessarily the "Best Player".

Also consider, that the sooner they draft an (hopefully) Ace type pitcher, the quicker he gets to the big leagues to help Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau out during their prime...

Originally Posted by shanewahl

Buxton is the no. 1 pick, easily, And the Astros will take him. The Twins should take Appel. He goes to FTM immediately.

You mean immediately on August 16th, knowing that he and most of the draft picks will sign at the very last minute.

Originally Posted by jtrinaldi

2013: Hicks reaches majors sometime in middle of year.
2014: Salcedo,Arcia reaches Majors

The problem with this is that the Twins have control of Willingham and Span at least until 2014 and Revere and Plouffe until 2017. Unless there are some trades, Hicks and Arcia will be blocked. Add Benson to the equation (team control until at least 2018) and the numbers game gets ugly.

That's why trading Span soon, is a good thing IMHO

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

You mean immediately on August 16th, knowing that he and most of the draft picks will sign at the very last minute.

Hopefully the holdout is a thing of the past with the new draft allowance. There will not be that much room to negotiate, and the players know that for every dime they try to squeeze from the team, one of their new teammates just got screwed.